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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by JRP3, Mar 26, 2014.
Looks like Anton has some competition for stupidest Tesla article I’ve ever seen.
Lithium mining isn’t generally all that bad.
Anton is in another league when it comes to stupidity. But Petersen keeps trying...
so price of cobalt has colapsed. Glenco is sitting on 10,300 tons of cobalt. the mine is shut for now for lack of demand for cobalt.
“Even after selling into the (spot) market in recent months, Glencore is holding large amounts of stock. They had to close Mumi (Mutanda), they are producing more than the market can absorb,” a cobalt trader said.
Glencore's cobalt stock overhang contains prices despite mine suspension - Reuters
Recycling doesn't really get going until a market stabilizes and most of the products are replacing existing ones. For example a big percentage of the steel used in cars today is recycled, but that didn't really start until the 1970s if I recall.
I can tell you right now to just ignore anything that guy writes. I read a few of his articles on Tesla, and I can tell you that it is %100 FUD. He's got a vendetta against EVs and Tesla. He is super-pro fossil fuels. Writes as if he is paid by Big Oil. Seriously. Just ignore him and save yourself a lot of time. You can put him in the same bucket with Anton Whalman.
I've been battling Petersen for years, he's more interesting than Anton.
From a link in the comment section:
JES : J. Electrochem. Soc. Jeff Dahn at work.
In summary, in this paper Jeff Dahn's group showed that Cobalt may play no useful role in the high Nickel NCA cell chemistries used by Tesla.
The significance of this research is it presents solid evidence that >90% Nickel NCA have already reduced cobalt so much it is no longer playing any useful role. Hence, we may only need small changes to current chemistry to remove cobalt - which should be much quicker than other proposals to start from scratch on a whole new cobalt free chemistry.
It presented preliminary evidence that 5% Al, 5% Mn or 5% Mg could all be viable cobalt substitutes, but it hadn't yet found the optimum mix and there is still a lot of work to do before we get a commercial product.
Tesla already uses far less cobalt than its competitors - I think 75% less than the most common NCA chemistry NCA 532.
I think Tesla's current NCA cathode chemistry is Nickel 93% Cobalt 5% and Aluminium 2%. I really don't think it will be long before Tesla moves to something like NA 9.5 0.5 - 95% Nickel, 5% Aluminium.
Anton is an idiots idiot, John Peterson is a smart guy stuck on a bad idea. His willingness to make fanciful logical leaps to support is wrongness is a testament to anchor points.
FWIW, America used to produce a Li-ion cathode powder that was 98%Ni, 2%Mg. But I think the company ceased to produce it. (I don't think it scaled past pilot plant size / cost insensitive applications)
China Molybdenum Says Giant Congo Copper Mine Is Losing Money
Discussion of some geothermal brine extraction of lithium EXPLAINER: Overview of Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) from Geothermal Brines
Chile’s attempts to move up the lithium value chain are not working
One problem is the country’s distance from manufacturing centres
[...] The idea was for Chile not only to mine the metal but also to make components for car batteries, the fastest-growing part of the market.
It does not help that almost nobody in Latin America is yet producing, or indeed buying, electric cars. It might be wiser to focus on producing simpler lithium-rich battery parts for energy-storage systems that could take advantage of the Atacama desert’s large solar-power potential, suggests José Lazuen of Roskill, a consultancy.
Regulations are another problem. Chile classifies lithium as “strategic”, because it can be used in nuclear fusion. The nuclear-energy commission limits the quantity of metal that can be mined. That is a worry for battery-makers that might want to expand. In the past decade Chile’s share of global lithium production has dropped from 40% to 20%. Although Chile has dozens of salt flats, only a few have been studied for their lithium-bearing potential. Brine-based lithium, of the sort mined in Chile, is more difficult to convert into the chemicals used for car batteries than is Australia’s output, extracted from rock. Mining also risks wrecking salt flats’ ecosystems.
Even as Chile strives to create a lithium-battery industry, scientists are trying to invent better batteries that use other materials. Moving up from mining is harder than it seems.
Nickle scarcity could cause short term price increases Nickel Is Hot Right Now - The Nickel Boom May Have Just Begun | Seeking Alpha
A recent spate of "Resources in Space" posts have popped up in the Big Thread. They belong here; they are extremely welcome here.
Othermod: I moved them with the Starlink posts to: SpaceX/Starlink market discussion --ggr
Good move by ggr, I don't think fantasizing about space mining is what this thread should be about.
I think this thread is the right thread?
So there's an interesting parallel, in a much lower-cost manufacturing industry - Xtracycle actually found that their carbon footprint was reduced significantly by moving production from California to Taiwan, and shipping the frames to California, because in California, they were shipping frames back and forth within California by truck, whereas in Taiwan bicycle frame manufacturing vendors were all much closer, to the point that it outweighed the carbon emissions from shipping the frames from Taiwan to Calfornia: How Green is Your Bike?
Possibly off-topic, but it turns out ICE has resource angles too:
The price of rhodium reaches an 11-year high
Used to curb emissions from car exhausts, the metal is six times pricier than gold
[...] The price of rhodium has leapt by 55% in the first three weeks of January alone, to $9,850. There is no telling when it will fall back to earth.
Surging demand from carmakers is partly to blame. More than four-fifths of global demand for both rhodium and palladium comes from the automotive industry. The metals, together with platinum, help convert toxic gases in a vehicle’s exhaust system (such as carbon monoxide) into less harmful substances before they exit the tailpipe. Facing stricter emissions regulations around the world, carmakers are taking even more of a shine to these metals. Although the price of palladium has reached a record high, that of platinum has stayed relatively stable. That contrast reflects a shift in production towards petrol and hybrid cars, which tend to use greater quantities of palladium in their converters, and away from diesel engines, which use more platinum.
Rhodium is expected to remain in high demand this year. BASF, a German chemicals giant, reckons that Chinese carmakers’ demand for rhodium will increase by 40% in 2020. But because electric vehicles do not use catalytic converters, demand in the longer term is far from assured. Rhodium could quickly lose its sheen.