The number of used Tesla 3/Y available is staggering

[sleepydoc]

waited 8 months for my model y , my neighbor got his in a week. wtf

I have a feeling that a fairly large percentage of orders on Tesla's books are from speculators who were looking to flip the cars on arrival. I know personally of a few people who bought spec cars, got the call for delivery much earlier than expected and cancelled their orders because there was no money to be made since the market has been dropping.

This.

 

[BMWY]

Prices are indeed falling and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future (IMO):

- Gas prices dropping back towards "normal"
- Rising borrowing costs (interest rates)
- Uncertainty in the stock market and economy overall (people generally aren't as keen to drop $$$ on cars when their investments are bleeding $$$).
- Prices reduction feedback loop. Those who wanted to "try out" EVs at little to no risk of losing money will be looking to sell if they're seeing prices drop, which will increase supply and further reduce prices. That's what happened to me, I traded in my MYP last month as I saw prices drop and availability rise.
- Giga Texas coming online, which will further increase availability. We're already seeing delivery lead time estimates dropping on new orders.
- I have a feeling that a fairly large percentage of orders on Tesla's books are from speculators who were looking to flip the cars on arrival. I know personally of a few people who bought spec cars, got the call for delivery much earlier than expected and cancelled their orders because there was no money to be made since the market has been dropping. A lot of dealers are also using acquaintances to order cars on their behalf for resale. There are hundreds of teslas with delivery mileage available for sale within a few hundred miles of me here in Canada. This problem will persist until all speculation orders are off the books in the next few months.

If you're thinking of getting out of your Tesla, do it now.

My only rebuttal to this is that ICE cars still seem to be thriving. 5-10k over sticker is not at all uncommon.

 

[terrain]

Prices are indeed falling and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future (IMO):

- Gas prices dropping back towards "normal"
- Rising borrowing costs (interest rates)
- Uncertainty in the stock market and economy overall (people generally aren't as keen to drop $$$ on cars when their investments are bleeding $$$).
- Prices reduction feedback loop. Those who wanted to "try out" EVs at little to no risk of losing money will be looking to sell if they're seeing prices drop, which will increase supply and further reduce prices. That's what happened to me, I traded in my MYP last month as I saw prices drop and availability rise.
- Giga Texas coming online, which will further increase availability. We're already seeing delivery lead time estimates dropping on new orders.
- I have a feeling that a fairly large percentage of orders on Tesla's books are from speculators who were looking to flip the cars on arrival. I know personally of a few people who bought spec cars, got the call for delivery much earlier than expected and cancelled their orders because there was no money to be made since the market has been dropping. A lot of dealers are also using acquaintances to order cars on their behalf for resale. There are hundreds of teslas with delivery mileage available for sale within a few hundred miles of me here in Canada. This problem will persist until all speculation orders are off the books in the next few months.

If you're thinking of getting out of your Tesla, do it now.

- Gas prices dropping back towards "normal" - Sure you were sarcastic here right. US Gas prices became insane within last week.

 

[240vPlug]

I don’t know if it’s a good idea to sell right now. I think the ship has sailed.

An offer of 59k for my 22 MYP with FSD and 9,000 mi is $18,000 less than my MSRP. I ordered in March. That offer is $27,000 less than current MSRP for same vehicle.

Granted private party should be much better. If you have the time and patience and you need to sell private party might be best.

I’m planning to keep mine for 3-5 years at minimum.

 

[CDNMYP]

My only rebuttal to this is that ICE cars still seem to be thriving. 5-10k over sticker is not at all uncommon.

In Canada at least, most "newish" used cars or new cars in stock are now at MSRP, but interest rates on car loans here are not like in the US, especially your credit union rates. Not much under 6-7%. And a lot of manufacturers raised MSRPs for 2022 and 2023. I was looking at BMW X5s for example, both dealers local to me have probably 20 new units in stock each at MSRP.

- Gas prices dropping back towards "normal" - Sure you were sarcastic here right. US Gas prices became insane within last week.

Again, speaking for Canada, in a lot of areas here, close to pre-pandemic levels. Notable exception of BC with gets supplies from west coast refineries, they're at $2.40 per litre right now in Vancouver. Insane.

 

[K1Woods]

I don’t know if it’s a good idea to sell right now. I think the ship has sailed.

An offer of 59k for my 22 MYP with FSD and 9,000 mi is $18,000 less than my MSRP. I ordered in March. That offer is $27,000 less than current MSRP for same vehicle.

Granted private party should be much better. If you have the time and patience and you need to sell private party might be best.

