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The Optimal vs Less than Optimal Time to Buy a Tesla

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by DHG., Jul 29, 2017.

  1. DHG.

    DHG. Member

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    What is the Optimal vs Less than Optimal time to buy?

    I see a lot of the forums threads get clogged with this discussion about people who get caught up in the ever changing quarterly cycle and I wanted make a place toshare these thoughts along with my own experience.

    My observation:
    A pattern has emerged in 2017 from what I can see, an early quarter change followed by a mid quarter change to push sales.

    My experience:
    I can only relate to my experience and the stories I've seen on this forum and I've been on both sides of the coin, the optimal and less than optimal time to buy.

    I bought my Model S P100D late Dec 2016 build at an optimal time. I got leather, ventilated seats, plus everything that is available today at thousands less.

    I bought my wife's Model X100D at a less than optimal time. Early April 2017 build. Doesn't have dual chargers or performance upgrade that the cars have in early Q3. Worse yet I took delivery at end of Q2 making it closer to the performance changes.


    My Thoughts:
    From my perspective is there is two ways to think about it.

    1. I got ventilated seats and saved like $10k, Ive got 22" silver turbines, tan leather and those aren't available. Basically appreciate what you've got that those who are buying now don't have.

    And/Or

    2. Your vegan or non vegan X 75D is faster then my non vegan X100D and if I would have only waited 3 weeks I could have had a faster car. If I would have waited 4 weeks I could have had cream interior with sub zero included in the premium package and dual chargers. Have regrets about the time of purchase.

    Bought my Model S P100D at an optimal time (dare I say perfect time), bought my Model X 100D at a less optimal time.

    But I really feel lucky to own 2 Teslas. We enjoy both and they are both phenomenal cars.

    I see P85+ cars and those are awesome, I see P85s those are awesome, I see P85Ds those are awesome, Model S 85s are awesome, I see X60Ds those are cool! I have an appreciation for software locked 60Ds those are cool cars.

    To the community:
    New buyers and seasoned owners look to this forum for answers, see an optimal time voice it here. See a less than optimal time, might be worth noting here.
     
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  2. DHG.

    DHG. Member

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    Right now would be an optimal time IMO. Prices have dropped. The 75D might have a software locked 85 battery, (that's a guess based on some blogs I've seen). Performance improvements differentiate the it from the Model 3. $7500k is available in tax credits still.

    Design of Model S might change but it looks so damn good now, is newer necessarily better?

    I'd say now is a good time to pull the trigger IMO
     
  3. boaterva

    boaterva Supporting Member

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    I'm waiting also. I was waiting for whatever cool improvement was supposed to be announced on the 3 last night and then rolled out to the S and X since the 3 can't have anything better. Looks like there isn't anything we're aware of. So, hmmmm. (Unless a keycard counts...)
     
  4. idleuser

    idleuser Member

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    Optimal - Beginning Q3 leading up to Q4, that way you can time your federal tax credit, take advantage of free for life supercharging and maybe a few minor updates.

    Less Optimal - Q1 through Q2 2018 - Loss of free supercharging and changes to possible battery upgrades for the Model S due to Model 3's insane range of 300+ miles and that's before the Performance and AWD version of the Model 3 series. Tesla is going to have to step up their game for the Model S next year due to Model 3's changes.
     
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  5. boaterva

    boaterva Supporting Member

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    Assuming there isn't some other referral/Supercharging fiasco addon... look how many things changed in three months this year! Insane...
     
  6. idleuser

    idleuser Member

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    I think the referral will exist for at least another year but I think Tesla maybe for reals this time regarding free for life supercharging. With the demand and growth of the Model 3, it won't be sustainable to offer free for life supercharging. Plus Tesla's has already put in place of offering 400kw of charging a year so I think that will be the model going forward in 2018.
     
  7. STILLWISHIN'

    STILLWISHIN' Member

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    I believe free supercharging will always be offered to a purchase of a new model S or X. CPO or model 3 will have the 400kw plan. This will keep the demand lever for purchasing a new vs. CPO.
     
  8. Buster1

    Buster1 Member

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    I've been really watching this too...the timing.

    We're pulling the trigger mid-Oct on an S75D (that's the plan as of today):rolleyes:. It seems to me that you are right @DHG. and that changes come in after the quarter.

    This quarter is 'bout half over, and with the M3 release...I think things will be turbulent for the remainder thru Sept. I also expect some changes early Oct, and that is when I'll strike!

    The other consideration seems to be data points on cars built late in a quarter having poor quality and problems. Not a lot of data points on that, but I believe there is a trend. That makes me also want to order early in a quarter so my car finishes producuction mid-quarter, or at the worst...early in the last month of a quarter.

