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The Tesla Semi Order Books Are Finally Open

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Three websites with varying details on this topic. None are actually totally accurate in their details about Tesla Semi after reading them that I could tell. Check them out for yourself and see what you think.



 
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Math here is pretty bad, unless I'm misunderstanding.

-Average annual mileage of a semi truck is 45,000 miles
-Average mpg of a semi truck is 6.5 mpg
-over two years, that's 90k miles, or roughly 13,800 gallons of diesel fuel for an ICE semi
-At an average of $5.50/gallon, that's ~$76k in fuel costs over two years.

Is the "$200,000+" in fuel savings over 10 years?

Even so, how do you reach a "two-year payback period?" It's not like an ICE semi needs $75k in maintenance and repairs in its first two years.
 
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Math here is pretty bad, unless I'm misunderstanding.

-Average annual mileage of a semi truck is 45,000 miles
-Average mpg of a semi truck is 6.5 mpg
-over two years, that's 90k miles, or roughly 13,800 gallons of diesel fuel for an ICE semi
-At an average of $5.50/gallon, that's ~$76k in fuel costs over two years.

Is the "$200,000+" in fuel savings over 10 years?

Even so, how do you reach a "two-year payback period?" It's not like an ICE semi needs $75k in maintenance and repairs in its first two years.
The payback period is probably referring to the purchase price delta between a diesel rig and the Tesla semi.
 
The payback period is probably referring to the purchase price delta between a diesel rig and the Tesla semi.
When Tesla announced the price of their semi, the pricing was on par with diesel trucks.
Diesel truck prices have skyrocketed in the past year and a half but there’s no firm price on the Tesla semi either.
That price is from 2017, there’s no way it’s still going to be sold for that amount.
 
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Math here is pretty bad, unless I'm misunderstanding.

-Average annual mileage of a semi truck is 45,000 miles
-Average mpg of a semi truck is 6.5 mpg
-over two years, that's 90k miles, or roughly 13,800 gallons of diesel fuel for an ICE semi
-At an average of $5.50/gallon, that's ~$76k in fuel costs over two years.

Is the "$200,000+" in fuel savings over 10 years?

Even so, how do you reach a "two-year payback period?" It's not like an ICE semi needs $75k in maintenance and repairs in its first two years.
I think/hope it means the Tesla Semi costs about $75K more than a standard diesel truck to buy, but over 2 years saves you about $75K in fuel costs, so that portion of the TCO is a wash after 2 years.
 
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Math here is pretty bad, unless I'm misunderstanding.

-Average annual mileage of a semi truck is 45,000 miles
-Average mpg of a semi truck is 6.5 mpg
-over two years, that's 90k miles, or roughly 13,800 gallons of diesel fuel for an ICE semi
-At an average of $5.50/gallon, that's ~$76k in fuel costs over two years.

Is the "$200,000+" in fuel savings over 10 years?

Even so, how do you reach a "two-year payback period?" It's not like an ICE semi needs $75k in maintenance and repairs in its first two years.

I own and sell trucks. Just passing along my experiences.

Average over the road mileage is about 120K annually for a sleeper semi.
Average mpg of a modern aero truck is about 8.2 mpg. My locally driven stop/ go off-road trucks average low 6s and about 55K miles annually.
Fuel is certainly a major expense, although currently this is a record high and I don't think it's wise to base your math on the second blip, in 15 years, in the middle of a war.
A modern diesel sleeper truck runs about $195K.
Payback is incredibly hard to calculate at this moment because we don't know enough. I don't know what the cost for charging will be, I can't calculate downtime for charging with driver wages etc, I've been told that the EV trucks weigh about 7K#s more which is about a 14% loss in actual payload capacity (a standard freight semi typically can haul about 50K#s payload) and is not just 14% less revenue (margins in trucking are about 5%) but you would not even be able to haul most loads, etc. For example my entire margin of profit on my trucks is the final 2-3 tons of payload, all the rest is just to cover operating expenses which is why legal payload capacity is so critical for profitability. Would be great for hauling mattresses and TP though, loads that are well below legal weight.

