The Problem with "Rare" cars

[Buddyroe]

I see so many people saying their car is rare or a unicorn. For example, many people think they should get more money for their car because it is a green P85+ car with AP1. Problem is, there is a reason it is is rare. It means that very few people wanted a green car when the P85+ cars with AP1 were being sold. If people weren't clamoring to order a green car then, they probably aren't going to be clamoring to get a green car now. Secondly, Tesla cancelled the green color. Obviously, companies don't stop production of something that is hugely popular. Now, in the case of the Signature colors, Tesla did not cancel them, they were simply designated as Signature car colors (and used to entice people to buy those signature cars and wouldn't be right to then make available to non-sig cars).

So, while rare can often mean a high or higher value (think of a rare coin), it doesn't always guarantee it. If the reason the particular item is rare is because no one wanted it to begin with, its rarity is not going to add value, and in fact, may actually hurt it (well, the reason that it wasn't desirable in the first place might hurt it).

 

[jelloslug]

OK

 

[HankLloydRight]

e. It means that very few people wanted a green car when the P85+ cars with AP1

There a big difference between features that were discontinued (like the green paint) due to low demand. But a real unicorn is the confluence of two or more line changes that popped out a few unique configurations that were very short lived, like the RWD P85+ cars with AP1. Those actually are extremely rare and sought after. The P85+ with the + suspension is an amazing car on its own. But a few (some say about 300) were produced with AP1 before Tesla dropped the P85+ and replaced it with the P85D. Some people prefer RWD cars, and to have the awesome P85+ WITH autopilot? In my mind, that is worthy of being called a "Unicorn".

Another example is the P85D with the + suspension from the P85+ which wasn't ever a feature offered by Tesla.. it was just Tesla pumping out that last few months of + suspension parts on P85Ds. These are also rare, but I wouldn't call these unicorns because there are thousands of examples. There's on for sale right now as a CPO. I, for one, would definitely pay a premium for the + suspension over a regular P85D.

These examples aren't rare because nobody wanted them (low demand), as you assert, they're rare because they offer a unique combination of features which were hard to get (low supply).

 

[Buddyroe]

These examples aren't rare because nobody wanted them (low demand), as you assert, they're rare because they offer a unique combination of features which were hard to get (low supply).

I agree with what you said, but I think you have taken the inverse of what I meant. I guess what I was trying to get across is that an undesired, discontinued color (or any other option) cannot, and should not be be a factor in it being a unicorn. All of the factors you mentioned obviously would (because they were greatly desired options), but nothing that was discontinued out of lack of demand should be. So if a car is green (for example), but is a P85+ car with AP1, then it would be a rare car - but it is rare in ANY color - it being green would add nothing to the cars value, and may in fact take away from it.

Which of these 3 are worth more (with everything else being equal)?

Red P85+ car with AP1
Black P85+ car with AP1
Dark Green P85+ car with AP1

Obviously the dark green is the rarest of those 3, but is it worth more? Without a doubt - no.

EDIT TO ADD: I just want to make it clear that I wasn't saying ALL rare features were due to the feature being undesirable, but instead, IF a feature was rare due to it being undesirable, then that feature will add no value to the car (when being re-sold).

 

[morrisdl]

Agreed! Value is only increased by demand (of 2 or more people). Value is not increased by limited supply.

If two or more people really want GREEN and there is only one, then the price will go up accordingly even if it was a less popular color (at the time of manufacturing).

 

[HankLloydRight]

Green is a rare color, regardless of how it became rare.

But you can't speak for everyone like that.

It's a free and open market, so if a seller of a green car thinks his car has a premium value, he's free to advertise it as such in search of a buyer that puts a premium on that color.

So yes, I would say that green cars can have a higher value FOR THE RIGHT BUYER-- just because it's rare. The problem is, in case of the green color, both supply and demand are low so it's hard to find or reach a price equilibrium in those cases.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Value is not increased by limited supply.

What? Of course it is.

Scarcity heuristic - Wikipedia

 

[Buddyroe]

Well, theories abound, but real life is normally a better indicator. If you follow the CPO cars closely, you will see that the green cars are the most discounted cars of all (I use teslainventory.com to easily see this). So obviously, supply of green cars still outnumber demand.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Well, theories abound, but real life is normally a better indicator. If you follow the CPO cars closely, you will see that the green cars are the most discounted cars of all (I use teslainventory.com to easily see this). So obviously, supply of green cars still outnumber demand.

