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The number of Model Ses that have been produced but still have not been delivered yet

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Benz, Sep 15, 2013.

  1. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Tomorrow starts the second half of September 2013. The end of Q3 2013 is in sight.

    I was wondering how many Model Ses will there be (at the end of Q3 2013) that will have been produced, and still will not have been delivered to the customer yet. We can devide this into two groups:
    - The first group is the number of Model Ses that still have to be delivered to customers in the US.
    - And the second group is the number of Model Ses that still have to be delivered to customers in Europe.

    My guess is that the US part will be around 500 Model Ses, and the Europe part will be around 2,000 Model Ses.

    Can anyone make a more sharop and a better calculated guess?
    Share your thoughts on this.
     
  2. hoang51

    hoang51 Member

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    #2 hoang51, Sep 15, 2013
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2013
  3. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    I am aware of those. I am just asking people to post their thoughts on this topic.
     
  4. TSLAopt

    TSLAopt Active Member

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    where do you get your guesses from? If you can share with me that may help me refine my guess.

    my guess is 600 in the US and 1750 in Europe.
    My guess is based off of me estimating that they are producing about an average of 650 per week for the final 6 weeks of the quarter. i would estimate of that, 250 for Europe and 400 for US on average for each week (complete guess here).

    when they produce a US car I'm guessing it takes an average 1.5 weeks to be delivered (some people pick it up at the factory right away while others have to wait a couple weeks for it to be shipped across country and schedule their time to pick it up).

    when they produce a European car I'm guessing it takes 4-6 weeks to ship to Europe and then an additional 1-3 weeks to do that final assembly thing in Tillberg and deliver the car to the person in Europe wherever they may be.
     
  5. clmason

    clmason Member

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    #5 clmason, Sep 15, 2013
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2013
    Any word on whether they are pushing loaner S's for sale to finish the quarter with strong numbers?
     
  6. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    #6 sleepyhead, Sep 15, 2013
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2013
    My guess would be 0 for US and 1,000 for Europe:

    -Production for the final week in Q2 was 600, and now will finish at 650ish for Q3. If we use 400 for US and 250 for Europe, and assume that in the final week of Q2 400 was for US and 200 for Europe we get my 0 number for US carryovers (i.e. Q3 carryovers will offset Q2 carryovers). No matter how you look at it, the US carryovers are irrelevant, since they are offset by previous quarter carryovers.

    The only thing that matters is EU carryovers and this is how I get my number:

    Aug. 7 was first EU delivery and we know that the NUMMI plant was closed in first week of July; so the production to delivery delay (net of Q2 EU carryovers) is 4 weeks. 4 weeks of carryovers is 4x250=1,000

    Remember that Tesla can always skip a week or two of EU production, so that less cars are in transit at the end of Q3. It would be prudent to do this if Tesla knows that production will pick up in Q4.
     
  7. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    IMO this is exactly what TM will do. If you follow the thread about VIN numbers, finalization and delivery dates...I know Sleepy and Benz do....It appears that they have already started doing this.
    Makes perfect business sense.
     
  8. pGo

    pGo Member

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    Looking at following entry in the delivery thread suggests that there is almost no queue to get Model S in US. The owner says the car is being delivered tomorrow.

    VIN 20039 | 60 kWh | Blue with Gray Interior | Carbon Fiber Decor | Tech | Pano | 21" | Parking Sensors | Parcel Shelf | Finalized order on 8/9/13 | Delivery ? |



     
  9. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Maybe. But sometimes the cars are produced and the intended owner can not get financing or backs out for personal reasons. So, if you configure a car that matches an 'unclaimed' vehicle you can literally get it the next day or whatever time it takes to transport it to you.

    There are many people waiting still for a couple weeks...sure beats the three months for me or the 2-3 years for the early adopters though.
     
  10. LASpark

    LASpark Member

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    I believe Tesla is doing the smart thing and is trying to minimize the number of built cars that are in transit on 9/30/13. The practical result is, for the next two weeks, the closer you are to the factory the sooner you will get your car. My initial delivery date in October was pushed to 9/30.
     
  11. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    I am not so sure about that, but that could be indeed true.

    That would mean that the planning for the production of the last few weeks of Q3 would include only US deliveries. And that would mean that only US buyers would get their VIN assigned (concerning the planning for the production of the last few weeks of Q3).

    If that were to happen, then this would result in a period of a few weeks in Q4 when there would arrive no Model Ses in Europe. Would they want to do that? I doubt it. I think that they would prefer having a certain flow in the process of deliveries both in the US and in Europe as well. Even if that would mean that a number of Model Ses will be in transit. If they cannot be delivered in Q3, so be it.
     
  12. Al Sherman

    Al Sherman It's about THIS car.

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    I think yes, and mostly always. I have limited knowledge on the subject. However, I am currently driving a loaner that the SC told me they might need back early (before my car is ready) because they are trying to sell as many as they can before the quarter is over.
     
  13. DonPedro

    DonPedro Member

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    September registrations of Model S in Norway were 616. There were also deliveries to other EU countries. Add in some production rampup, and a monthly rate of 1,000 EU cars seems correct. There was no sign of slowed production in September as far as I could see.

    It seems to take 40-50 days to ship the cars, so up to 1,500 cars produced but not booked seems realistic to me.
     

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