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The Resource Angle

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by JRP3, Mar 26, 2014.

  1. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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  2. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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  3. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    Most excellent. Thanks for that JRP3. Also, like the idea of thread subject change. Given impending GF this will be an important piece
     
  4. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Done. But posters please keep some relevance to Tesla/TSLA.
     
  5. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    Excellent thanks Nigel.
    If Tesla can manage to source these Rawls from US/Canada. Going to be a huge win IMO. I see a lot of passion in Elon when discussing the Gfactory.
     
  6. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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  7. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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  8. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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  9. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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  10. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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  11. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    thanks for posting those JRP3;
    I wonder if the GF is incorporating synthetic graphite production within it's integration thesis.
     
  12. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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  13. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    What's our latest view on the material cost per kWh for the Gigafactory? Is $80 too optimistic or $100 too pessimistic? Additionally, on a per kg basis, do we expect material cost to increase, decrease or just keep pace with inflation over the next 10 years or more?
     
  14. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    Oil crash is bringing down the cost of metals used in Teslas

    I'd like to bring back this discussion and explore how the crash in oil is bringing down the cost of metals and other commodities used in making Tesla's cars. This site has good charts for historical prices.

    Commodity and Metal Prices, Metal Price Charts - InvestmentMine


    As you can see most metals used in Teslas have been coming down substantially in price over the last six months. Aluminum is quite volatile, so it is hard to tell if it is truly coming down in price. Otherwise everything else seems to be down 10% to 30%.

    It would be nice to know what amount of each commodity is used in a car. That way we could track the composite commodity cost of the Model S. My rough impression is that this composite could be down 20% or so. Naturally, oil is a big driver in the cost of producing most commodities. So it stands to reason that an oil glut would drive down commodities. I think this is really good news for Tesla as the oil crash could reduce Tesla's costs by a few percentage points and widen the gross margin.
     
  15. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Aluminum is obviously the largest commodity in S and X construction and will have a large impact on materials cost. Copper and Nickel are likely the only other elements of significance. With all the hand wringing going on about low oil prices negatively impacting Tesla, (none of which is legitimate in my view), I've see no one talking about the reduced materials and transportation costs which would actually benefit Tesla. We should be able to find the weight of the aluminum body and the basic ratio of battery elements to get approximate weights.
     
  16. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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  17. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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  18. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    In response to what I think is a misleading article on graphite, (http://seekingalpha.com/article/3297795-tesla-has-a-graphite-problem), there was an interesting comment about the type of graphite Zenyatta Ventures, ZEN.V, has access too. http://seekingalpha.com/article/3297795-tesla-has-a-graphite-problem#comment-55739355
    I haven't investigated the claims but it might be worth looking into.

     
  19. dakh

    dakh Member

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    Been looking for clues at this angle as well. One thing that I want to understand first is this: stationary storage might be a bigger contributor to raw material consumption in medium to long term. It doesn't have as high of an emphasis on energy density. Is it cost efficient to make somewhat less energy dense cells for the same capacity vs. the super high end stuff that is automotive grade?
     
  20. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Tesla has said that their stationary storage batteries are less energy dense than automotive. So that means more material weight and volume per kWh, but we don't know if that also means materials at a lower level of refinement, or if they are just sacrificing some energy density for durability. I suspect a bit of both.
     

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