You'd really have to do a regression analysis to see what the biggest contributing factor is in discounting.. there are lots of different factors at play -- features, options, color, mileage, age, etc. Without actually doing that kind of detailed statistical analysis, you really can't make the statement that green cars are the most discounted.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Well, theories abound, but real life is normally a better indicator.

Do you know what Bitcoin is?

How about Tulip mania in Holland? Tulip mania - Wikipedia

There are endless REAL LIFE examples of this.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I think this is a contradiction...

You said:

Value is not increased by >>> limited supply. <<<

But... then

If two or more people really want GREEN

i.e. Increased Demand

and there is only one,

-->> LIMITED SUPPLY <<--

then the price will go up accordingly

If there were two or more green cars (not limited supply), the price would not go up. The buyers could negotiate on other factors. The entire real estate market is based on "comps" which tries to convince buyers or sellers that there is (or maybe isn't) limited supply driving up (or down) home prices/values.

Value(price) is a factor of both demand and supply. If I have one widget that nobody wants, it doesn't matter what price I put on it. Conversely, if everyone wants a widget but none exist, it doesn't matter what price people will pay.

 

[bonnie]

@Buddyroe - are you trying to buy a green car & they're asking a premium for the paint color? (Trying to figure out what motivated this thread in the 'Tesla For Sale' part of the forum...)

 

[b team]

To be desirable, features also need to be congruent. Green is a great color for a non-performance S. For a P with + suspension, it's a little strange. The market value for the car should be the value of a black or gray or red vehicle minus the cost to wrap it so that it is no longer fugly.

 

[Will Travel]

Buddyroe, you wrote..`

For example, many people think they should get more money for their car because it is a green P85+ car with AP1

Many people? Only two are known to exist and I haven't seen either for sale.

 

[Galve2000]

Do you know what Bitcoin is?

How about Tulip mania in Holland? Tulip mania - Wikipedia

I've been saying this all month ... caviat emptor with the bitcoins people.

 

[Will Travel]

To be desirable, features also need to be congruent. Green is a great color for a non-performance S. For a P with + suspension, it's a little strange. The market value for the car should be the value of a black or gray or red vehicle minus the cost to wrap it so that it is no longer fugly.

Ever hear of British Racing Green?

 

[JCLeonard]

@Buddyroe - are you trying to buy a green car & they're asking a premium for the paint color? (Trying to figure out what motivated this thread in the 'Tesla For Sale' part of the forum...)

It's likely just a rant/observation of for sale ads that label something a unicorn in hopes of justifying a "premium" price. All good points in this thread that all boil down to a lesson I learned from my father, a real estate agent, many years ago: something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. If you believe you have a unicorn, then you are willing to search for the unicorn buyer that agrees with you.

 

[ACA Man]

It's likely just a rant/observation of for sale ads that label something a unicorn in hopes of justifying a "premium" price. All good points in this thread that all boil down to a lesson I learned from my father, a real estate agent, many years ago: something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. If you believe you have a unicorn, then you are willing to search for the unicorn buyer that agrees with you.

Ditto.

 

[gabeincal]

Could a color be cancelled because it is not economical to manufacture instead of lack of demand? There are some assumptions in your thread that you make to get your point across, but I don't really see that very point. If i think my car is special because it is rare, than that's my opinion. If you give me more money for it, then you shared my opinion. It's a buyer-seller relationship and you can't 'govern' that with your opinion.

 

[HankLloydRight]

To be desirable, features also need to be congruent. Green is a great color for a non-performance S. For a P with + suspension, it's a little strange. The market value for the car should be the value of a black or gray or red vehicle minus the cost to wrap it so that it is no longer fugly.

Wow. This is the most subjective comment I've seen in a long time.

There's no such thing as a "performance" color. It's 100% personal preference.

There are endless examples of what I call fugly Lambos and Ferraris. That doesn't change the performance of the car.

Did you also put a big wing on the back of your car, because you know, all real performance cars need big wing stabilizers to make the car go faster.