good question
And why isn't GM building a competitor to Model S? Cadillac could have used the sales, no? BEV or PHEV??
And why isn't GM making a Model X killer? BEV or Hybrid without Falcon Wing Doors?
And why isn't GM making a battery factory?
AND what about Ford? Same questions.
AND why hasn't GM nor FORD bought SANDY MUNRO's Model 3 report while many other OEMs (even FIAT) have.
You can buy it for $167,000 for all 3 parts of Munro's Model 3 report.
And which companies use cells vs pouches?? Only Tesla and Rivian? Is that correct??
And genius investors worry about Elon tweets - just ask the SEC which fined Elon/Tesla $40,000,000.
The key problem for GM and a most of the rest of the industry is that they are not securing enough batteries. The US Big 3 automakers are not all that interested in making cars anymore. They are now small truck makers who also offer some cars.
The Big 3 are facing a Catch 22 with EVs. They don't have access to enough batteries to mass produce any EV right now and they are afraid of two things that could happen if they tried to mass produce EVs: 1) It would kill their ICE sales before they had enough batteries to replace ICE production, or 2) They go all in on current li-ion tech and there is a major breakthrough tomorrow that leaves them with older, unwanted, more expansive tech when competitors who held out for the new battery tech are raking in sales.
The EV market has two key limiters, one is a hard limit and the other is soft. The first limit is battery supply. Even Tesla is now facing scaling difficulties as mentioned up thread. Battery supply is expanding world-wide, but it's still only a tiny fraction of what's needed to convert EV production over.
The other, softer limit is consumer demand. Tesla is doing well, but other EVs sit on dealer's lots. In part because dealers don't know how and don't want to sell them. But the mainstream hasn't really flipped on EV demand yet. In places like California few people don't know about Tesla and what they're about, but get to Kansas and you'll find a lot of people scratching their heads and asking where the engine is. Get to the upper Midwest and you'll find hostility towards EVs because they're threatening their hometown industry.
Cites, please. I know plenty of oil folks. None of them are fans of selling gasoline - they'd all much rather sell NG - which is how most most EVs are powered...
I literally have friends and family in or retired from the oil business. The oil companies are a lot less worried about EVs coming. As you point out, they can still sell natural gas and at least in North America we're nowhere near running out. I think they would prefer to sell oil though, it has more profit potential, but they also realize that the cheap to produce and refine oil is running out. The stuff that's left is heavier, requiring more refining, and/or very expensive to produce.
In North America we produce oil from existing fields with secondary recovery methods (which costs more per barrel), produce it from ever deeper waters offshore (which costs a lot to drill), or is produced from oil shale or tar sands (both require extra energy and effort to bring to market). Venezuela has a lot of oil, but it's heavy stuff that requires more refining. The Saudi light, sweet crude is running out, though the Saudis deny it.
The oil companies are largely run by the same short term thinkers plaguing most American corporations. As long as they see a path that keeps them in bonuses until they retire, they don't really care what happens next.
If EV demand went way up and ICE sales dropped, the oil companies know that the average age of cars in the US is 12 years. Even if battery production could meet demand, which it couldn't in that scenario today, it would be at least a decade until 1/2 the ICE were off the streets, and more realistically 2 decades. And that's just half the fleet.
In the medium term a shrinking oil market is fine for oil companies. They can quit exploration and developing new fields, which is their biggest expense by a huge margin and can just sell what they have. Because their biggest expense is gone, they rake in massive profits over pumping what's there. They know this is not a long term strategy, but it lasts until their retirement and that's all that concerns the corporate bosses.
The car companies are much more concerned about the rise of EVs. They could be facing extinction within 5-10 years if demand flips and ICE sales crash before they can get enough batteries. Because their culture farms out so much it doesn't occur to most car company execs to do what Tesla is doing securing their own supply of batteries. They are depending on just buying from someone else. That's going to prove a mistake when the crunch comes. Especially if battery makers decide to make EVs too, which is a high probability with LG.
