Tesla already has a big communication issue regarding autopilot 1.0. Assuming 2.0 is a big leap forward, can you imagine the communication nightmare and liability when they start showing off autopilot 2.0 that can do point-to-point full route driving including city streets with stop lights and stop signs? What are the odds that someone (who likely doesn't frequent these forums) gets into one of the existing 100k-200k autopilot 1.0 cars, mistakenly assumes their car will stop for a red light, and plows right into a bunch of children crossing the street? It's highly unlikely Tesla will refresh the exterior of the Model S/X again for at least 4 years so how will folks know or understand the difference between autopilot 1.0 and 2.0? Check the VIN and if > 150000 then it will stop at red lights but if < 150000 then it won't stop at red lights? For this reason, I'm gonna bet on retrofit not only being available for autopilot 1.0 cars but I predict it will actually be required in the sense that autopilot convenience features will be disabled after a certain date for all cars that don't have the new hardware. Just a guess of course.
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Planned obsolescence is the reality of all the other cars on the road.. Tesla has been the only manufacturer to actually offer upgrades for older vehicles and OTA updates that increases functionality (sometimes decreases). Just because AP 2.0 is out, It's not like AP 1.0 is no longer useful nor safe, just that newer cars have newer features.
New owners are in for a shock of how quickly Tesla releases new updates. Us "classic" owners don't even have parking sensors, folding mirrors, the '+' suspension, LTE, AP, Traffic aware cruise control, Auto emergency braking, lane keeping assist, sub zero package, "D" motors, Insane/Ludicrous modes, BioHazard, or NextGen seats.
RogerHScott
Active Member
I don't see lane holding autopilots stopping for lights or stop signs for this reason. There is always one hidden behind a branch or something.
Only way would be if it was implemented as a warning. Traffic light (sign), detected. Will stop in X feet. Countdown. Start to brake. If driver didn't see countdown then they are on their own.
RogerHScott
Active Member
At which point Tesla will have a choice of doing the upgrades for free or refunding people's $5k they paid for AP. You can't take
back (the value of) something someone's paid for just because it becomes inconvenient for you to support it.
Gizmotoy
Active Member
Tesla didn't make AP retrofitable into the 2013 Model S because of wiring harness differences that made the change cost prohibitive. It seems practically guaranteed AP 2.0 will require wiring harness differences. I find it hard to believe, then, that Tesla will permit or perform upgrades to 2.0 for 1.0 owners. Especially so if Tesla is footing the bill. That'd be a hefty bill.
I've had AP since day one that is was released. I've found it utterly predictable. If you're on open highway in reasonable conditions, it really never does anything unusual. And that's the intended use. Sure, on twisty two lane roads it's less reliable; so don't do that. It's no different than conventional cruise control; or radar assisted cruise. People need to learn when the technology works, and I'm confident that they will. I like to think that people if people are treated like adults, then they can act as such.
The one fatality that we're talking about shouldn't really even be counted. You had a truck cut across a highway in front of oncoming traffic, and a human driver would have had his hands full. If the driver did some of the things that they are reputed to have done (which we don't know for sure)... well, then it would fit it the same category as texting while driving or drunk driving - dangerous and already illegal.
Regular cruise control makes it possible, on a fairly clear road, to lean the seat back and stick your feet out the window. So if a deer jumps out of the ditch and you can't brake in time, is that the automaker's fault?
Oh, I'm not saying AP 2.0 hardware would be free. On the contrary, let end users pay a reasonable fee. That way Tesla can say:
If your car has AP 1.0, expect it to do this.
If your car has AP 2.0, expect it to do this.
