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The success of FSD and my increase for trust in Tesla

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I paid 10 grand and now my already great Model Y now drives itself through my town. It slows down for speed bumps, handles four ways on its own, swerves around bikers and parked cars who's doors are open. It handles the 5 and the 405 quite well too!

Obviously it's not perfect and can do the wrong thing at the wrong time and has a price tag you don't like. But dude the car is literally driving itself. Do you own another car that can do that? Does your $80,000 Bronco do it? Your $90,000 lightning that hasn't even been delivered yet? Maybe your R1T will have lane keep assist when it's delivered to you in 2023 lol.

Haters are going to hate Tesla until they're blue in the face, but no matter what haters say Tesla actually delivered here on FSD and my Model Y is the only SUV (apart from the X 😉) that will drive and park itself. My trust in Tesla has only gone up because it's clear they're perhaps the only company in the world bold enough to build FSD and actually give it to real customers. Ford Blue Cruise works on like 1 highway... FSD works on back alley streets in the Hollywood hills.

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I paid 10 grand and now my already great Model Y now drives itself through my town. It slows down for speed bumps, handles four ways on its own, swerves around bikers and parked cars who's doors are open. It handles the 5 and the 405 quite well too!

Obviously it's not perfect and can do the wrong thing at the wrong time and has a price tag you don't like. But dude the car is literally driving itself. Do you own another car that can do that? Does your $80,000 Bronco do it? Your $90,000 lightning that hasn't even been delivered yet? Maybe your R1T will have lane keep assist when it's delivered to you in 2023 lol.

Haters are going to hate Tesla until they're blue in the face, but no matter what haters say Tesla actually delivered here on FSD and my Model Y is the only SUV (apart from the X 😉) that will drive and park itself. My trust in Tesla has only gone up because it's clear they're perhaps the only company in the world bold enough to build FSD and actually give it to real customers. Ford Blue Cruise works on like 1 highway... FSD works on back alley streets in the Hollywood hills.
Couldn't agree with you more. FSD is far from perfect, but it keeps getting better. And it's amazing, even if imperfect!
 
I paid 10 grand and now my already great Model Y now drives itself through my town. It slows down for speed bumps, handles four ways on its own, swerves around bikers and parked cars who's doors are open. It handles the 5 and the 405 quite well too!

Obviously it's not perfect and can do the wrong thing at the wrong time and has a price tag you don't like. But dude the car is literally driving itself. Do you own another car that can do that? Does your $80,000 Bronco do it? Your $90,000 lightning that hasn't even been delivered yet? Maybe your R1T will have lane keep assist when it's delivered to you in 2023 lol.

Haters are going to hate Tesla until they're blue in the face, but no matter what haters say Tesla actually delivered here on FSD and my Model Y is the only SUV (apart from the X 😉) that will drive and park itself. My trust in Tesla has only gone up because it's clear they're perhaps the only company in the world bold enough to build FSD and actually give it to real customers. Ford Blue Cruise works on like 1 highway... FSD works on back alley streets in the Hollywood hills.
even without FSD Beta agreed lol... hell i've been in safety score jail for months which sucks but even with that detractor and standard AP, its remarkable what it does, literally nothing on the market is even close, i can't wait to try the beta (and be done with the 1 sore spot i have haha)
 
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What I find it is I have a love/hate relationship with the car far greater than any other car including a 2015 Model S.

Part of this is the sheer potential it has, and how nice it can be when things work well. Like Auto Lane change is an example of a feature that works really well most of the time, and even when its raining it tries really hard to keep going while the image in the side camera is bouncing around due to water droplets.

You can tell Tesla drivers expect certain functionality to just work in a Tesla by looking at the percentage of Tesla 3/Y's on the road who aren't using their lights in the rain during the day. Around where I live its nearly 100%.

This is a high number of people who are trusting a machine to work with no idea that it's not actually working. It used to work, but then Tesla removed the functionality that was tied to the wipers for some unknown reason.

Much of this same expectation of working is with a lot of features, and when it doesn't work it can be frustrating for two reasons. the first reason is the potential, and the 2nd reason is there is no one to address the issue. There is no support email or any kind of bug tracking.

A lot of times its over the dumbest thing possible like the auto-lights being disconnected from the wiper control or a maps issue that would be quick to fix.

The supply chain constraints and the resulting lack of competition also means there isn't a lot of other options.

