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The Oil Companies?????

Discussion in 'News' started by Jackl1956, Feb 1, 2014.

  1. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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  2. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    Peak Oil is here...
     
  3. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

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    I don't know, seems pretty cogent, considerate and meaningful of a response to me. All a matter of perspective. :biggrin:
     
  4. Vger

    Vger Active Member

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    Nice tie in with the cross-country trip. Nice to see Forbes at least express openness to a change in the wind.

    As Doug_G say, peak oil is here, it has just been obscured by all the clouds of burning NG and money rising from the Bakken. All the studies I have seen show that the next spikes in oil prices could dwarf the run to $140 we saw a few years ago. There will be swings, but the peaks and the valleys will rise.

    Sadly, this economic shift will not happen fast enough to save us from severe consequences to climate change. Those economic costs are going to mushroom in our lifetime, I fear.
     
  5. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    Years ago, I repaired IBM mainframe computers for living. Working on PCs was beneath us. Those in the IBM world saw personal computers as kids-stuff. The transformation seemed as though it occurred overnight.

    In three years, with the release of the Model E, the rate of change will be astonishing.
     
  6. dhrivnak

    dhrivnak Active Member

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    How very true. I used to work for Kodak and digital cameras were always 10 years out, and not much to worry about; then BAM.
     
  7. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    And that goes to show just how hard it is to turn the ship in a big company. In large measure Kodak invented digital imaging. Then others went on to eat their lunch with it.

    The big worry is that electric vehicles will not proliferate fast enough to save the economy. As the supply of oil gets constrained, we'll get wild swings in the price, even as it moves inexorably upwards. Each swing upwards will trigger a recession resulting in a price crash. That's how supply constrained systems behave, but this will have huge consequences.

    If we can eliminate even a modest percentage of demand with EVs it will forestall the economic mess, and hopefully eventually prevent it. All the while helping the environment. This HAS to happen!
     
  8. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    What is brutal here is nothing will prevent this based on currently available technology EXCEPT for electric vehicles.

    Gas/Diesel - Oil based... clearly getting harder to obtain
    Natural Gas - Also getting harder to obtain
    Hydrogen - Primarily produced by Natural Gas... See above. Current fuel cost for Hydrogen is about 2x as much as Gas, if they switched off of obtaining it through Natural Gas to something else (like water), it is only going to be more expensive

    Are there any other types out there, concept or otherwise???

    I have sent out a pleading message to my facebook friends to strongly consider your future here as the opportunity arises. The big things are going to be, selling off your ICE vehicles. As EV's increase in demand and ICE stops becoming the defacto choice the resale price is going to tank because noone will WANT them. Nevermind the cost of Gas going up... Unfortunately for most of my friends, they won't even be able to afford a 35k EV (I grew up in a rather low income area and family). Their best bet is going to be picking up the first used Gen3's that hit the market or longer. These are the kind of people that buy their cars at 5k or less. I feel really bad for them, for the near future, because this is going to kill the bottom end working class, which is going to kill the economy...
     
  9. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    During the 80s, the governments were not first adopters of PCs. However, when they replaced mainframes with PCs in mass, it was the death knell for the mainframe industry. When the federal, state and county governments begin adopting EVs in mass, the tipping point will have arrived.
     
  10. evme

    evme Member

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    Didn't they try to a few years ago when the USPS had a surplus and tried to replace all their gasoline vans with electric ones? Then with the help of lobbies, congress forced the USPS to fund it's retirement for over 7 decades in advanced. Forcing the USPS to not only scrap that, but also to be in the horrible financial state they are today. Because every new year they automatically end up in billions of debt funding the retirement of people who are not even born yet.
     
  11. djplong

    djplong Member

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    I used to work for the #2 computer manufacterurer in the world in 1980 - Digital Equipment Corporation, second only to IBM. They *invented* the minicomputer and were well on their way to bringing computers to the masses. The irony I'm setting up is the fact that this company sold the first sub-one-million-dollar computer, for $125,000. But as computers got smaller and more powerful, an interviewer once asked the CEO, Ken Olsen, about computers making their way into the home and Ken said "Why would anyone want one in their home?"

    He was stuck on the idea that you would have a terminal at home that would communicate with a remote server for all your "home computing needs".

    We all know what came next. The "cherry on the whipped cream" of irony is that most of you out there are on Windows PCs. Every Windows version since XP (and on through Vista, 7 and 8) can trace it's "guts" back to Windows NT. Windows NT's product team was headed up by a guy named Dave Cutler. Microsoft recruited him as he'd been part of the lead team developing a great 32-bit multitasking OS (and bulletproof enough to get certified by the US government) called VMS. VMS was from Digital Equipment Corporation. And when Ken Olsen nixed the idea of making a desktop version of the hardware and software of VMS, Dave Cutler went to Microsoft to work on the new WIndows NT project.

    Ken, as brilliant as he was, didn't see it coming - and the irony was that HE had set it in motion - just like Kodak did with digital cameras.

