The Truth About FSD?

[M109Rider]

I have to say I have a lot of sympathy for the regulators. Musk is clearly seeing every establishment as inept and likes to play games whether the stock market, the regulators, the banks, everyone.. he seems to feel he's invincible and can do what he pleases, even his job title change this week seems to be taking the preverbial.

He's also enjoying the cult status of getting people to blame regulators for holding things back as if they would be much further forward if it wasn't for them. The UK owners group often suggest lobbying MPs about the limitations we've placed on autopilot, but when you look at them they're barely anything - summon across a carpark, tight bends at speed and needing to tap the indicator to acknowledge a lane change. If only they were the only things wrong with FSD at the moment.

There's a known issue that the greater the capability of the system, the more reliant and casual people may come when using it. I think it was Clarkson who said you could reduce accidents by removing seatbelts and sticking a big spike on the steering wheel (or something along those lines). The argument that you may have driven a thousand miles and not needed to do anything is great, but unless youre ready for that moment when you're needed you're at risk of a serious brown trouser moment 10 or so times a year. So how do you keep people attention on the system. A disclaimer isn't going to do that, the world has become immune to such things after somebody sued McDonalds because the coffee they bought contained a hot liquid which resulted in everything being covered with warning labels.

So you mix it all up and he's rolling out software to people that's not finished, may not even be a great drivers aid, those drivers will be the ones blamed if it goes wrong and they lose concentration through boredom or more likely feel checking their emails is worth the risk because the system is "reliable" and the nags are gone of you just hang a heavy arm on one side of the wheel, or a weight as some have done

I don't even get the "next version is camera only". It said to suggest its better and its all thats needed. Do we believe that a pair of fixed cameras in the centre of the windscreen is all that's needed to road the road ahead? I often need to lean my head to one side to get a better look past the car in front or reposition the car on the road to get a better view, whereas driving on the continent can be a nightmare for vision at times.

Give it time and the potential is there for it to offer massive benefits (so I get the vision) but over the last year, the "miles driven between accidents" ratio of active AP to passive/safety systems only AP has already been shrinking (was 1:2.4 down to 1:1.7) with the miles between accidents in Q4 2020 only marginally better than the stats from 2018 when they first published them.

I don't know what the answer is, others use cameras on drivers to watch eye movement, a regular confirmation when a message is displayed at random, both of which will be taken as an afront to many owners. There's a guy on another forum who just doesn't get it, he said the thing he hates about not using autopilot is that he need to stare at the road the whole time and prefers to look away and relax his eyes at times.. well right now, you still have to look with these systems engaged.

I see both sides to this, however Elon has, and continues to single handedly force change in an industry that refused to change at the detriment of the environment, and the consumers.

With any change like this, you have a multitude of opposition, and challenges.
My hope is that people work with him amd support him through this. That includes the consumers, and this is currently happening with the beta testers.

The problem will arise, when one of the Tesla haters on this forum, or an owner that belongs to an opposing industry gets hold of this Beta ...
They have a blind personal or financial interest in illustrating the very worst they can, because they don’t want Tesla to succeed.
This type of beta user is right around the corner.

I’m picky about the charities, or causes I support. I truly dig into the core of the cause or charity to ensure it’s legit.
I know Elon isn’t perfect, but I believe his core focus is totally different from most in his position.
It really saddens me to see that someone like this finally comes along, and so many folks try to take him down.

If he succeeds, many will see the benefits, and there will hopefully be more like him to follow. If he’s taken down, we all lose.

 

[Yev000]

That is 100% not what I am saying

I am saying they need to define a sensible and safe approach to development and testing not chuck stuff into the public domain and use enthusiastic armatures to find the flaws and only ban a few who seem to take liberties after the event. be more honest about the risks and their real performance if they are expecting the public to do their debugging to try and head off some of the misconceptions that its better than it is based on a few hand selected YouTube videos (I think we have a right to know the real performance if we're the ones testing it). be prepared to implement things to increase the safety during the transition rather than hide behind a disclaimer (cameras in cars are used by other makes to monitor the drivers attention for instance, my wifes car starts to nag if you look away from straight ahead after 3 seconds, not wait 3 months and hand pick a few who are abusing it, yet we've no terms of engagement and what constitutes proper use etc), maybe even mandate a online training programme for owners before allowed access to the latest code accepting that not all drivers can be proven to have had the training, it would still be a start, and engage constructively with the regulators to understand what's needed to actually reach the goal.

