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The Short Case Is Far More Than Valuation

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by palmer_md, Dec 1, 2015.

  1. palmer_md

    palmer_md Member

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    Tesla Motors (TSLA): The Short Case Is Far More Than Valuation

    I did not follow all the links in this article (way too many links), but the few I did showed me that the writer does not have a very good understanding of TSLA. I was an interesting read, and I'm sure he is not the only one who thinks this way. Its amazing how many people just don't get what is going on here.
     
  2. johnnyduval

    johnnyduval Member

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    she.

    just sayin.
     
  3. dakh

    dakh Member

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    This here is pretty much why I'm trying to figure out what to do with my cash stash myself. Index investing is cool but there's too much paper money chasing real assets to get much out of that these days. What a hack, and they're supposedly professionals getting paid doing this stuff.
     
  4. Gerardf

    Gerardf Active Member

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    The article itself is indeed written bij a 'she'. However the "way-to-many' links are from the embedded article, being written by Mark Spiegel. Sounds to me like he is getting a bit worried.
    I hope all his clients are well aware of the risk he is taking betting with their money against TSLA with all the expected Q4 & Q1 developments.
     
  5. maxlength888

    maxlength888 Member

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    Reading this article actually had me quite worried. He does bring up some points that the bulls have not rebutted yet. Sure, LG can supply electric power trains and Mercedes can end supply agreements in order to facilitate their own competitive EV, but why are insiders dumping shares? Why is Musk posting help wanted ads on Twitter? I have a fair amount of my money invested in this company, and like to remain an optimist, but this article had me shaking in my bunny slippers.
     
  6. Gerardf

    Gerardf Active Member

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    #6 Gerardf, Dec 2, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2015
    Do not let Mr. Spiegel scare you, google around and read up on his history and position towards TSLA. He has been wrong about Tesla many, many times before. He has good reasons to spread his FUD, being a TSLA short in his hedge fund.

    The insiders are not 'dumping shares'. This comes up every now and then.
    Several post on this forum already discussed this. Example post / thread : Management Stock Options and other nonsense from Doug Kass - Page 3


    Regarding the Tweet of Elon. Well, he has millions of followers, of which quite many that are involved in state-of-the-art software engineering. So what better way (and why spend advertising money) to get the word out he is looking around for the best-of-the-best ?
     
  7. LetsGoFast

    LetsGoFast Active Member

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    I took a quick look at that section and it isn't very convincing. The now gone CFO started the period with 7,270 shares and ended the period with 7,270 shares. What happened was that he exercised stock options and converted them to cash. This is extremely common and doesn't reflect any particular issue relating to confidence in the underlying stock. I personally frequently convert my NQSOs to cash too. As noted in the actual filing: "The stock option exercise and sales reported on this Form 4 were effected pursuant to a pre-determined Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by the reporting person on March 3, 2014 and amended on March 3, 2015. The reporting person adopted the trading plan to periodically exercise long held stock options that are expiring in September 2015 and April 2016." Meaning that they set up a plan to dispose of the shares in early 2014 and it was just exercised on time. Although the person didn't link to the most clear EDGAR filing, it does appear that Jerome liquidated his position in the company on his way out. The VP of Manufacturing looks like a guy who never owned much stock and just cashed in his options. The filing indicates that the options were part of his compensation plan -- when hired he received 272k in base pay and $5 million in stock options. It would be crazy for someone earning 272k to sit with $5m in stock options in a single company.

    The link for Struebel is a joke. He is described as "steadily dumping" when he started the period with 134,902 shares and ended the period with 134,902. He simply traded off 10,000 shares, reflecting a small portion of his holdings. He too is paid a reasonably modest salary (249k) with nearly $17 million in stocks and options.
     
  8. palmer_md

    palmer_md Member

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    I see you all came to the same conclusions I did about the links. All the links seem to have the same doom and gloom look at things, but with a little bit of analysis it's simply not true. His opening line about shorting Musk, and his closing line about TSLA being his (Elon's) personal vanity project would be enough for me to dump this guy if I had any money invested in his fund. Not a very professional approach to communicating to investors, but I do appreciate his honesty, so I guess that is good to know that he states his view about the company clearly for those who want to know how he feels about what he puts the investment money into.
     
  9. hockeythug

    hockeythug Active Member

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    Case closed. Nice work.
     
  10. Ocelot

    Ocelot Member

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    Thanks for that analysis. It is very beneficial.
     
  11. maxlength888

    maxlength888 Member

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    I can sleep at night! Thanks for the fine work.
     

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