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The world after the Model 3

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Pluto, Oct 27, 2016.

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  1. Pluto

    Pluto Member

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    Does you think that the world will be different after the Model 3 is released or it won't be much different? There are a lot of things that set apart a Model S and any other car and I don't know when the last time I've heard of a car doing that. I feel like once the Model 3 arrives and Tesla becomes mainstream, it really will be a new hallmark of technology.

    Obviously Tesla is compared excessively to Apple, but the iPhone set the example of what a modern smartphone should be (and astonishingly 8 years later they're not much different). The cellphone market practically transformed into the smartphone market, and everyone including children rely excessively on mobile apps. I can't help but think about a future where autonomous driving becomes a second thought to everything else in a car, much like calling and texting became a second thought to everything else in a smartphone.

    That's not to mention that a car is more desirable when it's electric, and with the Model 3 EV's will become feasible for the mainstream (second to the Bolt). But an electric vehicle that leverages autonomy to make technology so accessible to its occupants? That's what I see as the true disruptor.
     
  2. shrspeedblade

    shrspeedblade Member

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    Cars have been around in more or less their current form for a lot longer than cellular phones have, at least in any sort of wide use, and are harder to produce so the change won't be as rapid. However, from an environmental and energy independence standpoint it's exciting to think about that in 20 years EVs might be the significant majority.

    If they can keep improving battery longevity (it's already better than a lot of the fear mongering would have you believe) and can make charging quicker and more easily accessible (probaby the biggest hurdle) you have a technology that is almost twice as efficient, simpler, cleaner, lower maintenance, FASTER in most applications (yeah!), and even allows for safer and roomier vehicle packaging. Truly the biggest hurdle to overcome is going to be the zealous opposition by the petroleum industry and automakers who refuse to adapt and in this country the politicians they've bought and paid for.
     
  3. Swampgator

    Swampgator Member

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    I agree, but the autonomy thing honestly makes me nervous. Not because of the tech (I think that is awesome) but because of the inevitable loss of freedom which governments will imposes upon us because of the "safety" of the new tech.
    I for one love to drive, and my M3 performance model is going to be purchased specifically for that purpose.
    I am a little worried that most people excited about the tech have not really thought through the logical progression after the tech arrives.
    Why for instance, do you think the government regulators seem so on board with autonomous driving?

    John
     
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  4. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    This is a good bit of insight as to what things will be like... SOON.

     
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  5. strykeroz

    strykeroz Member

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    I expect the change will be swift, in the order of years not decades as some of our politicians would like to believe.

    If Tesla ships half a million M3 units in 2018, executes well and therefore continues to maintain demand M3 will be twice as visible on the roads as the Nissan Leaf (all year models, 200k units to end 2015) and a top 15 seller worldwide based on 2015 unit sales. At that point it will be hard to dismiss, and you'd think must drag the final laggards in the auto industry in that direction.

    Continuing with the same analogy Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, Motorola and Blackberry were all big deals when the iPhone was launched. I'd think new EV companies to emerge to be the strongest competitors for the future Tesla.

    I also expect vehicle automation where it drives commercial outcomes will probably lead widespread automation on the roads but Tesla will be the household name people know.
     
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  6. Chuq

    Chuq Active Member

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    I expect the change in new sales will be quick, but the effect on the entire vehicle fleet will be slower (since people replace their mobile phones every 1-4 years, but only replace their car every 5-20 years)
     
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  7. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    Living in Los Angeles, certain cars are far more visible here than they are elsewhere, I'm sure. The Prius is literally EVERYWHERE. You probably cannot complete a commute over 10 miles without seeing a LEAF. I can see a 500e or i3 just about every day, and even the i8 seems to be showing up more often. So, I would not at all be surprised to see the Model ☰ appear to be almost as popular as the Camry here within the next two years. Today, the Model S can be seen on the freeway more often than an XJ, S-Class, or 7-Series around here.
     
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  8. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    #8 Discoducky, Oct 27, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2016
    Once you can build a 3 without much delay, the world will be different for car buyers.... materially different
     
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  9. shrspeedblade

    shrspeedblade Member

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    I'm 100% in agreement with you, but I take heart in the fact that you still see people motoring down the road in their Model T (at least here in the Napa Valley) so I suspect if I take care of it my track prepped but street legal Miata will be around as long as I am. People still ride horses for fun, too, just not normally for transportation. The only difference will be we won't have to do any more of the mundane driving unless we want to.
     
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  10. Pluto

    Pluto Member

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    If anything, it may just be more expensive to use a manually driving car in some future time because it'll require insurance whereas autonomous cars won't (like 10-20 years from now).
     
