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The Real ValueAnalyst - AMA
- Thread starter ValueAnalyst
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No worries - I think finance experience is overrated. But it's important to understand how a DCF works to quickly judge how specific events/business transactions affect the valuation.
I am a contributor on SeekingAlpha, and I've been writing articles on Tesla for about six months now. You can read my previous articles here: ValueAnalyst's Articles | Seeking Alpha
I am in the process of setting up a monthly subscription service in which I will dig into everything about Tesla, but primarily from a valuation perspective. Writing through a subscription service, vs. free articles, will allow me to moderate the discussion as Tesla board on SeekingAlpha is known to have paid shorts/trolls that lower the quality of discussion.
Hope this helps.
I'd make that a degree in finance is overrated. I'd place a disposition to think for oneself head and shoulders above formal training in finance. the information age is wonderful for self-directed learning. there was a time in the late '90s and early '00s when analyst reports from virtually all the covering firms were freely available amid experimental online business models no longer here. I read tons of these reports on a couple of companies I was following intently. I came to be able to identify how skillfully each report and its financial models was created, and to what extent each was an exercise in understanding the value of a company, vs. an agenda to mislead about the same. among other tools of self-directed learning, that gave me enough of a finance background to have investing results beyond my wildest dreams over the past 17+ years... but, without thinking for myself, reading wildly varying valuations among the different firm's reports on the very same company probably would have just left me exasperated that "even the "experts" don't know what a company is worth," and out of the pair of investments that brought me those returns.
Do you sense a similarity to Julian Cox?
from General Discussion thread...
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
Ask me anythings are dangerous.
-- Age
-- Geographical background (where you grew up, what countries / states you lived in)
-- How and why you got into investing
-- Previous investing-related and other significant work experience
-- And this shouldn't matter, but there is statistical evidence that in our culture male investment advisors do worse for their clients on average than female ones. So: raised male or female?
This is, as you once said to me, just to get a feel for where you're coming from and what background led you to where you are now, so I can assess how that might influence your interpretation. You don't need to give exact details.
-- Age
-- Geographical background (where you grew up, what countries / states you lived in)
-- How and why you got into investing
-- Previous investing-related and other significant work experience
-- And this shouldn't matter, but there is statistical evidence that in our culture male investment advisors do worse for their clients on average than female ones. So: raised male or female?
This is, as you once said to me, just to get a feel for where you're coming from and what background led you to where you are now, so I can assess how that might influence your interpretation. You don't need to give exact details.
I'll answer the ones related to investing. Age, sex, race, sexual orientation, country of origin etc. do not matter.
I made my first investment two decades ago in currencies. I was looking to increase my savings so I could buy my significant other a better gift for their birthday. I bought them an MD player, which became obsolete shortly thereafter with the emergence of the mp3 technology.
I have a round finance and accounting experience following a double major in finance and economics and an advanced degree in accounting. I've completed the two widely recognized professional designations in the field.
translation-family trip to Canada when was 7 years old. went to bank to convert some currency, to by his mother a mothers day present.
seriously, though it is the internet! you could be anyone regardless of response.
I agree. Luckily you can pretty easily tell the person's knowledge/experience level from their responses.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
If I guess will you then provide the correct answer? I don't see much point in guessing as any guess would have high uncertainty... and you could just tell us.
Anyhoo since guessing games are so fun. I guess you are in your thirties.
I agree! Guessing games are fun. Especially when I'm the only person who knows the answer.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
So fun!
Hmmmm lets see. Internet entity "ValueAnalyst" does not want to share his age, or even his decade, despite there being no generally applying reason to withhold such information. This means that "ValueAnalyst" must have some reason for why he doesn't want this information to be known by this particular internet audience.
Internet entity "ValueAnalyst" has a financial motive to maximize the degree to which this audience believes him to be intelligent, shrewd, wise, experienced, successful, sober-minded and other things. Age is associated with at least some of these things.
Therefore "ValueAnalyst" probably would divulge his age, or at least his present decade, if it was somewhere in the 40-60 range, probably the ideal range if one wants to be taken as a trustworthy authority. Given comments about first being involved in investing twenty years ago, "ValueAnalyst" is probably not more than 60.
Additionally, "ValueAnalyst's" textual mannerisms are inconsistent with advanced age. Also "ValueAnalyst" is far to much of an "eager beaver" to be older than 60.
Therefore "ValueAnalyst" is probably in his thirties, possibly his twenties.
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Well, I guess I was cheating a bit: I was trying to evaluate your subconscious investing biases rather than your conscious investing views.
I think you've made it clear that you don't do the thing (aggressive and emotional risk-taking) which makes the average man do worse than the average woman in investing, which answers my actual question there....or does it? See below.
Age and locations lived determine specifically *which market experiences you remember*, which has a perhaps surprisingly strong effect on people's investing biases. You've probably roughly given away your age (+ or - 5 years) by saying when you first invested. Your writing style is also a hint which confirms the age guess. Unless you got involved in studying the markets ultra-young (as I did), or had a much older mentor (as I did), or spent an awful lot of time correcting your biases of childhood, this gives me a strong clue as to which biases you're likely to have macroeconomically and politically.
As for location, what you've said strongly indicates US (maybe Canada), but I don't know whether you have Rust Belt biases or California biases or Cascadia biases or Sunbelt biases, all of which do influence people's interpretation of Tesla, believe it or not. Guessing not rural. Could be NYC but probably a different big city.
When and where you got your econ degree could have a large influence on your view of the world economy. Which philosophy your university econ department followed matters. Looks like your degree was in the (very long) bad period when only a few universities were teaching anything half-decent in undergrad econ, but I don't know if you went to one of them...
Same with the accounting degrees, though there it mostly just matters which country -- I'm strongly guessing US (maybe Canada) from your writing style.
Sorry to be nosy, but I consider a lot of things, particularly diversity of experience relative to me, before I actually consider paying for someone's newsletter. (e.g. I'm more likely to pay for a newsletter from someone who grew up in China and invested there, since I've got so little similar experience)
Currencies. Very interesting first choice. Circa the Asian 1997 financial crisis, no less. And *just* after it become possible to trade currencies online with minimal upfront work in 1996. That actually is a pretty aggressive move. May I ask what trade you made back then?
You make some good assumptions and some bad ones, but I shouldn't give away any more specific info. I think we all know enough about each other to continue our discussion on Tesla and let the best ideas win regardless of who comes up with them.
I'm doing a AMA (ask me anything). But I won't answer 90% of what you ask.
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