Doing the above would take the gloss of it maybe, and Musk wouldn't be seen as quite the cool maverick he likes to be, but I think ultimately he's either going to risk reputational issues if there are more accidents like the police car one yesterday through carelessness by the driver using the software which will end up undermining the benefits. and/or never get it legally approved which leaves it in limbo land.

Ok, thanks for clarifying. I personally don't know how much of that already goes on behind closed doors. Would it be fair to say that most of your consern stems from how Musk behaves rather than the company? They appear to be following regulations and are very strict regarding who gets to keep FSD beta.

 

[Yev000]

I see both sides to this, however Elon has, and continues to single handedly force change in an industry that refused to change at the detriment of the environment, and the consumers.

With any change like this, you have a multitude of opposition, and challenges.
My hope is that people work with him amd support him through this. That includes the consumers, and this is currently happening with the beta testers.

The problem will arise, when one of the Tesla haters on this forum, or an owner that belongs to an opposing industry gets hold of this Beta ...
They have a blind personal or financial interest in illustrating the very worst they can, because they don’t want Tesla to succeed.
This type of beta user is right around the corner.

I’m picky about the charities, or causes I support. I truly dig into the core of the cause or charity to ensure it’s legit.
I know Elon isn’t perfect, but I believe his core focus is totally different from most in his position.
It really saddens me to see that someone like this finally comes along, and so many folks try to take him down.

If he succeeds, many will see the benefits, and there will hopefully be more like him to follow. If he’s taken down, we all lose.

Agree. Today's "first world" society is obsessed with opinions and safety. Meanwhile China doesent care and silently gets all the advantages.

 

[DrJFoster]

I find it disappointing that prefacing a post with "I see both sides of this" is used to suggest being even handed when it appears from the rest post not to be or using "first world" society is used as a derogatory term

The thread is about developing full self driving capability. Nobody on this thread has disputed the benefits of that, and it is not a "first to achieve wins" race either. There will almost certainly be multiple self driving systems on the road in 10 maybe 20 years from multiple manufacturers. And even when cars can self drive, they will coexist with cars and drivers who through lack of skill or idiocy will crash into you. The benefits Musk is after are long term. In my career I have seen the results or car accidents and the changes in car safety over time have resulted in numbers are falling, it does however vary enormously from country to country and no FSD is going to tackle the worst countries because poverty, poor road conditions, lower education and even religious beliefs in fate dictate the physical and cultural aspect of road safety in those areas.

The simple request for Tesla is to be careful with the roll out and truthful about the real state of progress. Joshua Browns decapitation was on the Mobileye system which is 2 generations behind where they (mobileye) are now, and accelerated the parting of the ways between the two companies. Did the parting of the ways accelerate the development of new systems? No. Was progress curtailed because Tesla had to change their nag system so something which actually did something when a driver abused the system? No to that too.

I'm struggling to see why concerns about the actual progress and safety of Tesla's system will actually slows down the progress. Tesla is not listening to those people and there seems to be an endless supply of people prepared to sit behind the wheel. It is not a case that if enough people wish it would fail, it will. That's absurd, just as enough people wishing it to work will not cause it to work better. China aren't ahead on FSD because they don't care about peoples safety, if they were ahead its because there technology choices are different. And either way, it is not a race to the bottom.

Musk is a complex character, visionary and has changed the game. but by his own words his plans have overly ambitious timescales. He's also under increasing pressure, probably put on it by himself, to deliver FSD, although he's yet to say what "feature complete" means in terms of a list of technical features, I've never seen him use industry terms like the SAE levels or terms like minds off driving, so he's pitching for an ambition which has sufficient ambiguity that we will all draw what we want from whether its success or not. I can guarantee even if he delivered a fantastic autonomous car that could drive coast to coast and park itself in a public car park there will still be people who say its failed because they were expecting robotaxi, and at the other end of spectrum if he delivers a Level 2 car that the driver can just sit with effectively just a dead mans handle (railway term if you are not familiar) some will claim it as success and full vindication of his activities.

