I think the current dip has been a combination of several factors and figured it's worth laying them out to get some idea of where TSLA goes from here:
Lastly, i sense there was some frustration in the earnings call and the vagueness on future guidance might be because they want/need to get it right but I have a gut feel there is news to come on something and it's almost certainly something concrete on battery supply. Just my feeling and guesses....time will tell.
In the meantime, like most storms this one will blow over; the car doesn't need a redesign, it's a very heavy performance car that'll hit things with a force of >26tons if it's doing 80mph. The bad luck will fade away and Tesla will move on. A good annual result will turn round sentiment, profit takers will start looking at next year and TSLA will come back. Oh, and while the price is down....I'm buying!
- Tesla's Q3 earnings were really pretty good, but they were off guidance. Differences between actuals and guidance make analysts and financial advisors look like they're not in touch and there's nothing worse for them than to look stupid in front of clients. Stocks tend to get punished when companies don't meet guidance and IMO the old adage of "once bitten, twice shy" certainly holds true with analysts.
- Supply constraints are real. Li-Ion battery factories don't get built overnight and getting battery supply online with correct timing is going to take some special execution, never mind persuading somebody to put up the capex.
- This is the time of year for profit-taking. I talked to a few folks this morning and it seems like the annual clean-up of portfolios is already taking place.
- Something else that I had confirmed this morning is a recent rotation out of hot growth stocks. There is some nervousness about overheating in specific areas and TSLA has almost been too good to be true this year. I stated in other threads that I felt Tesla was currently overvalued in the $170-190 range given supply constraints.
- As many bulls chased Tesla upwards, so many bears chased it downwards. No criticism intended towards anyone here but, just as an example, quite a few folks here have been selling.
- Some of the hedgefunds and shorts have likely been punishing TSLA for the money they lost on the way up. They're looking to recoup some of that on the way down. When prices are moving there's always money to be made.
- EVs and fires. It's a myth but if enough people believe it, it becomes real. the latest one came at just the wrong moment. (Model S weighs in at 4,647lbs and it's worth noting that when that mass hits something at high speed, something spectacular is going to happen.)
- The constant good news wore off. This year Tesla/Elon had a string of "Wow!" announcements that seemed never ending. Well, quite simply they used up all their new ideas (for now!).
Lastly, i sense there was some frustration in the earnings call and the vagueness on future guidance might be because they want/need to get it right but I have a gut feel there is news to come on something and it's almost certainly something concrete on battery supply. Just my feeling and guesses....time will tell.
In the meantime, like most storms this one will blow over; the car doesn't need a redesign, it's a very heavy performance car that'll hit things with a force of >26tons if it's doing 80mph. The bad luck will fade away and Tesla will move on. A good annual result will turn round sentiment, profit takers will start looking at next year and TSLA will come back. Oh, and while the price is down....I'm buying!
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