The New RAV4 EV

[AnOutsider]

yeAh my wife doesn't believe Tesla will deliver on the model s. We keep coming back to "how can they do it when everyone else can't get above 100?"

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[Norbert]

We keep coming back to "how can they do it when everyone else can't get above 100?"

Somehow I was assuming you have a Roadster...

 

[Robert.Boston]

We keep coming back to "how can they do it when everyone else can't get above 100?"

It's the hamsters in the frunk. :wink:

 

[AnOutsider]

Somehow I was assuming you have a Roadster...

No sir, tho we did talk with some owners at the event who reassured her of the range they get. Now she's not convinced the bigger sedan can do it.

I I told her she's not allowed to ride in it if Tesla delivers. I'm evil enough to follow through on it too!

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[VolkerP]

I wish I knew what market research is showing that 100 miles of nominal cruising range is the sweet spot. We collectively seem to think that that's too short -- not a lot too short, but light.

I think it's the magic of the three-digit number. To the Canadians, 160km of range would be "the same" as 150km range, but 93 miles is a major let down from 100.
If a mile were 1.8km (like a nautical mile), car makers would stretch a little (or lie a little more blatantly) and we still would see "100 miles range" appear all over the place.

Consider you would buy a car advertised for "100 mph top speed" and later you find out the spec is 99mph. How would that feel?

 

[stopcrazypp]

I think it's the magic of the three-digit number. To the Canadians, 160km of range would be "the same" as 150km range, but 93 miles is a major let down from 100.
If a mile were 1.8km (like a nautical mile), car makers would stretch a little (or lie a little more blatantly) and we still would see "100 miles range" appear all over the place.

Consider you would buy a car advertised for "100 mph top speed" and later you find out the spec is 99mph. How would that feel?

It's like the $1.00 vs $0.99 advertising trick, except reversed.

 

[Doug_G]

To the Canadians, 160km of range would be "the same" as 150km range, but 93 miles is a major let down from 100.

Perhaps so, but as a Canadian I'm mile/km bilingual, and no matter what units are used it's simply not enough! Sure, you could look at my car's log and see that on many days I do less than 40 km. But there's also a pretty good percentage where it's 80-150 km. And there's nowhere to charge here except in my garage.

 

[JRP3]

Since I drive a 50 mile max EV I wouldn't know what to do with 100 miles of range :biggrin: I do think a reliable 100 mile range is necessary for greater general acceptance, 150 may be the sweet spot.

 

[EVNow]

I wish I knew what market research is showing that 100 miles of nominal cruising range is the sweet spot. We collectively seem to think that that's too short -- not a lot too short, but light.

That is the sweet spot now for "mass market" pricing.

 

[Norbert]

No sir, tho we did talk with some owners at the event who reassured her of the range they get. Now she's not convinced the bigger sedan can do it.

We are so familiar with Tesla's plans that we forget the perception-changing nature of what Tesla is doing...

 

[Doug_G]

Since I drive a 50 mile max EV I wouldn't know what to do with 100 miles of range :biggrin: I do think a reliable 100 mile range is necessary for greater general acceptance, 150 may be the sweet spot.

I respect pioneers like yourself, but could never accept for myself a car with less than ~200 mile nominal range. That's why I was so excited when I first heard of the Tesla Roadster.

 

[Norbert]

That is the sweet spot now for "mass market" pricing.

For the pricing of mass-market halo/demo/carb/enter-the-market cars. At (still somewhat above) "mass market" pricing, these cars don't make profit (yet). And that's one of the problems of how things currently play out.

 

[Norbert]

Well, the mark 1 RAV4 EV had a range of >100 miles and that is still the case with a '99 model I drove recently. That was with a 27 kWh pack.

I'm not sure about the RAV4 EV of that time, but the EV1 was *very* expensive in order to achieve weight etc.

A 2000 CARB report put NIMH costs at $350 / kWh or $250 in bulk plus $1200 ($600 bulk) fixed pack cost.

So back then a pack could have cost $7350 or 38% premium on an equivalent gas car.