I’m planning to keep mine for 3-5 years at minimum.

my 2 cents, don't buy FSD on a new vehicle if only keeping a few years (less than 5). You get very little trade-in value for it. Private would be better.

 

[240vPlug]

my 2 cents, don't buy FSD on a new vehicle if only keeping a few years (less than 5). You get very little trade-in value for it. Private would be better.

You make a good point. I purchased because it I planned to keep 5 years (the break even point) and I had anticipated the cost of FSD increasing which it did.

I usually always sell my vehicles privately. I believe the FSD package will continue to increase in value as the feature set expands which I expect it to do significantly over the next 3-5 years.

If you regularly trade your vehicles and don’t plan to keep the vehicle for more than 6 years then just get the sub if you want FSD but know that the sub will probably increase in price as well. At the current sub price and 15k the break even is about 75 months.

 

[K1Woods]

You make a good point. I purchased because it I planned to keep 5 years (the break even point) and I had anticipated the cost of FSD increasing which it did.

I usually always sell my vehicles privately. I believe the FSD package will continue to increase in value as the feature set expands which I expect it to do significantly over the next 3-5 years.

If you regularly trade your vehicles and don’t plan to keep the vehicle for more than 6 years then just get the sub if you want FSD but know that the sub will probably increase in price as well. At the current sub price and 15k the break even is about 75 months.

Correct, the sub price may rise - hopefully not. Tesla seems to want to push people to the sub and they'll get more subscribers at a lower price point. It seems that they are at point where more users will make it better for everyone.

I wish the subscription could be paid yearly to make budgeting simpler.

Because I'm a sucker for new model features, I always tend to trade-in after a few years. Paying full freight for FSD and not receiving value becomes tiresome after a while.

 

[240vPlug]

Correct, the sub price may rise - hopefully not. Tesla seems to want to push people to the sub and they'll get more subscribers at a lower price point. It seems that they are at point where more users will make it better for everyone.

I wish the subscription could be paid yearly to make budgeting simpler.

Because I'm a sucker for new model features, I always tend to trade-in after a few years. Paying full freight for FSD and not receiving value becomes tiresome after a while.

Agree. At 15k my decision would have probably been to just go with the monthly sub. I like the yearly subs as well.

What you say makes sense on pushing everyone to monthly subs.

 

[Brolan]

Once FSD is "done" in Tesla's opinion the price of the monthly sub will double or more. Elon makes a big deal about saying how valuable it is. He is going to cash in. Don't make a financial decision based on the current monthly price.

 

[240vPlug]

Went to Tesla SC today which is also a delivery center as well. There were so many Tesla there was no place to park. When I took delivery back in June the place was nearly empty.

 

[BreatheEasier]

Bottom line there is no lack of demand for ICE or EVs at any price point. Used Tesla prices are down because the demand is staggeringly high for new ones, and deliveries continue at record pace vs. any EV competitor in the world. MSRPs are up, many dealers charge well over MSRP, and Tesla prices are up thousands. Zero change in demand. In fact, FOMO has driven demand higher, and Musk plays that well with his tweets about FSD pricing.

 

[jmcdono362]

It’s an interesting question. But the only difference with teslas are the used cars are selling for more than their msrp. As long as that holds, Teslas are in high demand.

Not just Tesla, look up a 2017 Chevy Bolt with 10K miles or less and the dealers are asking $28,000 for them. That's over $400 a month payment for a used car or I could lease a brand new Bolt for $200 a month and $2000 down. Buying used now is stupid and I'm someone who's own 8 cars my whole life and only one of them was a new car.

 

[jmcdono362]

i have a 2020 M3LR, white/white, 19" wheels, FSD with 31K miles. i originally was going to trade it for our MXLR order and tesla valued my car at $50,400. i also have a MYP on order which got my vin today and will trade my M3LR for instead. so i went to carmax this morning. their offer was $46K. not sure what if they are lowballing me since i know my car can go for at least $56K. the guy at carmax claims he noticed that the used market is stabilizing. but yet dealerships are still pounding that market adjustment cost on new cars.

also, they approved me for 4.49% for 6 years on my MYP lol. i'm probably gonna pay cash. that's horrendous rate and 6 years.

The low rates we had were ridiculously unrealistic and I'm surprised the fed didn't raise them years ago. The entire 1990's economic boom still had customers paying 6-7% average rates for car loans.

 

[jmcdono362]

There is a reason so many used Teslas are in Canada. People are flipping them. Only 2 provinces British Columbia and Quebec offer huge rebates. Many people are ordering and flipping them to auction when they come in. Dealers are then buying them since they can get Teslas easily. We have a local GM dealer that has over 20 Teslas with a handful of miles. He has more Teslas than GM cars. They are essentially new cars but can’t be sold as new because they have been titled. He is asking $10K over ordering from Tesla. Time is money and some people don’t want to wait. When Tesla production capacity meets demand this bubble will burst.