I'm switching to Rivian for a variety of reasons, but that switch won't happen anytime soon.
 
What I find it is I have a love/hate relationship with the car far greater than any other car including a 2015 Model S.

Part of this is the sheer potential it has, and how nice it can be when things work well. Like Auto Lane change is an example of a feature that works really well most of the time, and even when its raining it tries really hard to keep going while the image in the side camera is bouncing around due to water droplets.

You can tell Tesla drivers expect certain functionality to just work in a Tesla by looking at the percentage of Tesla 3/Y's on the road who aren't using their lights in the rain during the day. Around where I live its nearly 100%.

This is a high number of people who are trusting a machine to work with no idea that it's not actually working. It used to work, but then Tesla removed the functionality that was tied to the wipers for some unknown reason.

Much of this same expectation of working is with a lot of features, and when it doesn't work it can be frustrating for two reasons. the first reason is the potential, and the 2nd reason is there is no one to address the issue. There is no support email or any kind of bug tracking.

A lot of times its over the dumbest thing possible like the auto-lights being disconnected from the wiper control or a maps issue that would be quick to fix.

The supply chain constraints and the resulting lack of competition also means there isn't a lot of other options.

I'm switching to Rivian for a variety of reasons, but that switch won't happen anytime soon.
Rivian has some nice offerings if/when you can actually get one lol... but if you think they wont be subject to the same issues or at least the same types of issues your kidding yourself. anything new is gonna have problems and they are years behind tesla both in software dev and hardware design, i'd be shocked if anyone in the automated driving sphere didn't have these types of bugs as they are developed. a decade from now we'll actually have options, not to excuse flaws by tesla but at this stage it is what it is and tesla is the front runner lol.... just IMHO
 
I paid 10 grand and now my already great Model Y now drives itself through my town. It slows down for speed bumps, handles four ways on its own, swerves around bikers and parked cars who's doors are open. It handles the 5 and the 405 quite well too!

Obviously it's not perfect and can do the wrong thing at the wrong time and has a price tag you don't like. But dude the car is literally driving itself. Do you own another car that can do that? Does your $80,000 Bronco do it? Your $90,000 lightning that hasn't even been delivered yet? Maybe your R1T will have lane keep assist when it's delivered to you in 2023 lol.

Haters are going to hate Tesla until they're blue in the face, but no matter what haters say Tesla actually delivered here on FSD and my Model Y is the only SUV (apart from the X 😉) that will drive and park itself. My trust in Tesla has only gone up because it's clear they're perhaps the only company in the world bold enough to build FSD and actually give it to real customers. Ford Blue Cruise works on like 1 highway... FSD works on back alley streets in the Hollywood hills.
Sometimes people have a tendency to justify their purchase. Are you sure there is not some of that going on here? Does FSD see potholes? Does it adjust its speed based on driving conditions? Does it stay out of other drivers blind spots? Does it change lanes if a dump truck in front of you is dropping rocks all over the road? Can it park without backing into a spot? Don't get me wrong the thought of true FSD is cool and I applaud Tesla for tackling it but let's call it what it is.

As it relates to Broncos and F-150 Lightnings, what makes you think those buyers want FSD anyway in those vehicles? A Bronco specced out for $80k is probably an off road machine and no FSD is going to help you there. As for the Ford F150 Lightning, true truck owners have different priorities. I highly doubt FSD is on the top of their list, they want range, the ability to tow something more than a 100 miles before having to recharge. You call out the delays of the R1T and Lightning but where is the Cybertruck and the pricing they advertised to the world?

I am not a hating on Tesla as I own a pair of them but let's be real. Tesla make a great Model 3/Y. Great powertrain and performance, decent styling, great tech, average interior and arguably below average build quality but getting better. There is also no reason to believe the rest of the automakers will be unable to design and deliver compelling EVs as well.
 
Sometimes people have a tendency to justify their purchase. Are you sure there is not some of that going on here? Does FSD see potholes? Does it adjust its speed based on driving conditions? Does it stay out of other drivers blind spots? Does it change lanes if a dump truck in front of you is dropping rocks all over the road? Can it park without backing into a spot? Don't get me wrong the thought of true FSD is cool and I applaud Tesla for tackling it but let's call it what it is.

