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The reason Tesla will overtake BMW

ianc

Member
Nov 13, 2019
98
87
California
Had (and heavily modified) an E82 135i for over 10 years. Loved driving that car, but the maintenance, which I did myself, was just the death of me. By 80K, I'd done the water pump, multiple sets of injectors, multiple valve cover gaskets, spark plugs, rotors and pads, and all the other myriad crap that wears out on an ICE car. When you've done the same job 3x and you're getting on 60, there just seem to be a whole lot better ways to spend weekends and vacations. It never really shifted that well either, despite adding stiffer trans mounts.

Happy with the 3 and never going back to an ICE car either...
 

cwerdna

Active Member
Jul 11, 2012
3,633
2,543
SF Bay Area, CA
BMW 2020 US sales 280,297 vehicles

Tesla 2020 US sales 292,902 vehicles.

Worldwide we're probably looking at 2023 for Tesla to pass BMW in annual sales, though 2022 might be possible if BMWs sales keep dropping YoY as they did 19->20.
BMW Group concludes year marked by corona pandemic with strong fourth quarter and leads premium segment worldwide for 17th consecutive year

BMW Group in 2020 sold ~2.3 million vehicles worldwide. Per Tesla Q4 2020 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla Investor Relations, Tesla did just under 500K in that same time period.

Looking further down in the BMW press release, almost 1.9 million of BMW Group's sales that year were in Asia + Europe.

Seems unlikely Tesla's worldwide sales could exceed BMW Group's at the end of 2022...
 
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Dolemite

is my name
Sep 19, 2019
1,342
1,638
Seattle, WA
Had (and heavily modified) an E82 135i for over 10 years. Loved driving that car, but the maintenance, which I did myself, was just the death of me. By 80K, I'd done the water pump, multiple sets of injectors, multiple valve cover gaskets, spark plugs, rotors and pads, and all the other myriad crap that wears out on an ICE car. When you've done the same job 3x and you're getting on 60, there just seem to be a whole lot better ways to spend weekends and vacations. It never really shifted that well either, despite adding stiffer trans mounts.

Happy with the 3 and never going back to an ICE car either...
I've never done a VCG job without it not leaking again in <10K miles. I use OEM gaskets with the highest quality sealant in the right places with the right torque specs and tightening patterns... always starts leaking again.

ALWAYS
 

Rottenapplr

Active Member
Apr 6, 2019
1,013
483
LOS ANGELES
Had (and heavily modified) an E82 135i for over 10 years. Loved driving that car, but the maintenance, which I did myself, was just the death of me. By 80K, I'd done the water pump, multiple sets of injectors, multiple valve cover gaskets, spark plugs, rotors and pads, and all the other myriad crap that wears out on an ICE car. When you've done the same job 3x and you're getting on 60, there just seem to be a whole lot better ways to spend weekends and vacations. It never really shifted that well either, despite adding stiffer trans mounts.

Happy with the 3 and never going back to an ICE car either...
Gosh I love my e82 but it was the 128i manual m -sport. Never had any issue. Love that car I too did all the work but didn’t really experience anything like you had. I actually did a bbk upgrade. Changed suspension. The steering was lovey on that car.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
12,769
18,819
NC
BMW Group concludes year marked by corona pandemic with strong fourth quarter and leads premium segment worldwide for 17th consecutive year

BMW Group in 2020 sold ~2.3 million vehicles worldwide. Per Tesla Q4 2020 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla Investor Relations, Tesla did just under 500K in that same time period.

Looking further down in the BMW press release, almost 1.9 million of BMW Group's sales that year were in Asia + Europe.

Seems unlikely Tesla's worldwide sales could exceed BMW Group's at the end of 2022...


That's what I said probably 2023, but maybe 2022 if BMW sales keep dropping as they just did- they were down 15.7% in Europe year over year and down in the United States 18% year over year for example (Asia was only down 7.4%).

If BMWs sales KEEP declining like that, and Tesla keeps to the targets it has suggested for growth, it could pass BMW worldwide by end of 2022, but 2023 would be more likely.
 

cwerdna

Active Member
Jul 11, 2012
3,633
2,543
SF Bay Area, CA
(Asia was only down 7.4%).
BMW Group's Asia sales were not down 7.4% for 2020 vs. 2019. They were up 6.1%.

They went from 923,999 in Asia for 2019 to 984,515 for 2020.

You can confirm the figures at New all-time high for BMW Group deliveries in 2019 confirms position as world’s leading premium car company vs. BMW Group concludes year marked by corona pandemic with strong fourth quarter and leads premium segment worldwide for 17th consecutive year.

Let's revisit this in 2023.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
12,769
18,819
NC
Apologies- they were indeed up in Asia.

Not as far up as they were down everywhere else though.

Which is why they were only down, overall, 8.4% for the year- instead of double digits which they would've been without Asia to help.


So to be clear- If you continued that decline year over year for BMW, while increasing Teslas sales by projected amounts, Tesla should pass BMW on or before 2023.

Most folks are projecting somewhere in the 850k-1 million range for Tesla in 2021 (Troy has 880k for example, 875k from James Stephenson in a very detailed analysis, etc).


Those analysis are pinning those numbers on very little output from Berlin and Austin in 2021 as they'll just be ramping up.

That's about a 75% YoY increase...and 2022 is likely to be at least as large with those 2 new factories fully ramping and the 4680 supply also hitting high gear.