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  11. WileyTheMan

    WileyTheMan Member

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    Assuming the Model 3 launch goes as Elon hopes, it will be a significant milestone in the auto industry, but by itself will have little actual impact on the world as a whole. Maybe we will look back in the annals of the car industry 40 years from now, point at Tesla's accomplishments and say "that company helped force the petrol-focused car industry into the direction we are today."
     
  12. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    This is the definition of optimism.

    Reality check: Autonomous cars might have cheaper insurance, but zero insurance will not be seen in my lifetime.
     
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  13. habanero69

    habanero69 I Dont Need Cialis. I Drive an EV.

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    The argument will be WHO is liable? :oops: The car manufacturer or you the owner of the car that went a muck? That I think will be one of the true regulatory hurdles we might not see resolved for a long time, perhaps later than Tesla full autonomous wants to be deployed. Think lawyer speak. (sorry, no offense to any lawyers on this board)...;)
     
  14. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Say you're driving along and your car splits in half and kills 7 people. Are you liable? Is the manufacturer? Is the supplier of the parts that broke? It depends and will require case-by-case investigation.

    I expect "autonomous drama" will have a similar discovery, analysis, and liability determination process.
     
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  15. Frank Schwab

    Frank Schwab Member

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    I think the Model 3 will be seen as the point where EV's became the norm.

    The Prius is the beginning of the curve; there's a crapload of them on them on the road, and they're the first step on the road to EV's. The Model S is a required step; but it's an EV for the well-heeled. It's not a common vehicle. The M3 will be the pivot point that converts middle America (and middle Italy, and middle China, etc) from oil-only to battery-only vehicles. The Bolt will technically be the first, but it'll be so low volume that it'll be immaterial. 8 years from now, the Model 3 will be the archetype of the normal car. 20 years from now, it'll be a step below the Model T for it's impact on people, on a par with the Ford Mustang for changing the meaning of "car".
     
  16. lklundin

    lklundin Member

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    #16 lklundin, Oct 29, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2016
    Thinking of how the BEV will replace the ICE makes me think of how the sentiment towards smoking has changed, i.e. from universally accepted or even desired to frowned upon and prohibited in many places.

    Considering the long list of environmental risks the ICE incurs, I expect that once the ICE becomes sufficiently rare it will simply lose its regulatory status as street legal and be relegated to museums and non-public enthusiast driving (at great expense, once all gas stations are gone).

    I expect diesel to go first and without much fanfare (one sign is that the days of Audi sending TDI to Le Mans are now gone).

    I expect to live long enough to see both the ICE and the terribly dangerous humanly operated vehicle to lose its regulatory support, but I am unsure which one will go first. What do you think?

    Here are a few ICE risks that comes to mind (feel free to add more):
    Toxicity of gasoline along all of its long supply chain, most noticeable for the end consumer as carcinogenic fumes during fueling, but also significant as soil contamination
    CO2 pollution, not only in its consumption but also in its production, it takes about 1kWh electricity to just refine 1 gallon of gasoline (but yielding other useful biproducts), add then its transportation.
    The negative effect of ICE noise on the blood pressure of especially city dwellers
    The negative effect of NOx pollutants on airways of especially city dwellers

    "Granddad, tell me about the bad old days, when our country went to war just to get oil to make the cars run. And it is really true that back then a person was allowed to drive a car?"
     
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  17. Richk

    Richk Member

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    Very interesting, thanks for sharing. It seems pretty optimistic, what with autonomy regulations, PV/battery installation costs, etc., but if it's 10 or 15 years instead of 5, it's still amazing.

    Personally, I'd need a new house and a a different power company to be a near term adopter. His example of non-PV home energy storage (to store cheaper nighttime utility energy and use it during the day) stated a 10x cost delta between daytime and nighttime electricity in AZ. Here in MD, Pepco's deal is so bad that there's no benefit for me- I'm stuck with their expensive flat rate. Energy storage will be great when I eventually get PV on my south-facing roof- I just wish my Cape Cod roof had room for more than a handful of panels.

    So I won't be a great example, but the trend is still exciting.
     
  18. lklundin

    lklundin Member

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    Why does the free market not give you a choice of electricity provider?
     
  19. Richk

    Richk Member

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    Yes, we have competing electricity providers, but after doing the research, they weren't really much better of a deal (savings of $10-$15/month) and many of them are not very reputable-- they have lots of BBB complaints. I figured better the devil I know.

    Update: That research was almost a year ago and the prices haven't changed since then, so still not a very good deal.
     
  20. lklundin

    lklundin Member

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    Well, if it is any consolation, there is plenty of choice here and a low barrier to change, still I pay 0.23€/kWh, fixed for 1 year. This is deemed cheep...
     

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