As it relates to Broncos and F-150 Lightnings, what makes you think those buyers want FSD anyway in those vehicles? A Bronco specced out for $80k is probably an off road machine and no FSD is going to help you there. As for the Ford F150 Lightning, true truck owners have different priorities. I highly doubt FSD is on the top of their list, they want range, the ability to tow something more than a 100 miles before having to recharge. You call out the delays of the R1T and Lightning but where is the Cybertruck and the pricing they advertised to the world?

I am not a hating on Tesla as I own a pair of them but let's be real. Tesla make a great Model 3/Y. Great powertrain and performance, decent styling, great tech, average interior and arguably below average build quality but getting better. There is also no reason to believe the rest of the automakers will be unable to design and deliver compelling EVs as well.
you might be falling victim to your own implication in reverse there, i do love my tesla and am very happy with it, i'm also very much aware of its limitations and failings, that said, show me anything even remotely close in terms of features that you can actually buy today. the proof is in the pudding so they say lol, if all these other companies could make "Tesla Killers" they would do so, its that simple. the fact that all we see is prototypes and promises from basically everyone tells us all we need to know... i'd personally love to see a system that can stay out of blind spots and avoid pot holes but so far as i know that doesn't exist outside of press releases at best.
 
you might be falling victim to your own implication in reverse there, i do love my tesla and am very happy with it, i'm also very much aware of its limitations and failings, that said, show me anything even remotely close in terms of features that you can actually buy today. the proof is in the pudding so they say lol, if all these other companies could make "Tesla Killers" they would do so, its that simple. the fact that all we see is prototypes and promises from basically everyone tells us all we need to know... i'd personally love to see a system that can stay out of blind spots and avoid pot holes but so far as i know that doesn't exist outside of press releases at best.

No doubt, Tesla has had the early mover advantage and the auto industry desperately needed a Tesla to disrupt the market and drive change. That said, there is no reason to think that other automakers will not be able to build compelling EVs. Keep in mind that the rest of the market has to please their shareholders with their existing ICE business, so they were not just going to migrate to EV until forced to do so. The other thing to consider is that the market is too big for Tesla so regardless of how good the EV is buyers are going to want choices, differently styling etc. For example, not everyone wants a vehicle in a glass bubble.

As far as FSD goes, that is a long term project that will require lots of regulation, etc. but short term pretty much all automakers will eventually deliver the base Autopilot features at some point and they will show up at a much lower price point. I personally think $12k for FSD perpetual beta or $200 a month is ludicrous. I see it mainly as a toy/hobby for folks with extra disposable income laying around since no one really "needs" FSD and you can't fully trust it to drive you to work and back.

Many of the traditional automakers are shifting their business right now and hiring the type of engineers required to design and support these new EV platforms. For example, look at how Ford has split their company into an EV business and an ICE business, which will help them to accelerate EV business. I think you will see some of the traditional automakers leverage their expertise and deliver some nice EVs with better chassis design and suspensions, better build quality, interiors with more options, more exterior colors, etc. So, I think they are going to build a nice vehicles, they will just need to prove that they can build a reliable EV powertrain, battery and user friendly UI with OTA updates. Time will tell, but sadly I think EVs are going to be quite expensive for the foreseeable future until we can figure out a way to scale battery production. My 2019 M3 SR+ was $36,250 after the $3,750 tax credit. The same car now is approaching $50k. We are moving in the wrong direction...
 
No doubt, Tesla has had the early mover advantage and the auto industry desperately needed a Tesla to disrupt the market and drive change. That said, there is no reason to think that other automakers will not be able to build compelling EVs. Keep in mind that the rest of the market has to please their shareholders with their existing ICE business, so they were not just going to migrate to EV until forced to do so. The other thing to consider is that the market is too big for Tesla so regardless of how good the EV is buyers are going to want choices, differently styling etc. For example, not everyone wants a vehicle in a glass bubble.

As far as FSD goes, that is a long term project that will require lots of regulation, etc. but short term pretty much all automakers will eventually deliver the base Autopilot features at some point and they will show up at a much lower price point. I personally think $12k for FSD perpetual beta or $200 a month is ludicrous. I see it mainly as a toy/hobby for folks with extra disposable income laying around since no one really "needs" FSD and you can't fully trust it to drive you to work and back.