From this quote:

Extensive efforts have been undertaken by the leading NiMH EV battery
developers to reduce battery cost, but high materials cost and limited production (in part
still manual) have kept current specific costs at around $1000 per kWh of battery
capacity. Materials cost projections, manufacturing process conceptualization, and
engineering cost estimation have been used by battery developers and some carmakers to
project future NiMH EV battery production costs for increasing levels of production.
From these projections, approximate module specific costs of >$300-350/kWh and
>$225-250/kWh can be estimated for battery production volumes of 10k-20k and 100k
packs per year, respectively. To these module costs, about $1200 and $600, respectively,
have to be added for the remaining components of a complete EV battery, including the
integrated electrical and thermal management systems, the battery tray if needed, and
other hardware.

It appears that "$350 / kWh or $250 in bulk plus $1200 ($600 bulk) fixed pack cost" have been *projected* costs for the future.

Actual costs were "$1000 per kWh".

Have we moved forward? The new RAV4 is reported to have a 37 kWh pack for similar range. Model S pack costs seem to be $500 / kWh. (Perhaps they should put the current car on a diet and wait 2 years for the NIMH patent.) That works out at 64% over the equivalent gas model.


Nevertheless in 1999 the price of gas was $1/gallon. Now it's what? $4? US inflation since 1999 was 35.8% but gas went up nearly ten times that...

So taking average mileage, in 1999 it would have taken 14.7 years' worth of gas to match the cost of the battery. That was too much to swallow. In 2011 dollars it would take 8 years' worth of gas to reach the premium for battery in the new model. If they were selling the old model today it would be 4 years.

It doesn't seem too much of a stretch to imagine that a finance model could be offered to flatten out the upfront cost. They could even take the ten year view and make a profit. Perhaps Toyota's accountants need to work on that. Renault's are.

If you take the Model S price difference for the 60 kWh pack, it is $500/kWh, but if you take the difference for the 85 kWh pack, it is $400/kWh. But those are car prices, and include pack cost (cooling etc), not component cost (battery cells only, as the $1000/kWh above, which is surely cost for the manufacturer).

So the Model S battery price is less than half, maybe 40% or even less, of those old prices.

 

[Lloyd]

Mention of the Rav4 EV at the detroit auto show. Lenz says that the range will now be "more than 100 miles" ! Link

 

[dpeilow]

It appears that "$350 / kWh or $250 in bulk plus $1200 ($600 bulk) fixed pack cost" have been *projected* costs for the future.

Actual costs were "$1000 per kWh".

$1000 for hand built packs but they could have gone into production for $350.

 

[Norbert]

$1000 for hand built packs but they could have gone into production for $350.

They were talking about projections including reducing materials costs, and for batteries with specific energies of 65 to 70Wh/kg, which they seemed to consider to be close to maxing out the potential for NiMH. So that would have been a dead end, even if a nice one. I haven't found any place where they say how long they thought it would take them to get from A to B, but it doesn't sound to me like they necessarily could have started production the next day, at those prices.

 

[Lloyd]

Toyota announces releasing the Rav4 EV in China. If this is with the Tesla Drive train as this article seems to suggest this is huge news!

 

[JRP3]

Actually that article referenced the original RAV4EV in China, not the new one, and it states that Toyota has not said what model would be introduced. I saw no reference to Tesla at all.

 

[smorgasbord]

Latest scuttlebutt on the Rav-4:

Tesla is building about ten Rav-4 powertrains a week, installing them in Rav-4 gliders and shipping them back to Japan for Toyota to test. The startup screen currently says something like "Powered by Tesla," but that probably won't make it to production.

There is at least one A-class Mercedes driving around Palo Alto that has a Tesla powertrain. You can't recognize it easily because it uses the gas cap cover for the charging port and it still has tailpipes.

 

[doug]

There is at least one A-class Mercedes driving around Palo Alto that has a Tesla powertrain. You can't recognize it easily because it uses the gas cap cover for the charging port and it still has tailpipes.

See/discuss that here: Tesla: Mercedes A-Class EV