 

[CyberGus]

...So sanctioning a self driving capability that may be 2, 3, 4 times better than the average driver still results in massive global death toll.

Autonomous driving has risks, but the biggest risk is doing nothing. There are over 1.3 million deaths annually to traffic accidents worldwide. That's about 3,600 deaths every single day. A system that is 2x better than an average driver sounds glorious.

The American poet and philosopher George Carlin said: "Imagine the intelligence of the average person, and then realize that half the people are stupider than that."

 

[Yev000]

I find it disappointing that prefacing a post with "I see both sides of this" is used to suggest being even handed when it appears from the rest post not to be or using "first world" society is used as a derogatory term

I'm sorry I dissapointed you? Are you my father or something?

The thread is about developing full self driving capability. Nobody on this thread has disputed the benefits of that, and it is not a "first to achieve wins" race either.

I belive the first mover advantage will be significant - something along the lines of 60-80% of the market. So depends on your definition of "first to achieve wins".

The simple request for Tesla is to be careful with the roll out and truthful about the real state of progress.

You do not belive this to be the case? I personally see them being a lot more transparent than other encumbants.

I'm struggling to see why concerns about the actual progress and safety of Tesla's system will actually slows down the progress.

Simple comparison between current US and UK AP capability to show you, case and point, why so called safety conserns and regulations would slow down progress.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Autonomous driving has risks, but the biggest risk is doing nothing. There are over 1.3 million deaths annually to traffic accidents worldwide. That's about 3,600 deaths every single day. A system that is 2x better than an average driver sounds glorious.

The American poet and philosopher George Carlin said: "Imagine the intelligence of the average person, and then realize that half the people are stupider than that."

Who's talking about doing nothing? Have you not read what's being written?

A system thats 2x better than human isn't going to be approved whether you like it or not for reasons stated, not least of which is ignoring the regulators who need to approve it.

 

[Peteski]

I find it funny when people talk about FSD being multiple times safer than the average human driver when they can’t even currently achieve anything close to the capability of a reasonable human driver. There’s a very good reason why FSD still needs an active human hovering continually over the wheel. That is not going to change any time soon.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

I find it funny when people talk about FSD being multiple times safer than the average human driver when they can’t even currently achieve anything close to the capability of a reasonable human driver. There’s a very good reason why FSD still needs an active human hovering continually over the wheel. That is not going to change any time soon.

Absolutely although these things will improve in time (not that we have a true definition of FSD in Teslas world)

But I'd also bet that the majority of people think they're better than the average driver (I know I do ) so how much safer than "average" would it need to be for me to trust FSD to take full responsibility more than my own driving? "Average" is a pretty low bar. Twice that of a highly trained driver (ideally police pursuit driver so I'm not bored with it doing the computer equivalent of shuffling the steering wheel in its hands) and maybe we're onto something.

 

[Peteski]

Absolutely although these things will improve in time (not that we have a true definition of FSD in Teslas world)

But I'd also bet that the majority of people think they're better than the average driver (I know I do ) so how much safer than "average" would it need to be for me to trust FSD to take full responsibility more than my own driving? "Average" is a pretty low bar. Twice that of a highly trained driver (ideally police pursuit driver so I'm not bored with it doing the computer equivalent of shuffling the steering wheel in its hands) and maybe we're onto something.

I agree it would have to be pretty much flawless for me to trust it without having any active control. I don’t think it’s just a case of being as safe as I am. It has to be significantly safer. Plus it also has to have reliable fail safe modes.

If I had any doubts I would rather just drive myself. There are also many times when I would still prefer to drive myself just for fun. Autonomous driving only interests me on long boring motorway journeys and in traffic jams. Tesla FSD is actually quite good in both of those scenarios apart from not being safe enough to remove human supervision. The hands on approach doesn’t really achieve the primary objective of a self driving car. At least not for me.

 

[Sparkeur]

FSD is a concept that is a long way off. Once I convinced myself that I invested (at the time) a one-off £5000 for 'driver assist' software that would be updated as and when without further charge, I found peace.