    BL: Buster thinks you should order a car (new) from Tesla on the 2nd or 3rd week of Jan, Apr, Jul, and Oct. This maximizes getting the new goodies and minimizes end-of-qtr build quality issues.

    YMMV, and I'm sure once a Elon reads this he'll change The Matrix again. :confused:
     
  9. JohnnyG

    JohnnyG Weee!

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    The optimal time for me is when @DHG. upgrades his MS and then I'll buy it as a CPO. :D It has everything I was wanting on my '15 P90DL when I purchased it, but wasn't available at that time (including a car that matches it's performance advertisements, and a battery capacity that matches it's label). ;) Even if they redesign the MS, I won't be able to justify another brand new MS purchase, and a December 2016 MS P100D (with all the options) gets me exactly what I wanted.

    As far as brand new goes, it sure seems like most significant changes have been occurring between mid-Spring to early-Fall.
     
  10. smilepak

    smilepak Active Member

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    The Tesla is not a car. It is. Piece of technology first, then it is a car. At the rate of change, its never optimal time to buy because by the time you decide to buy, less than 12 months later Tesla will change configuration

    You are screwed either way, buy when you want or need.

    The minute the discontinued the 60 model and decide 70 was the minimum, I bought mine. Less than 12 months later, the evidence to make 75 and bring back 60. lol sucks
     
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  11. P100D_OSLO

    P100D_OSLO Member

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    Amen to this! I have been mulling over my first Tesla purchase for a year now.. I finally pulled the trigger in Mid-July and bought a S75D (live in Norway, so here we only do 4WD), and then with delivery 3 weeks away, Tesla dropped the P100D prices and I got my hands on an Inventory car (demo car) that has been driven 5,000 miles for $128,000 fully loaded (only thing it doesn't have is pano, mine has glass roof). At that price, I just could not pass it up! I then of course got to thinking.. why are they selling out all the P100Ds, is something newer and better just around the corner?! o_O And the dance continues......... but either way, looking forward to owning the worlds fastest car in 3 weeks time, so I have concluded there really is no bad time to buy...:D
     
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  12. SucreTease

    SucreTease Member

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    Ooookay. Since a quarter is three months long, two changes per quarter means every 1.5 months. So, basically you're saying to expect a change every 6 weeks, on average.
     
  13. owen.shift

    owen.shift Member

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    This.

    For everyone else: The perfect time to buy a Tesla is during the end-of-quarter sales push in September. It started on August 25th, when the prices on all inventory S 100D in Europe were dropped by €12k (~$14k).

    Tesla Inventory Search

    Go.
     
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  14. DHG.

    DHG. Member

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    Well the recent price drop of the 100Kw would make this the third change this quarter

    1st - performance bump July 1st
    2nd - all vegan interiors July 15th
    3rd - 100D and P100D price drop Aug 29th

    Im not trying to generalize or identify a pattern but just making observations. Q4 might be best time to buy. Or now if you want the discount. It's looking like Q3 of 2016 with the P90D discounts. With inventory discounts we might be seeing something big. Might. Total speculation.
     
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  15. DHG.

    DHG. Member

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    If you are on the fence and waiting to order your new Tesla wait. That’s my humble suggestion. Order 10-13 days after the start of Q4. If I’m right (which there is no telling but I am seeing a pattern) you will be within your 7 day period to cancel and reorder the next tweak.

    Q1
    - Jan 1-15th - free supercharging extended
    - Jan 16th - 100D

    Q2
    - April 1-15 price hike
    - April 16th free dual chargers and some other tweaks

    Q3
    - July 1st -15th performance boost
    - July 16th - new interior colors and materials
     
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  16. Nda721

    Nda721 Member

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    Three day
     
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  17. DHG.

    DHG. Member

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    Wow I see that now. Good catch! Okay so amend my statement that makes things a bit harder so maybe the 13th or 14th. Or just wait toward 3rd week of October (based on the observed pattern).
     
  18. bhzmark

    bhzmark Supporting Member

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    If concerned about price, the best time is when you find an inventory car that has what you want at a decent discount.

    exactly

    If concerned about latest tech, wait until an announcement of something. With 2.5 recently announced, there probably won't be anything for a while.

    Unfortunately this site hasn't been updated in a while but the changes are fast and furious:

    Model S - Options by Year - Tesla Motors Club Wiki
     
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  19. DHG.

    DHG. Member

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  20. Shaggy

    Shaggy Member

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    Well the end of this month, October 2017, ends the $1000 off on the referral... IM me, if you need one. ;-)
     
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