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The Resource Angle

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It’s late. Don’t be coy. What did you find?

in second section of report:

Benchmark anticipates the Terafactory will be at 15GWh capacity for the full year of 2023 as it ramps to an expected 150GWh by 2029, three times the size of Tesla’s battery cell operations in Nevada (the original Gigafactory), Berlin, and Shanghai.

2029 should be expected to be much higher than 150gwh no?

and also, GF1 is at 35-40gwh by end 2020 so comparing the 2029 to what is currently output as of 2020 isnt much.

maybe just a typo? what am i missing?

Elon Musk revealed his ambition to have 1TWh or 1,000GWh of Tesla battery cell capacity by 2030, however. For context, the lithium ion battery market in 2020 is expected to be 210-220GWh yet in 2014 when Tesla announced the Gigafactory it was 60GWh in size.


then in the first sentence of the next paragraph they nullify the prior claim of 150gwh by 2030...


and then, i guess they mean;
in 2014 the expected completed output of 60gwh for gf1
but since upgraded to around 150gwh,
correct?
 
in second section of report:

Benchmark anticipates the Terafactory will be at 15GWh capacity for the full year of 2023 as it ramps to an expected 150GWh by 2029, three times the size of Tesla’s battery cell operations in Nevada (the original Gigafactory), Berlin, and Shanghai.

2029 should be expected to be much higher than 150gwh no?

and also, GF1 is at 35-40gwh by end 2020 so comparing the 2029 to what is currently output as of 2020 isnt much.

maybe just a typo? what am i missing?

Elon Musk revealed his ambition to have 1TWh or 1,000GWh of Tesla battery cell capacity by 2030, however. For context, the lithium ion battery market in 2020 is expected to be 210-220GWh yet in 2014 when Tesla announced the Gigafactory it was 60GWh in size.


then in the first sentence of the next paragraph they nullify the prior claim of 150gwh by 2030...


and then, i guess they mean;
in 2014 the expected completed output of 60gwh for gf1
but since upgraded to around 150gwh,
correct?

Wont there be more than one Tesla battery factory?
 
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@AudubonB so you invest, debt or equity, in junior extraction companies? If not, why not? I’m trying to learn a bit about it.
In earlier times, I invested in ...
  • Some large-cap companies like Inco, Phelps Dodge and Alcoa, mostly as a function of those two big drivers: the economic cycle and where their particular P/E ratio was (see below)
  • Some up-and-comers like that Freeport spin-off “Freeport Copper” (symbol now FCX) which eventually became effectively the “real” Freeport. This was an enormous winner for me as I dove in because of my specific knowledge of their Indonesian deposit, the legendary Ertsberg....which soon was dwarfed by the unbeatable, unbelievably huge and rich Grasberg. I got out of it when I no longer had confidence in Jim Bob Moffet’s decisonmaking, but FCX made me more money than any of my other mining investments. I was in just about from the start, so it sort of counts as a “junior”, but it had a big, long-established parent. My very vague recollection is that their market cap when I got in was between $600 and $750 million, which even in the 1980s was pretty small, although larger than most “juniors”.
  • In a few gold companies; I was an early investor in Peter Munk’s ventures - American Barrick, Franco-Nevada and Euro-Nevada, all of which did very well and collectively made me more than did FCX.
  • In and out of TVX, driven mainly by my personal connection to Eike. And I got out of it for good after one of my very last trips to Brazil, when I saw him losing all control. And this was long before he became the world’s 8th wealthiest man....which was shortly before I became richer than him by about $1 billion. Sound nice? I’ve shared the secret here long past - it’s because he lost more than everything and had a negative net worth of about that $1bn.
  • Aaaannnndddd.....almost all of my plays in juniors have been confined to short-selling, and if I still sold short I’d keep at it that way. Very, very few juniors are worth anything at all and never will be, AND they have an incredibly consistent common thread of being run by the world’s worst businessmen - think of them as Cinnabon managerial dropouts.
Metals companies and P/E: here’s my free advice - remember it’s worth what you’re paying.
  • Buy metals companies - and other cyclical commodities - when their P/Es are high, NOT low. It’s counterintuitive but only at the first iteration. Take it to the second derivative and you might figure out why.
Nowadays, I’m a lazy investor. If I have some investable cash, I wait until there’s a good dip in TSLA and pick up more. That’s worked rather well since early 2013.....
 
It seems the entire lithium community believes that Elon's attempts at mining are mostly and mostly a bargaining tactic.

In the "automotive community" 5-6 years ago it was consensus that Elon was pumping up Tesla to sell itself to a Major OEM. No one took Musk seriously when he said Tesla would become a major OEM.