    The odd part of the story, that nobody has been able to confirm whether or not it was on purpose, is that when you bump the letters "VMS" by one, you get "WNT" - one of Windows NT's abbreviations (like the old "HAL" -> "IBM" story)

    So now we have Tesla that has Lotus in it's history (the Roadster), with an unrelated branch showing how NOT to do things (Fisker), and a bunch of people who don't know why you'd want an electric car because they're stuck in old-school ("ugly golf cart") thinking. But some of those engineers who came from legacy manufacturers are going to be the Dave Cutlers of Tesla.

    If we can solve the "no place to plug in if I live in an apartment building" problem, there's simply no obstacles left. All the others have been solved or are in the process of being solved.
     
  12. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power is in the process of expanding their EV fleet. As automobiles are replaced they are purchasing Chevy Volts. In many respects the LADWP is first adopter in terms of government agencies. While supervisors drive sedans their "electrical mechanics" drive a variety of trucks. I guess that they roll hundreds of pick-up trucks every business day. Very few of these trucks would ever exceed 50 miles of driving on a given day.

    Imagine a municipal utility with hundreds of electric pick-up truck "service vehicles". How much would the city of Los Angeles save in gasoline each day? Just thinking out loud.
     
  13. David99

    David99 Active Member

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    Oil companies have been the absolute most creative coming up with explanations why oil prices are going up. The number of stories I heard over my life from them is almost endless and hilarious. Well it would be funny if it wasn't so serious since we had to pay for it. Oil companies are generating profits and numbers that make almost any other industry look like peanuts. To me this article falls into the 'cry me a river' category. It's exactly why I can't wait to get into my Tesla and once for all say good bye to petrol. I'm tired of their made up stories why oil prices have to go up.
    I see the Model S as big of a breakthrough in car history as the Ford Model T. This is the beginning of a massive switch to EVs and it's coming fast. The demand for gasoline will go back just as fast. Lower demand on an established product has always resulted in a reduction of price for it. So if anything I see gas prices go down.
    I'm also not too worried about the prices of electricity going up too much. Even today in most places it is cost effective to produce your own electricity at current prices. Should the price for electricity go up, it would become even more cost effective to put solar panels on your roof.
     
  14. MikeL

    MikeL some guy

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    OH the IRONY

    image.jpg
    Yes, it's their actual logo. As I was purchasing G*S this morning, the sign on the pump just seemed to say it all without saying anything. Enjoy!
     
  15. John Luciano

    John Luciano Member

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    #15 John Luciano, Feb 7, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2014
    Would it be great to have the oil companies beg us to buy their gas for 30 cents a gallon again. If we get enough alternate powered cars on the road it might just happen . Not in my lifetime but soon. If other companies follow Tesla lead and night fight it. We can make our own electricity. 3 different ways, we can't make our own Gas.
     
  16. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Active Member

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    If you want to see what the near future holds, just take a look at Germany. The gov't is offering $.16/W for solar power owners push onto the grid and utility companies are charging $.27/W from the grid. Not to hard to tell that setting up a battery system is worthwhile there.

    Ironically, some of that $.27 is to pay for the renewable subsidy, but you get my drift. It's gonna cause absolute chaos. German wholesale electricity costs at mid-day on the weekend are practically zero in the summer because of the excess solar supply.

    Once the Model E hits, a good chunk of people will already have gone solar in the US while still being tied to the grid. The next logical step will be to unhook and that demand will generate the innovation needed for economical storage technology to arise. Then we're mostly done.
     
  17. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    It doesn't make sense to totally unhook, because there might be a time when you overuse more power than your battery can sustain. Or if something happens to your setup and you need power. The grid is a good idea overall.
     
  18. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    Exactly. The problem is that retail tariffs are set up to pay for the grid connection using a kWh charge, which makes grid power look far more expensive than it really is. The tariff should be set up to be something like $2/kW of connection service (so a 240 V, 200 A panel would pay about $100/month) as a flat charge, then tack on the actual wholesale price of power plus a small markup for losses, administration, etc.

    In California, for example, the wholesale price of power is only about $0.04/kWh, even though the retail rate is over five times higher:
    CAISO 2012 Annual Report on Market Issues & Performance
    So when people tell me that solar is cost-competitive with utility power, I always ask which measure they're using: retail or wholesale. The retail price doesn't reflect the real cost that they need to beat unless you are really willing to go off-grid.
     
  19. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    We already can. Every parking space could have a charger. There just isn't yet enough market momentum to make it happen. It's another reason why we need Gen 3 to hit target. When HOAs, condo management and landlords say no to people with money they lose money.
     
  20. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    There are a lot of people living in cities who, each evening, roam their neighborhood to find a street parking spot. That's certainly true in Boston and New York City. Unless there is effectively 100% coverage of such spots, with the equivalent of parking meters, there's going to be an important gap in the EV market.
     

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