 

[CyberGus]

I'm sorry I disappointed you? Are you my father or something?

 

[2018 P3D+]

FSD Beta Rollout Canceled.

"Musk Cancels Tesla's Full Self Driving Update, Awaits Further Progress"​

Well, at least this time Musk actually says it is delayed. How long do the smoke and mirrors continue? It will never be more than Level 2 driver assistance and everyone knows it. Wondering when we will be able to apply for a refund on FSD?

 

[Tony Hoyle]

Cancelled is a bit of a stretch. He said basically that the new version was such a change it'll be a bit longer. Which anyone could have predicted.. when has Elon *ever* met a deadline?

I suspect it'll coincide with v11, which isn't far off by all accounts.

 

[Yev000]

when has Elon *ever* met a deadline?

Well, the 500k cars in 2020 was pretty spot on.

Crazy deadlines are a lot of the reason there is progress at all....

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

I've no problem with overly optimistic/stretch targets for medium and long term goals which challenge thinking and break people out of certain mentalities, but just like the tweet in 2017 where he said FSD would differ significantly from EAP within 3 months, 6 months definitely, its the sort of timescales you should know what's going on and what's realistic. Its what, 2 weeks since he announced the wider roll out? It's only a few months where he told everyone it would be here by now. Its 6 months since he said feature complete blah blah would be here by the end of the 2020 (a tweet he must have on autorepeat as it was for the 3rd year running).

It's these short term forecasts where there seems to be little checking or sense of reality to them or they're just total bull with nothing to substantiate them. Maybe he'll surprise us and it will be here just a week behind the latest forecast, but I can easily seeing this as not coming for another 3 months based on his past performance. Or maybe he just does these things to keep in the news and sate the appetite of us who then go on to discusses the subject. He's being milking FSD now for 4 years and its still just a level 2 system that will try and kill you at random

 

[roadcred]

Lets hope that FSD never comes about. The infrastructure likely to pertain in the US or Europe is not going to change radically in the next 50 years. In fact spending to maintain a drive-able surface on most roads is difficult enough. Look at so called smart motorways in the UK! What a shambles - infrastructure skimped and software and cameras just not up to it in all lights and weather! FSD stands for fanciful self driving or fools self driving.

 

[nxsynjs]

In terms of regulations, I would start small. Increasing the maximum allowable steering angle and having summon work on wifi rather than bluetooth would solve a lot of current frustrations with FSD for what I imagine would be a small decrease in the safety margins.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

In terms of regulations, I would start small. Increasing the maximum allowable steering angle and having summon work on wifi rather than bluetooth would solve a lot of current frustrations with FSD for what I imagine would be a small decrease in the safety margins.

You've reminded me of an article I read probably a year ago which I've managed to find. It also says start small, in its case focus just on motorways. Let the driver do the first and final mile. Level 4 I guess. Its the safest type of roads, traffic in the same direction, long spells between junctions, and while it might need to bail out due to the weather or equipment failure, it would be massively useful for many people travelling long distances so worthy to buy. Rather than Robotaxi its more like a Robotrain. When I commuted to London I used to drive 8 miles to a station, pay nearly £200 for a virgin train ticket, and then a tube or taxi to the office, with motorway FSD I'd be able to drive to the motorway, go 130 miles to near Heathrow on FSD and then drive the last 5 miles or so to the office. That would be compelling. Sure there are parking issues and heavier traffic but hopefully you get the idea.

If you crack that, then you can incrementally look at other road types, dual carriageways, trunk roads etc. Save the turn across lanes of traffic near a school until you've nailed the easier bits, which they are still yet to do.

Article is here but the summary is pretty much what I've written Tesla - the path to full self driving value

 

[MrBadger]

Increasing the maximum allowable steering angle

This is a misnomer. There is (as far as I am aware, at least, not for normal cornering) no limit on allowable steering angle. The limit is maximum allowable lateral G force which last time I looked was 0.3m/s2 and is currently under revision. It doesn't help that Tesla's implementation of trying to keep within the maximum lateral forces is poorly implemented making it easy to exceed and the car not behaving consistently - ie it gives up mid corner and tells you to take control. The FSD beta does a far better job of keeping the car within lane when cornering.