The Race to 200K

[wdolson]

There has been a lot of discussion about when Tesla would hit 200K US sales and in general where the other car companies are in the mix. I took the data from Inside EVs and massaged it into a company total list.

These are the totals as of the end of last month. Tesla and GM are both within about 30K.

 

[ggr]

Tesla and GM are both within about 30K.

Yeah, but Tesla's run rate is increasing, while I believe GM's is decreasing.

 

[wdolson]

Tesla probably will be the first to hit 200K.

I see you're a Pratchett fan. I discovered him back in the early 90s, he was taken from us way too soon.

 

[Electroman]

There has been a lot of discussion about when Tesla would hit 200K US sales and in general where the other car companies are in the mix. I took the data from Inside EVs and massaged it into a company total list.

View attachment 288762
These are the totals as of the end of last month. Tesla and GM are both within about 30K.

Those are very insightful numbers.

It appears that except Tesla and Nissan, others wasted their Plug in credits on Hybrids.

 

[robby]

I wonder if Tesla could pull a Google/Alphabet and reset the counter.

 

[wdolson]

Here are the numbers at the end of March

Tesla has sold 17,980 cars in the US so far this year. If they push cars outside the US this quarter and bring in the same numbers for Q2, they might hit the number early July.

 

[Kuhz]

I hope from now on it’ll be a crawl instead of a race to July 1st. After that release the flood gates....

 

[Canuck]

This has to be why they invited us in Canada earlier than "late 2018" which was our original date. I still can't believe I'll be getting my 3 in 4 to 8 weeks.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here are the numbers at the end of March

View attachment 292776
Tesla has sold 17,980 cars in the US so far this year.
If they push cars outside the US this quarter and bring in the same numbers for Q2, they might hit the number early July.

Great summary chart ... it will be interesting to see the production numbers for the next 3 months
My guess is a slow ramp from 2,000 to 5000 per week with Tesla very likely to hit 200K in June 2018.

 

[wdolson]

If it looks like they will hit 200K in June, they will probably "slow walk" the deliveries so they hit 200K at the beginning of Q3.

 

[FlatSix911]

Interesting reading... The 6 Automakers Closest To Losing Federal Tax Credit
Taking into consideration the numbers and pace of sales in the past months,
Tesla should hit 200,000 first, in the second quarter of this year (probably July/Q3 though).

But, if Tesla understands the value of that $7,500 credit, then it will likely limit deliveries in June, in order to hit 200,000 in July, thus making use of three months of the $7,500 amount, instead of just a few days. This is why Tesla sales shouldn’t exceed 22,000 in the U.S. this quarter, compared to 17,980 in Q1. General Motors should be second to the 200,000 level, some 3-6 months after Tesla.

 

[wdolson]

I believe there are about 1900 Roadsters that count against the 200K too. Inside EVs didn't include them in their chart for some reason.

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla sends out another Model 3 configuration invite batch despite production shutdown
Tesla is still not inviting non-owners who reserved after April 1, 2016 in the US, which they have done for owners. It’s important to note that many people who get invited don’t actually turn the reservation into an order for whatever reason – though the main one is generally because the configuration that they want is still not in production.

Over the last three weeks, Tesla was able to maintain a production rate of about 2,000 units per week, which is expected to result in many deliveries over the next few weeks. This week, Musk explained that the production shutdown is to update production systems in preparation for increasing the rate. There’s no indication that new features are coming to production after the shutdown.

The first new option is expected to be the dual motor powertrain, which Musk says is now planned for July. Furthermore, the latest invites are still going to US-based reservation holders – still giving no indication that Tesla is going to focus Model 3 deliveries in Canada in order to push the 200,000th US delivery. This represents the threshold for the start of the federal tax credit phaseout.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Doesn't the Mirai and other FCEVs count against the limit? (Not that we're talking about a lot of cars...)

 

[RobStark]

Doesn't the Mirai and other FCEVs count against the limit? (Not that we're talking about a lot of cars...)

No, that is a seperate credit. $8k

Alternative Fuels Data Center

 

[RobStark]

 

[wdolson]

It's a squeaker. If Tesla just sold normally this month, they probably would have gone over around June 15, but it appears they are slow walking most deliveries this month. It shows just how much things have changed when deliveries of around 6000 in a month is not only doable, but they have to put in an effort not to sell more than that. They were under 6000 US deliveries in a month as recently as February of this year. By later this year the Model 3 will probably be outselling every other EV for sale in the US combined.

 

[R.S]

It's a squeaker. If Tesla just sold normally this month, they probably would have gone over around June 15, but it appears they are slow walking most deliveries this month. It shows just how much things have changed when deliveries of around 6000 in a month is not only doable, but they have to put in an effort not to sell more than that. They were under 6000 US deliveries in a month as recently as February of this year. By later this year the Model 3 will probably be outselling every other EV for sale in the US combined.

Actually impressive that despite all the delays, they only needed to reduce a single month of sales. I was fearing they would be close to hitting 200k in the middle of a quarter.

But now they need to speed up and deliver as many as possible until the incentives are gone. Also good to see that they are producing AWD cars now, so there shouldn’t be any big obstacles ahead.

 

[wdolson]

I was thinking the best possible scenario would be hitting the 200K at the beginning of a quarter just as Model 3 production begins to hit its stride. They are pretty close to the ideal here.

 

[R.S]

I was thinking the best possible scenario would be hitting the 200K at the beginning of a quarter just as Model 3 production begins to hit its stride. They are pretty close to the ideal here.

Maybe even better than ideal, because they were able to delay some sales and now move in at full force. If they are really at 5k a week at the start on July, then it really went as good as it can get.