The beneficiaries are the buyers of very old luxury cars. 2013 models of luxury ICE cars should start to hit the affordable range much sooner than the 2003 models of luxury ICE cars did in relation to age of car, maybe around 2023 rather than 2028. Then again, when that vehicle has decided to give up on everything in about 5 years, the 2019 models of luxury ICE cars may be affordable maybe around 2027 rather than 2029. Then finally in another five years, by around 2032, the 2015 electric vehicles will start to become affordable, and the customer will have the pick of getting electric vehicles for the first time if affordability is the question. If, as Elon has predicted, that all following electric vehicles after AP2 came out will become unaffordable, then there will be a marketplace for less expensive cars from other manufacturers, such as the Mercedes EQS and Audi e-Tron, provided that they are very old, such as 2020 models in the year 2036 or 2040.
The only thing that would interrupt this trend is if electric vehicles were made mandatory before they were affordable. The revolt would cause everything to go backwards. Brands like Tesla would become the very symbol of corruption and disgust. Their plastic interiors would be considered barf bags, since most of them would be used in taxi service and stink like hell and be the roughest ride of any available. It's ironic that this might happen in 2040 when the accusation that they are already that started back in 2012.
Thus, the great question becomes what will the other manufacturers do? If they make electric vehicles, the revolt won't happen, the early EV entrants will devalue quicker than the mature ones, and everything will be good as everything normalizes and the full price ranges are available. Right now, we are on the cusp of the other manufacturers making EVs in almost the numbers necessary for this outcome, but not quite. The tendency of people not to put up with polluting cars might push a little too fast on the pocketbook of people that are not part of the King's Court, so I think it really boils down to whether we are more of a monarch or more of a free market society when that rolls around as to what the outcome will be. If you look at the trends, it is going more towards monarchy, such as in California where the will of the people is constantly being replaced by bad central government management, and free market and property rights are being completely eliminated, with the government and oversized corporations like Google and China buying all the land and zoning laws that do not allow private property rights, turning the entire state into a state of slaves who do not own anything. We could experience political revolts before EV revolts, and it is a good question whether or not that will rebalance the EV marketplace before the ICEs are gone, circa 2050. I will be almost 80 years old, and I am one of the last generations that remember freedom, so if China hasn't killed us all already, we will tell the 60 year olds born in 1990 that are starting to recognize the problems with monarchy why they should go back to free markets, and they will tell the 50 year olds born in 2000 that never really experienced freedom what it might be like, and someplace in the world a new USA will be born. It might be a while before that affects the car markets, maybe by 2055 or so. If you have a 30 year investment outcome on your stocks, then if you start investing in 2020, you need to decide whether to pull out in 2045 or wait across the hump to 2065 or so, and the brands might not shake out the way you expect, depending on who is aligned with what monarchs at that point. Tesla could become a joke, or they might take the high road and make affordable cars that aren't noisy stinky bumpy barf bags, and become the new Mercedes. Or, Mercedes or some other brand could become the new VW or Tesla of that age.