Disruptees never believe the Disrupter before the actual Disruption.
 
Very, very few juniors are worth anything at all and never will be, AND they have an incredibly consistent common thread of being run by the world’s worst businessmen - think of them as Cinnabon managerial dropouts.

OK then, don't hold back on your opinions :)

I wonder if lithium and nickel mining will attract better talent now that it is seen as a growth play?

Nowadays, I’m a lazy investor. If I have some investable cash, I wait until there’s a good dip in TSLA and pick up more. That’s worked rather well since early 2013.....

Yes it has. And I just thought of something else. Investing in commodity stocks that are related to the EV industry is a risk concentration if you hold a lot of TSLA. If TSLA falters, the mining companies will falter even bigger. The returns are going to be bigger if you invest in mining juniors (just look at PLL, LAC and SGMLF), but there is a lot of risk there too.
 
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Investing in commodity stocks that are related to the EV industry is a risk concentration if you hold a lot of TSLA. If TSLA falters, the mining companies will falter even bigger.

But what if TSLA falters because they can't get enough lithium or nickel? Part of the reason I am investing in lithium and nickel companies is because I see a shortage of those materials as a risk to Tesla's incredibly ambitious battery growth plans. And based on the webinar you attended so do the miners in this space.
 
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It's nice to have this thread to discuss these issues instead of the main investment thread because there is less of a chance of it turning into FUD. Still it would be nice if we had a few more participants. At least I feel the quality of participation here is high. It's always a balance.
 
It's nice to have this thread to discuss these issues instead of the main investment thread because there is less of a chance of it turning into FUD. Still it would be nice if we had a few more participants.

Yes, but this is a Tesla discussion forum. You probably can seek out and find all sorts of resource investment forums elsewhere.

I was surprised when that benchmark call only had 50 or do people on it. The quality of info was great. YOu just don't see that level of access for many industries. it shows how small the resource investment community is overall. Why that is, I have no clue.
 
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OK then, don't hold back on your opinions :)

I wonder if lithium and nickel mining will attract better talent now that it is seen as a growth play?



Yes it has. And I just thought of something else. Investing in commodity stocks that are related to the EV industry is a risk concentration if you hold a lot of TSLA. If TSLA falters, the mining companies will falter even bigger. The returns are going to be bigger if you invest in mining juniors (just look at PLL, LAC and SGMLF), but there is a lot of risk there too.
I was a member of, and for a while headed, what Wall St. calls one of the Analyst “splinter groups”. Analysts - both Buy side (think ARK and their folks), and the Sell side - think Adam Jonas, Gordon Johnson and such - aren’t just some amorphous group of CFAs, but there are sector specialists. I belonged to the Metals group, even though I covered far more segments of the investment world.

We met once a month and every meeting featured one - never two - companies. I cannot think of a time, ever, that it was someone other than the CEO who gave the presentation, although he or she* often had also the CFO and, if a mining or expl’n company, perhaps a technical EVP, along to assist. I got to know a lot of these people. Paul O’Neil of Alcoa, George Munroe, “Bull” Durham and Doug Yearley at Phelps Dodge and Peter Munk of the Barrick group...and that’s about it...are the only company heads I would give an “A” to; as far as juniors go, yes: a number of them had what it takes to be dynamic explorers but it was unfailingly painful to listen to them trying to act as a head of a corporation.

*in hundred of meetings, we did hear once from a woman: Peggy ___???___, head of a Canadian gold expl’n company called Royal Oak. Last name may have been Witte.

Two items of importance are first, this was before changes induced primarily by Dodd-Frank limited what companies could share with us at these meetings. It is not to say that we ever learned inside information, but the nuances and expansions of what companies gave in publicly released documents absolutely gave both the Buy and Sell sides of the professional investment community a real edge over the ‘public’ - whoever they are. It is important to bear in mind that it used to be the case that all but a vanishingly small fraction of one percent of trading occurred under that aegis - the individual investor was a true anomaly.
Second, this was in the era where the prestige baton was being passed from the Sell side to the Buy side. Prestige....buckaroonie$ AND caliber. Think of Cathie Wood and her coterie, and the quality of their work, versus those of the investment banks. I’ll stop here.
 
Aaaannnndddd.....almost all of my plays in juniors have been confined to short-selling, and if I still sold short I’d keep at it that way. Very, very few juniors are worth anything at all and never will be, AND they have an incredibly consistent common thread of being run by the world’s worst businessmen - think of them as Cinnabon managerial dropouts
Funny that you mention it. As I was attempting to research Tesla's foray into lithium mining, I found myself thinking the same thing. I watched quite a few YouTube videos and I often got a bit of a slick/slimy impression from the heads of some of these junior miner/resource companies.