Many of the traditional automakers are shifting their business right now and hiring the type of engineers required to design and support these new EV platforms. For example, look at how Ford has split their company into an EV business and an ICE business, which will help them to accelerate EV business. I think you will see some of the traditional automakers leverage their expertise and deliver some nice EVs with better chassis design and suspensions, better build quality, interiors with more options, more exterior colors, etc. So, I think they are going to build a nice vehicles, they will just need to prove that they can build a reliable EV powertrain, battery and user friendly UI with OTA updates. Time will tell, but sadly I think EVs are going to be quite expensive for the foreseeable future until we can figure out a way to scale battery production. My 2019 M3 SR+ was $36,250 after the $3,750 tax credit. The same car now is approaching $50k. We are moving in the wrong direction...
oh don't get me wrong competition is coming for tesla, but it's a good 5-10 years away at best. the real problem for traditional car makers is they have embedded deals with hundreds / thousands of companies to make the various parts for their cars, many of them exclusive.... were ford to actually fully switch over to EVs it would put thousands of people out of work and companies would shutter. not to mention they now have to forge all new deals and agreements to build the parts for EVs that they can't currently. then there is the problem with dealership rights agreements that require them to fulfill various items, which has no easy solution, you already see every car maker trying to figure out ways to sell direct to the public, but there again will take years to figure out and put into effect. and on top of all that, dispite everyone saying how they are going all EV by 2030, the money spent would suggest otherwise. forget the fact that financially making EV's makes no sence for them, they are already churning cars that, as you said, are much more attainable to the average person. imo all these EV's by ford, Chrysler, etc.. are a song and dance, simply to check the box for the good press. sure they will make them but not in any significant quantity.

the real competition, as i see it, is from the other non-traditional makers out there trying to break into the EV market, lucid and the like, but they have a rough road a head, much like tesla did in the early days, people are wary of new brands, espically when they cost over 100k lol. tesla has been around for quite a while now and really only the last few years that non-techy people really give them any credence.

where FSD is concerned, i do agree its hard to justify the 12k cost for what you actually get at this moment, tho the auto lane change is ALMOST worth the extra expense for me lol. the one thing you have to keep in mind from traditional makers tho, you can't get their most advanced features on the cheapest car. typically you have to buy the higher trim packages, so yes maybe super cruise only costs an extra 3k but you gotta buy the 8k premium trim package to get it, so the actual cost can wind up about the same really. then when they do have more AP-like features in the future, they will likely price them, or bake the price in, similar to tesla since they've already proven people will pay it lol. and yes the prices in this segment are just nuts, would be nice to see the competition as it would drive prices down, but sadly we are quite a ways from that i think (sorry for the book! lol) :)
 
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When you talk about only SUV (Model X/Y) that can self-drive, why not consider these:

Arcfox Alpha S Huawei Hi (3 Laser Radar and 400TOPS, way more reliable Full Self Drive in the city with no safety score needed - Around 80000 USD, in limited metropolis, and a Limited Self Drive in Smaller City since users have to build their own map together by their car's laser radar)
NIO ES6/8 and EC6 (NOP, a kind of but better NoA,)
Aion V Plus(a kind of but worse NoA)
LiXiang One(a kind of but worse NoA, PHEV)

If a sedan is OK:
XPeng P5 (2 Laser Radar, Full Self Drive in City Road, exclude those that are too small that without High-precision map, but only 40000USD include the software package, have a built-in cinema and a drone, software expect to the delivery end of this year, unfortunately)
XPeng P7/P5(NGP, kind of but way better NoA, also support in-city Fast Lane beside highway)

Tesla is the best and leading in ADAS, but just in North America
 
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When you talk about only SUV (Model X/Y) that can self-drive, why not consider these:

Arcfox Alpha S Huawei Hi (3 Laser Radar and 400TOPS, way more reliable Full Self Drive in the city with no safety score needed - Around 80000 USD, in limited metropolis, and a Limited Self Drive in Smaller City since users have to build their own map together by their car's laser radar)
NIO ES6/8 and EC6 (NOP, a kind of but better NoA,)
Aion V Plus(a kind of but worse NoA)
LiXiang One(a kind of but worse NoA, PHEV)

If a sedan is OK:
XPeng P5 (2 Laser Radar, Full Self Drive in City Road, exclude those that are too small that without High-precision map, but only 40000USD include the software package, have a built-in cinema and a drone, software expect to the delivery end of this year, unfortunately)
XPeng P7/P5(NGP, kind of but way better NoA, also support in-city Fast Lane beside highway)

Tesla is the best and leading in ADAS, but just in North America
impressive list! lol

i thought about mentioning the overseas operations, some of their stuff is very impressive to say the least. a very solid argument to be made that the legacy auto makers will end up with that tech in their cars or something but i still maintain will be close to a decade before anything like that is realized here in the US. and at the end of the day i'd still argue that tesla leads the pack, tho admittedly its not entirely clear and completely open for debate.
 