I hear you, but i don't think that's what's happening in my case. I had a non-AP Model S and didn't feel Tesla owed me something. I bought a new one to get those things. I'm not just wishing i get something better soon, i'm looking at it from Tesla's point of view. As I said in my first post, it's not like the parking sensors... having different levels of AP hardware out there with different capabilities may be worse for Tesla than the cost of making sure retrofit were easy.
just answered the same question from another person. I'm not wanting something for free. I had a non-AP car and never felt tesla owed me AP. When I wanted it enough, i sold my car and bought a new car to get Autopilot and other things. I'll do the same next time when the hardware improves enough for me. I'm just wondering if Tesla may have to handle this particular feature progress path different because of the safety issues and the potential confusion by people over what their car can and can't do. This isn't a convenience feature, and people are ALREADY misunderstanding what AP is designed to do. With multiple levels of capabilities out there, it may well get worse.
Yes. Again, I'm definitely in the minority opinion here but my prediction is (assuming it's just the triple camera and maybe updated other sensors that are drop-in compatible) it will be a free retrofit. Remember that Tesla will have an economies of scale advantage if this is the same hardware going into Model 3.
rxlawdude
Active Member
There are a few intertwined issues to be resolved.
First, does the current version of Autopilot hardware/software do all the things advertised it would do? If not, and if indeed not capable of ever doing these things, there's an issue (and potential litigation).
Second, if NHTSA indeed requires Tesla to recall and disable AP 1.0, there's an issue (and potential litigation).
Third, if Tesla does not provide an upgrade path to those who purchased AP 1.0 with the expectations it met advertised functionality and not be disabled due to NHTSA, there's an issue.
There is no analogy between pre-AP vehicle upgrades to AP, and existing AP vehicles that potentially won't function as advertised/expected being upgraded to functionality that was advertised and that NHTSA finds acceptable. We're talking about advertised capabilities that enticed purchases of AP cars.
I predict that a new version of AP 1.0, as a result of the NHTSA and PR nightmares, will require full time hands on the wheel. That would address the driver attentiveness concerns that started this whole mess (thus the second issue), as well as preclude demands by 1.0 owners for upgraded hardware to AP 2.0 (thus the third issue). The first issue isn't addressed by this solution.
First, does the current version of Autopilot hardware/software do all the things advertised it would do? If not, and if indeed not capable of ever doing these things, there's an issue (and potential litigation).
Second, if NHTSA indeed requires Tesla to recall and disable AP 1.0, there's an issue (and potential litigation).
Third, if Tesla does not provide an upgrade path to those who purchased AP 1.0 with the expectations it met advertised functionality and not be disabled due to NHTSA, there's an issue.
There is no analogy between pre-AP vehicle upgrades to AP, and existing AP vehicles that potentially won't function as advertised/expected being upgraded to functionality that was advertised and that NHTSA finds acceptable. We're talking about advertised capabilities that enticed purchases of AP cars.
I predict that a new version of AP 1.0, as a result of the NHTSA and PR nightmares, will require full time hands on the wheel. That would address the driver attentiveness concerns that started this whole mess (thus the second issue), as well as preclude demands by 1.0 owners for upgraded hardware to AP 2.0 (thus the third issue). The first issue isn't addressed by this solution.
I don't think that it matters but nobody paid $5k for AP. They either paid $2,500 or $3,000.
My thoughts: I think you are nuts.
Do you expect Mercedes, Ford, GM, etc. to retro-fit their older cars as a new model year gets new/better features than the prior model year?
Take it a step further, say someone saw a video that showed a Model S driving itself. They have a Model S without Autopilot, do you really think that they will assume their car has the same feature and go let it drift off the road and wreck itself?
Depends if the new module will work with the same windshield and wiring. (It may take more room and need a different windshield, or may require more power and need heavier gauge wiring. Or maybe some kind of cooling setup.)
This is exactly why I see truly autonomous vehicles as being a long way off in the future. The corner cases will be unbelievable. And if you look at the furor that comes out of one very sad death, that was really caused by a dangerous turn made by a truck driver into oncoming traffic, then wait until you get the first deaths because the car missed a sign or a light. Tesla is going to look at the current situation and step very carefully.
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