The Supercharger Announcement 10:30 PDT May 30

[deonb]

Unless you're swapping a pre charged Super Capacitor. And later the ability to charge it in place without a cable at certain locations

85kWh Super Capacitor would be bigger than the car with current (known) technology. Now again, if this is something new they discovered...

 

[kenliles]

85kWh Super Capacitor would be bigger than the car with current (known) technology. Now again, if this is something new they discovered...

That's a good point, and I agree it would have to be accompanied by a new density level discovery

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

So when Javier is saying "Charging times will decrease significantly"... what the hell is he talking about? The only way that you can foresee charge time decreasing significantly in the very near future, is if you already know how to do it today.

I think they've had a scientific discovery - this isn't just an engineering feat (well, I guess it can be something like a Liquid Nitrogen flush to make the internal battery wiring superconductive during charging... but I doubt that).

And the announcement is a demo - however, it doesn't necessarily mean that it is available immediately or even applicable to existing batteries. This could just be Elon's way of publishing research (fiercely patented of course).

I've seen Javier's quote a few times in this thread, but I have no clue what the context is. Who is Javier, and can someone link me his quote? lol.

As to major scientific discoveries, I'd bet against it, but I can't exclude it. One possibility that I've been helping to speculate on in other threads is to disconnect the battery (as you would in a swap), hook it up the coolant lines to a supercooled coolant source and then blast a bunch of energy into it.

Assuming that supercooling the cells could keep charging temperatures down and allow for faster charging times (a technical question I am incapable of answering), this would be a workable process, and its possible that the pack itself might have a heavy duty connector capable of higher charge rates. I don't see any process problems with implementing this. However, the economic expense if the electrical infrastructure at each SuperCharger is likely to be very high.

Again, expert commentary on the cost of electrical infrastructure, and possible grid improvements to support multiple charging bays, each with mid-hundreds of kWh charging capacity would be needed. And any plan needs to scale up to meet demand from millions of Tesla vehicles in the next decade. Swapping has the same power requirements, but it smooths the power requirements out because you are storing the energy for when its needed, and can charge slowly during down times.

The power grid might not be capable of flowing enough power to support MegaCharging for a Memorial Day weekend travel day. I doubt that Tesla thinks that melting powerlines is a good idea. If you need to either co-locate large power plants with the SuperChargers, or else have huge batteries to store the energy (which is essentially the system Elon described yesterday) then why not make modular batteries and just rapidly swap them into cars?

- - - Updated - - -

Battery swap would only make sense if a Model S purchase included a leased battery. The problem with battery swap is it's labor intensive. That is cost inefficient. Supercharging stations are unmanned and have a low operating cost.

If you think battery swapping is labor intensive, you are using the wrong model. Battery swapping will be entirely automated, and cost efficient.

Battery swapping might make sense with battery leases, but I don't think folks in the U.S. would want to be stuck with the problem that Better Place customers are experiencing with the potential seizure of their batteries (thus rendering their car useless) because of the failure of Better Place. Regardless, Elon has specifically described how this would work. Users would swap their battery, and it would be stored (and likely be used for ongoing rate arbitrage) until they return.

Leasing substantially simplifies the swapping logistics, and reduces the need for battery inventories. But as I have stated before, large inventories are a feature of this system, not a bug. There likely will not be leasing, though I can't exclude it, because it really does simplify life.

- - - Updated - - -

The other problem with Li-ion battery swapping is the SuperCharger placement. SuperChargers are placed in other people's parking lots. To the parking lot owner this is a great deal - you get some of your parking stalls upgraded to draw in a bunch of rich folks from out of town who will be hanging around bored for 30 mins and probably going to wander into your business as a result. You lose some parking bays for general use, but ultimately you create a huge drawing point for your businesses.

A battery swapper does the exist opposite. Now you have to give up some parking bays for Tesla to install something the size of a car-wash, for people who are so rushed for time (need a 5 min battery swop over a 20 min charge), that they specifically WON'T go into your business. That's a much tougher sell.

Not only that, but there are now 24 SuperChargers installed or being installed. And at each of these locations you would have already had to plan for installing the battery swapper. So those owners will know about it. Have you ever tried to keep a secret amongst 24 people? Nevermind 24 distinct 3rd party groups? It can't be done. (e.g. The Burlington, WA SC location was discovered by just walking up to some local people and chatting to them.)

I don't want to engage on the Aluminum Air concept except to point out that not using robotics means you dramatically increase costs and the chance of damaging the car or battery.

As to the rest, the portion I quoted is a very good point. I've wondered about the general unsuitability of rest stops for the kind of battery swapping stations that I have been envisioning. If I had tried to make a "prediction" based on my hypothesis prior to Elon's announcement, I would have predicted that my model was explaining why the SuperCharger rollout had seemingly stopped (or slowed) with no new stations in awhile. The reason being that Tesla had made the decision to go with swapping, which would mean moving out of rest stops, and they didn't want to keep investing in new locations which would be unsuitable.

