The Tesla / Mobileye story

[banned-66611]

AP2 hardware is vastly superior to the hardware found in AP1. The programming is what they are having to play catch up on.

That remains to be seen.

Personally I think AP2 underestimated the difficulty of the problem and will never work as intended. They will have to upgrade it to meet the spec they sold.

I'd say there is a 50/50 chance it reaches parity with AP1, e.g. recognising motorbikes and driving straight in a lane.

 

[Stoneymonster]

That remains to be seen.

Personally I think AP2 underestimated the difficulty of the problem and will never work as intended. They will have to upgrade it to meet the spec they sold.

I'd say there is a 50/50 chance it reaches parity with AP1, e.g. recognising motorbikes and driving straight in a lane.

I’ll take that bet. Especially since it already drives straight in a lane.

 

[NerdUno]

Especially since it already drives straight in a lane.

Correction: Tesla AP2 already drives straight in SOME lanes... unless it's in love with a nearby truck, or gets confused by sun, rain, sleet, snow, or modified and partially erased or non-existent lane lines or lane lines of the wrong color or lane lines on a draw bridge.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Correction: Tesla already drives straight in SOME lanes... unless it's in love with a nearby truck, or gets confused by rain, sleet, snow, or modified and partially erased or non-existent lane lines.

I have an AP1 and AP2 car in my garage. They perform within 2% of each other, one is not clearly better than the other right now. All of the complaints you made were and are made about AP1.

 

[NerdUno]

Reminder: What was promised and sold was "enhanced autopilot" a.k.a. EAP.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Reminder: What was promised and sold was "enhanced autopilot" a.k.a. EAP.

Right, I was simply responding to the assertion that AP2 will never match AP1.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Reminder: What was promised and sold was "enhanced autopilot" a.k.a. EAP.

I'm not tempted THAT easily!

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Right, I was simply responding to the assertion that AP2 will never match AP1.

Well, it doesn't show the mentioned motorcycles yet.

But personally I do believe it will eventually match AP1 and beyond.

 

[DragonRider]

It clearly sees and recognizes the motorcycles, for whatever reason Tesla has decided to show it as a car, maybe for licensing or patent reasons with MobileEye, just roll up on a motorbike on the freeway and you'll clearly see a car where the bike is.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

It clearly sees and recognizes the motorcycles, for whatever reason Tesla has decided to show it as a car, maybe for licensing or patent reasons with MobileEye, just roll up on a motorbike on the freeway and you'll clearly see a car where the bike is.

Does it, though?

Or does it think it sees a car?

 

[NerdUno]

Instead of motorcycles, I prefer the reindeer depictions in the Christmas HO HO HO implementation.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Does it, though?

Or does it think it sees a car?

As long as it doesn't hit it, I don't care if it shows a cupcake.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Instead of motorcycles, I prefer the reindeer depictions in the Christmas HO HO HO implementation.

Yeah, AP2 has parity with AP1 on reindeer identification.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

As long as it doesn't hit it, I don't care if it shows a cupcake.

But comparing identification parity was the point, not merely comparing seeing something. No?

 

[Stoneymonster]

But comparing identification parity was the point, not merely comparing seeing something. No?

I was mostly focusing on the performance aspect, not the display. But yes, it's absolutely correct that the display is not yet up to AP1.

 

[Reciprocity]

Well, it doesn't show the mentioned motorcycles yet.

But personally I do believe it will eventually match AP1 and beyond.

I think what you meant is that it sees the motorcycles but renders them as cars on the screen. It is false to say that AP2+ hardware does not see motorcycles and even cyclists, it just does not render them as such.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I think what you meant is that it sees the motorcycles but renders them as cars on the screen. It is false to say that AP2+ hardware does not see motorcycles and even cyclists, it just does not render them as such.

I do think the distinction matters at least to some extent. Does it internally know which are motorcycles? Because AP1 knows. Does AP2 just know "something" is there or does it know cars/motorcycles from each other but just doesn't display them yet? Or doesn't do it reliably? Or some other reason.

 

[renim]

I do think the distinction matters at least to some extent..

My reading of current state is that the interaction between car and pedestian / reindeer is a current limiting factor, and one of the reasons why robot vehicles currently enjoy 10x more minor accicdents than human directed vehicles. The interaction between on road vehicles is the easy bit. 2 way communication between cars and pedestians is more nuanced.

 

[renim]

Fwiw
2 presumptive disagreements re tesla/mobileye

Tesla wanted to know the secret sauce to mobileye so to optimise best.

Mobileye requires all oems to share on road data back to mobileye.

Either reason could become irreconcilable.

Finally, mobileye had more to lose than tesla from tesla autopilot fatalities.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Tesla was never an important customer for Mobileye. Even with Model 3, volumes were going to be low in comparison to all their other, much larger auto manufacturers. Soon after working with Mobileye, it became apparent that the two companies differed on strategy. Tesla saw that Mobileye wasn’t going to improve their offerings quickly enough for them, and even worse, when their offerings did finally improve, it would allow all Tesla competitors equal AP parity with Tesla.

So Tesla soon started a parallel effort to create their own AP chipset so that they could get V2 of AP out well before the rest of the industry had it. For their part, Mobileye saw someone who could directly compete against them, was being irresponsible with their chip, and just wasn’t worth anything to their bottom line. Tesla and Mobileye then had their demands of each other that neither side wanted to give. Raw video from Tesla, and access to raw data streams from Mobileye. So Mobileye cut them off. This caught Tesla completely by surprise and effectively forced Tesla to sell new cars with no working AP for quite a while.

That Tesla managed to shrug off this seemingly major problem is a testament to Elon’s agility and his BSing talents.