Exactly right. Want your car RIGHT NOW? Fork over that cash money ADM or wait 1 year for your factory ordered Tesla.

 

[jmcdono362]

History will continue to repeat itself - there is no reason it shouldn't. Lots of "shoulds" here, but... By mid 2023, the supply chain and semiconductor issues should stabilize and new car inventory levels should return. The used car market should crater by end of 2023 for all cars. Teslas will hold value relatively higher than an ICE, but my assumption that will only be true as long as EV competitors continue to lag behind Tesla with their ability to offer models/inventory. Once EV competitors to Tesla can deliver, we won't be having this conversation any longer, and Tesla will be just like any other car company competing on a more level playing field.

Bottom line - patience is a virtue here. I've been in the housing market for many years, which when you look over decades, the same behavior applies.

Totally agree. I'm hoping winter of 2024 will be a good time to buy a house. First house for me.

 

[jmcdono362]

Glad you had a good experience - so far. But your experience does not make it consistent across all customers in all countries. I saw a brand new MYP. Condensation in the tail lights. How many years has Tesla known about this design defect ? Paint jobs still suck with debris in paint. I have yet to see a white car where the paint matches on all panels. Or a black car without orange peel. Glass roof mounting is poor. Uneven gaps on either side. I could go on but you get the picture.

Quality should be consistent. Clearly it is not. Tesla has had over 10 years to figure out how to do quality. They don’t bother because they don’t have to. I don’t think they even have a QC department.

FSD is just a party novelty. The testers here will be testing for years. I guess it makes them feel important. Waymo and GM will have a solid offering while Testa is still beta. Or NHTSA will shut it down.

I am glad you have insider information relative to Cybertruck and Roadster. Why don’t you tell us when they are coming.

Service at Tesla is an afterthought. There are only 19 Service Centers in all of Canada. Do you know how big Canada is ?

Tesla has grown to be a large company with lots of money. Why they can’t hire the right people to solve these issues is incomprehensible. I am glad you think they will be fine. For the moment that may be true. But the world is not standing still.

I just watched Kyle Connor from Out of Spec pick up his brand new Model S Plaid. Right off the bat in the video:
- Rubber window moldings coming loose. That problem has existed since day one of the S, including my 2015.
- Glove box closes with a loud CLING from some internal spring. It was so loud that everyone in the car burst out laughing.
- HUGE panel gaps between the hood and the fender panels that sit over the front wheels. You could probably stick your whole pinky finger in.

Keep in mind Kyle doesn't complain in the video and actually accepts this is typical of his prior Tesla's as well and knew to expect it. But when your paying over $130,000.......

 

[240vPlug]

Bottom line there is no lack of demand for ICE or EVs at any price point. Used Tesla prices are down because the demand is staggeringly high for new ones, and deliveries continue at record pace vs. any EV competitor in the world. MSRPs are up, many dealers charge well over MSRP, and Tesla prices are up thousands. Zero change in demand. In fact, FOMO has driven demand higher, and Musk plays that well with his tweets about FSD pricing.

This may have been the case a couple months ago but demand has softened significantly since then. Used prices are coming down and a LR Y can be had as soon as December (45-60 days). At one point the wait was 12 months or more for the same vehicle. A performance Model 2-4 weeks. MSRP are up for new vehicles for sure but there has certainly been a change in demand. The FOMO happened back in the March to July timeframe.

Is everyone waiting for the tax credit or have they decided the numbers just aren't working out given the sharp rise in interest rates? We will know early next year I suppose.

As far a new vehicles:

174 model 3 in new inventory at the time of this writing and 25 model Y. That is Tesla inventory. Seems to be a LOT of M3 out there...anyone on the fence for a 3 might be able to get a good deal here soon.

 

[BMWY]

One thing I think people are missing is that starting in 2023, the $4000 credit will be in play for used EVs. It would not shock me one bit if we see a huge surge in used demand once the calendar flips.

 

[sleepydoc]

One thing I think people are missing is that starting in 2023, the $4000 credit will be in play for used EVs. It would not shock me one bit if we see a huge surge in used demand once the calendar flips.

I think there are more limitations on that, though, like requiring the car to be made in the U.S.? That will obviously help Tesla but leaves other EVs out. the id.4 is assembled in TN but the Ioniq is made in Korea, the Mach E in Mexico and China.