Now there are reports of SuperChargers going up on top of parking structures. The idea that you can build a swap station at a location like that is ridiculous. The further re-emphasis by Elon on the rest stop strategy, and the credible explanation for why it was going slowly before (people thought Tesla was a joke) is a real problem for what I was expecting them to do. The basic battery storage requirements he discussed in yesterday's announcement only requires a shed. A SuperSwapper requires a facility much like a gas station, and preferably one with room to expand.

This disconnect is the biggest reason that I see to doubt that Tesla is attempting to do anything but very superficial swapping, like a plan they spoke of a few times to just swap small batteries (40kWh) for big ones at service centers so folks could take a road trip using SuperChargers.

The problem with that include the fact that it doesn't fit Elon's tweet (about fast "recharges"), and the 40kWh battery has been canceled. There is a marginal difference between the ability of the 60kWh and 85kWh cars being able to take roadtrips, and Tesla is trying to incentivize 60kWh customers to pay for the SuperCharging upgrade.

So a superficial swapping system to rent larger batteries doesn't fit. Maybe Tesla could offer a swap battery containing 3400mAh cells instead of the standard 3100mAh cells, but that would only add an extra 15-20 miles of range at best, and would slow down how long it takes to get a full charge even more.

So yes, I'll admit that the continued push for rest stop locations seems like a major problem. To be clear, in my discussions here I am defending the meta-concept of swapping, its economics and how it should be desirable to Tesla, and the problems with SuperCharging that reinforce the point. But only Tesla knows what their actual plan is, so the mystery announcement is still a mystery as far as I can tell. Some kind of swapping is going to happen. The specifics are unknown though.

- - - Updated - - -

You also decrease the need for charging, i.e. you only need to charge half as often with a 500 mile battery as with a 250 mile battery. There are few people who even take such a trip and even fewer who would not stop for an extended time after 400-500 miles of driving.

For those of you who keep insisting that faster charge rates simply aren't possible with any battery technology you need to become aware of the fact that sub 10 minute charge times have already been demonstrated by Aeronvironment and Altairnano. Toshiba Scib and A123 should also be capable of similar times. Finally, don't fixate on the "5 min" charge time as being the mark, It's quite possible that they consider an average gas station stop to be around 10 minutes or so.

Tesla may indeed go with swapping but it's not a forgone conclusion at this point.

Its true that you only need to stop after 500 miles instead of after 250, but the charging time is the same regardless. If it takes an hour to give you 250 miles of range, you will need to stop once with a large battery and twice with a small one, but the charging time of 2 hours for 500 miles is the same. The real advantage is that your destination is more likely to be in range with a large battery meaning you don't have to stop at all.

Another big issue, is that if a 500 mile battery costs $20,000, a 250 mile battery is going to cost $10,000. Similarly, if a 500 mile battery weighs 800lbs (just counting the cells, ignore the enclosure), then a 250 mile battery is going to weigh 400lbs (the weight calculation is complicated by the fact that half as many cells might not be able to output sufficient power, regardless of their storage capacity). The point being there are real costs, both economic and physical, with installing a larger battery, regardless of the future tech chemistry you choose.

 

[jeff_adams]

So yes, I'll admit that the continued push for rest stop locations seems like a major problem. To be clear, in my discussions here I am defending the meta-concept of swapping, its economics and how it should be desirable to Tesla, and the problems with SuperCharging that reinforce the point. But only Tesla knows what their actual plan is, so the mystery announcement is still a mystery as far as I can tell. Some kind of swapping is going to happen. The specifics are unknown though.

I'm struggling with the semantics. They have consistently used the term "recharge". I just don't don't make the connection that recharge = swapping.

I feel like we're in the Christopher Nolan movie "The Prestige" (which had Tesla in it).

Elon is going to revel a mystery on June 20th. He's dropped lots of hints, but keeps it coy. He's going to show a "recharge" trick. It's right under our noses. It's a simple solution used in an unconventional way. It's a hell of a magic trick....

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

He's going to show a "recharge" trick. It's right under our noses. It's a simple solution used in an unconventional way. It's a hell of a magic trick....

I like where you're going with this.

 

[deonb]

I've seen Javier's quote a few times in this thread, but I have no clue what the context is. Who is Javier, and can someone link me his quote? lol.

Javier Verdura is the director of Product Design & Project Management at Tesla.

Here is the original source:
http://www.core77.com/blog/announce...with_javier_verdura_of_tesla_motors_24947.asp

- - - Updated - - -

It's a simple solution used in an unconventional way.

Ooo. Ooo... I remember that one.

I don't remember the source though. Could you perhaps site the source so I can add it to my aggregate list of clues on:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/17416-June-20th-Speculation/page4?p=353044#post353044