When you talk about only SUV (Model X/Y) that can self-drive, why not consider these:

Arcfox Alpha S Huawei Hi (3 Laser Radar and 400TOPS, way more reliable Full Self Drive in the city with no safety score needed - Around 80000 USD, in limited metropolis, and a Limited Self Drive in Smaller City since users have to build their own map together by their car's laser radar)
NIO ES6/8 and EC6 (NOP, a kind of but better NoA,)
Aion V Plus(a kind of but worse NoA)
LiXiang One(a kind of but worse NoA, PHEV)

If a sedan is OK:
XPeng P5 (2 Laser Radar, Full Self Drive in City Road, exclude those that are too small that without High-precision map, but only 40000USD include the software package, have a built-in cinema and a drone, software expect to the delivery end of this year, unfortunately)
XPeng P7/P5(NGP, kind of but way better NoA, also support in-city Fast Lane beside highway)

Tesla is the best and leading in ADAS, but just in North America

Are there [non-marketing] videos showing the performance of these systems? I'm a bit skeptical. If these systems were good, we'd hear about it. The Great Firewall is pretty leaky despite the CCP's best efforts.
 
Are there [non-marketing] videos showing the performance of these systems? I'm a bit skeptical. If these systems were good, we'd hear about it. The Great Firewall is pretty leaky despite the CCP's best efforts.
I can give you a few but in Chinese, most of them are NoA-like stuff, since there is only internal delivery for the arcfox.

From Media:

我们凑齐了导航辅助驾驶的蔚小理,发现它们竟然都败给了他!【电动知士TEST S04E01】_哔哩哔哩_bilibili
(NoA for NIO/XPeng/LiXiang Review)
(NoA for Tesla/NIO/XPeng Review, but in 2021.Feb)

(ArcFox Hi FSD in Shanghai, but actually is from media, I don't know if this is non-marketing)

(Auto Park with Route memory, Cross the Floor, Kind of Reverse Summon but way more Powerful)

Some Random or Power User:

They may not have the latest version

XPeng NGP:

NIO NoP:
(Please be advised that it only got 2.5TOPS, while tesla 144)

LiXiang:

Infinity many of these
 
impressive list! lol

i thought about mentioning the overseas operations, some of their stuff is very impressive to say the least. a very solid argument to be made that the legacy auto makers will end up with that tech in their cars or something but i still maintain will be close to a decade before anything like that is realized here in the US. and at the end of the day i'd still argue that tesla leads the pack, tho admittedly its not entirely clear and completely open for debate.
The Tesla Vision solution is a miracle, but I believe in lidar because of its reliability
 
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I can give you a few but in Chinese, most of them are NoA-like stuff, since there is only internal delivery for the arcfox.

From Media:

我们凑齐了导航辅助驾驶的蔚小理,发现它们竟然都败给了他!【电动知士TEST S04E01】_哔哩哔哩_bilibili
(NoA for NIO/XPeng/LiXiang Review)
(NoA for Tesla/NIO/XPeng Review, but in 2021.Feb)

(ArcFox Hi FSD in Shanghai, but actually is from media, I don't know if this is non-marketing)

(Auto Park with Route memory, Cross the Floor, Kind of Reverse Summon but way more Powerful)

Some Random or Power User:

They may not have the latest version

XPeng NGP:

NIO NoP:
(Please be advised that it only got 2.5TOPS, while tesla 144)

LiXiang:

Infinity many of these

It's good to see so many companies trying to move autonomy forward there. Without Tesla, the US would be completely out of their league in terms of EV and consumer ADAS. I did watch through a few of the videos you selected (my Chinese is good enough to understand most of it). It's hard to say if there is a consistently superior ADAS. I think there's a strong desire to show when a Chinese-developed system does something better than Tesla.

I would keep in mind that Tesla's NoA reached what Musk likes to call a local maximum and they really haven't put any effort to improve that code base for a couple of years now, so comparisons to NoA wouldn't be terribly newsworthy.

I think the reason that the western world isn't really focused on all these Chinese ADAS systems is because none of them are significantly better. But time will tell. The fact that multiple manufacturers have production systems means competition should improve those systems quickly.