From a service standpoint, modern trucks are pretty reliable and can be fully warrantied for 5 years for about $14K. Still they have real downtime and service bills related to service, especially as they age. Theoretically EVs should require less of this, but I never trust new technology when it comes to trucking. IME, new stuff always fails a LOT in the first few years in this application.

The price for the Semi seems absurdly low honestly. The prices for EV's from other manufacturers have been shared with me and they are approaching 2x the prices shown for the Tesla Semi, frankly with much less range. What's the math on the cost for the battery pack alone, before you even add in a heavy duty chassis made to last 1-2 million miles?

My honest opinion is that CNG is the future of heavy duty trucking. I'm aware of the products that are coming out in 2027 and they look really good.
 
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I own and sell trucks. Just passing along my experiences.

Average over the road mileage is about 120K annually for a sleeper semi.
Average mpg of a modern aero truck is about 8.2 mpg. My locally driven stop/ go off-road trucks average low 6s and about 55K miles annually.
Fuel is certainly a major expense, although currently this is a record high and I don't think it's wise to base your math on the second blip, in 15 years, in the middle of a war.
A modern diesel sleeper truck runs about $195K.
Payback is incredibly hard to calculate at this moment because we don't know enough. I don't know what the cost for charging will be, I can't calculate downtime for charging with driver wages etc, I've been told that the EV trucks weigh about 7K#s more which is about a 14% loss in actual payload capacity (a standard freight semi typically can haul about 50K#s payload) and is not just 14% less revenue (margins in trucking are about 5%) but you would not even be able to haul most loads, etc. For example my entire margin of profit on my trucks is the final 2-3 tons of payload, all the rest is just to cover operating expenses which is why legal payload capacity is so critical for profitability. Would be great for hauling mattresses and TP though, loads that are well below legal weight.

From a service standpoint, modern trucks are pretty reliable and can be fully warrantied for 5 years for about $14K. Still they have real downtime and service bills related to service, especially as they age. Theoretically EVs should require less of this, but I never trust new technology when it comes to trucking. IME, new stuff always fails a LOT in the first few years in this application.

The price for the Semi seems absurdly low honestly. The prices for EV's from other manufacturers have been shared with me and they are approaching 2x the prices shown for the Tesla Semi, frankly with much less range. What's the math on the cost for the battery pack alone, before you even add in a heavy duty chassis made to last 1-2 million miles?

My honest opinion is that CNG is the future of heavy duty trucking. I'm aware of the products that are coming out in 2027 and they look really good.
We don’t know the price, Tesla says it’s expected to be 180k for the long range model but after 5 years worth of inflation I doubt the truck will cost 180k.
This truck simply wouldn’t work for long haul operations, it’s a regional/local truck. It’s a perfect fit for Walmart or any other company with short hauls as their main use
 
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View attachment 803719


Math here is pretty bad, unless I'm misunderstanding.

-Average annual mileage of a semi truck is 45,000 miles
-Average mpg of a semi truck is 6.5 mpg
-over two years, that's 90k miles, or roughly 13,800 gallons of diesel fuel for an ICE semi
-At an average of $5.50/gallon, that's ~$76k in fuel costs over two years.

Is the "$200,000+" in fuel savings over 10 years?

Even so, how do you reach a "two-year payback period?" It's not like an ICE semi needs $75k in maintenance and repairs in its first two years.
The weekly miles for a driver is 1500-2500 if you average that to 2000 miles a week X 48 weeks a year accounting for vacation thats 96,000 miles per year,
 
I agree that the performance envelope of an EV semi is better suited to regional haul, the thing is that I assume that's a sleeper berth shown in all the photos. They likely had to extend the truck considerably to physically fit the battery packs.
 
I agree that the performance envelope of an EV semi is better suited to regional haul, the thing is that I assume that's a sleeper berth shown in all the photos. They likely had to extend the truck considerably to physically fit the battery packs.
It is not a sleeper cab. Tesla is only making day cabs at this point, and this slide from a recent presentation they did shows the market they are going after:

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The <250 mile routes, and they show that their day cab Semi has a target range of 300 miles for their "standard range" variant to be able to handle those routes.
 
I have a reservation I made in 2017 when the Semi was announced. I never wired in the $5k deposit, but the reservation still appears to be alive. What are the chances I could send in the $5k and the reservation will keep my spot in line from 2017?