So that puts 2022 output around 1.5 million from Tesla.

Even dropping back to a mere 50% growth rate in 2023 puts them ahead of BMWs current sales, and as we've noted, BMWs sales are in decline.

If that decline accelerates it's not impossible you'd see Tesla outselling BMW by late 2022 (maybe for Q4 or something).

It's possible of course BMW will turn things around on their own sales- but given how slowly/poorly their EV movement has gone I wouldn't count on it.
 

dfwatt

Active Member
Sep 24, 2018
3,179
5,204
FL
The CEO of BMW just recently announced that he believed that the demand for ICE cars will be strong for another decade or two. I'd love to know what he's smoking
 

drtimhill

Active Member
Apr 25, 2019
1,928
2,414
Seattle
As a prior owner of 2 BMWs, I can say I loved them, but that was back in the last century when the cars were clearly designed by engineers who loved driving and poured that love into every aspect of the car. Now, BMW are controlled by marketing who are more concerned with bling and selling to owners who dont care how a car corners as long as the exhaust makes lots of (fake) noise. I still enjoy driving as much as I did back then, but I would not be seen dead in a BMW these days.
 

Rottenapplr

Active Member
Apr 6, 2019
1,013
483
LOS ANGELES
2 years maybe five years unlikely. Demand for ICE Vehicles will crater sometime in that interval. Not even close to 10 years of meaningful life span. You won't be able to give away an ICE car in 10 years.
Interesting time we live in. The excitement for me is EV and new EV. Not just Tesla mind you, even the Ford EV are interesting, same with Rivian, NIO, VE. EV in general are just more exciting. Ice cars are just… boring.
 

dfwatt

Active Member
Sep 24, 2018
3,179
5,204
FL
Interesting time we live in. The excitement for me is EV and new EV. Not just Tesla mind you, even the Ford EV are interesting, same with Rivian, NIO, VE. EV in general are just more exciting. Ice cars are just… boring.
And dead in the water. Even Porsche is expecting to sell more electric vehicles this year in its expensive taycan trims then it's most popular ICE sport utility vehicle the Macan and an electric version of that is coming out shortly. The electrification of Transportation is happening way faster than anyone predicted and it's being driven by market demand not by government incentives.
 

techlogik

Member
Mar 22, 2021
317
192
FL
ROFL....never happen. If anything BMW and others will start taking market from Tesla due to their ability to produce a quality car based off decades of experience.

Although, I'm going to move from my 2015 435i MSport to a Tesla 3...can't make myself every type M3....that is reserved for BMW...sorry Tesla people. I've owned 5 BMWs and just bought a new 2021 BMW X3 for my wife/family. Wife wouldn't own a Tesla for the life of her ever. She laughs at the absolute nothingness of the interior and says..yeah, not for me.
 

SpicyPaneer

Member
May 27, 2021
35
13
Franklin Park
How does this make any sense in comparison? Your tesla Model 3P vs regular BMW 440ix M-sport. Now if compared with a BMW M3 or M4, then the views would be different. The BMW M Line are the real suspension and engines modified from factory are the performance series.

Doug Dumuro is youTube douce bases reviews on users comment and he not real driver or reviewer.
 

electricar

Member
Jul 31, 2018
260
284
NotCal
Unfortunately BMW and the rest of the legacy OEMs have massive investments in factories that make ICE vehicles which are actually a liability at this point because transitioning them to efficiently make EVs will cost more than just building new factories. Their business model that uses dealers to sell cars to the public is also a liability because the only thing the dealers make money on now is service so they will resist the transition. Even GM had many dealers call and say “ come and get your sign - we’re done “ when informed that Cadillac would be going full EV. Then, of course, there is the problem of Tesla’s massive lead in engineering - Tesla open sourcing their patents scared them more than anything because they knew then that Tesla would be running while they were walking.
I have been trying to find an investment in charging infrastructure and can’t find any with a business model that can generate a profit now or in the future. This makes the supercharger network a moat around Tesla that won’t be going away any time soon.
Lastly anyone who owned a McLaren F1 is a car guy which makes Tesla the only major OEM to have one at the helm. The technology changes but selling cars has and always will be about exciting people’s emotions and right now Tesla is the object of desire among young people - the customers who will be buying cars for the next 50 years.
 
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raptor5244

Active Member
May 10, 2019
1,192
878
Florida
And dead in the water. Even Porsche is expecting to sell more electric vehicles this year in its expensive taycan trims then it's most popular ICE sport utility vehicle the Macan and an electric version of that is coming out shortly. The electrification of Transportation is happening way faster than anyone predicted and it's being driven by market demand not by government incentives.
Agreed and mainly because Tesla is the first company to build desirable EVs. The auto industry was so long overdue for a company like Tesla to advance things forward. The EV powertrain is one thing but look at how all the other manufacturers were caught flat footed when it comes to software and UI. I mean that is what is so radically different about Tesla. Giant displays with games, Netflix theater, Google Earth maps, AI voice commands, streaming audio, fart noises, Autopilot, etc. Controlling the whole car with an iPad-like touch interface is what makes the car relevant to the younger generation.

If GM built something better than a disgusting Chevy Bolt, or Nissan crappy Leaf then they would not have to play catch up but as mentioned in this thread they have too much investment in ICE based vehicles. Now Tesla has forced them to adapt, which is what the goal was all along.
 
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