There was never a plan

[dckiwi]

Please point to another company that has done better and achieved more than Tesla.

So much these days is utter hogwash. Highly-scripted and just empty marketing with little to no substance. Tesla and SpaceX are the completely opposite.

I completely agree. Their vehicles are incredible. And I think FSD Beta is very very real and frankly amazing. If you re-read my original post it was pondering why they make hard things look easy and easy things look hard.

 

[ahoen117]

This is not a rant or complaint about the way Tesla has handled the FSD rollout - there are plenty of threads on that topic.

What I find fascinating is that, despite the fact that Tesla has been working on FSD since AP 2.0 was released exactly 5 years ago, it is clear that no one gave any serious thought to how they might gradually roll out significant new FSD capabilities to customers. It is clear that Elon literally started making it up as he went along in a series of tweets this year. There was never a plan.

The reason I find this so fascinating is that they are solving infinitely more complex problems on a daily basis. Watch any Karparthy presentation and you'll realize what astounding progress they have made over the years. Imagine the amount of talent required to come as far as they have.

And yet the chaos and confusion around the FSD rollout has been comical. When the price of FSD was reduced several years ago, Tesla hurriedly published a blog promising early FSD access to early purchasers. They seemed to forget this promise as soon as they made it. Elon then just offers up on Twitter for anyone interested to 'ask us' if they want access to the beta, then makes up the idea of a 'button' after their service centers get swamped with requests. He then has to stick to his plans for a 'button', while his team scrambled to figure out how to build and release this feature. And then they realize they need some kind of method for assessing beta testers, so they decided to repurpose the Safety Score system built for their insurance program.

In contrast, it would take a single mid-level product manager/project manager to plan a sensible, incremental, and customer-centric rollout of FSD features. Some examples:

• Converge the production and FSD beta code base first - with most of the navigate on autopilot features disabled. This would give all FSD customers a greatly improved 'basic autopilot' experience. Then gradually enable features - for example, auto steer on unmarked roads, or 'no confirmation' traffic light control.
• Recognize early on that any rollout of the 'full' FSD beta would need to be gradual (something they are *finally* beginning to plan for now). Develop a gradual rollout plan that takes into account date of FSD purchase, along with other considerations (such as Safety Score). Clearly communicate to customers via e-mail, in-app notifications, etc. Perhaps even give them an idea of where they are in line?
• Stick with the plan that you communicate to customers. Don't make it up via Twitter and then change the plan every few days. I'm not saying they need to hit specific dates, as that is very difficult when dealing with an engineering challenge of this magnitude. But be consistent with *how* you're going to release these features to your customers.

Again, not a rant. I don't agree with the haters who say that Elon is a charlatan and is selling vaporware. It's clear to me that they have something very, very real here, and they clearly want to get to a wide release. But why they would put so much effort into engineering and innovation, and so little into basic planning and communication, is baffling to me.

It's kind of surprising to me that when the button actually launched, there was NO details. Like, they have this safety score calculator with excellent documentation on how its calculating its score from your data. But it's like they never had a full plan together if that makes sense. Like we got the button and the safety score without knowing where the cutoff was, how the rollout was going to work, what version would roll out, etc. All that came days later and extremely vaguely through tweets from Elon.

Its been what? 4-6 months since the button was mentioned initially via tweets, and no one thought to actually make a plan and communicate it to customers? I know tesla has my email, there's no reason they couldn't they have an email go out when you opt in that clearly laid out details.

I'm not trying to complain, because we're actually starting to get somewhere now with rolling out to a wider test group, which is a good thing. And I'll be doing my best to keep my score up (don't think I can get back to 100 by the weekend, but staying at 99 is totally possible) but the situation is frustrating...

 

[BobDolesGhost]

It's kind of surprising to me that when the button actually launched, there was NO details

Maybe a possibility is Tesla didn't want to advertise the wider FSD beta? Sticking the button out there with no details allows those of us that are obsessive enough to keep up with the FSD news to throw our hats in the bucket, but the vast majority of people that don't care probably won't notice it. Maybe its a way to keep the wider beta pool smaller

Yes, Its probably more likely simply was no real plan and this was thrown together by Tesla SW/FW engineers trying to keep up with Elon's tweet commitments (poor guys...)

 

[dckiwi]

It's kind of surprising to me that when the button actually launched, there was NO details. Like, they have this safety score calculator with excellent documentation on how its calculating its score from your data. But it's like they never had a full plan together if that makes sense. Like we got the button and the safety score without knowing where the cutoff was, how the rollout was going to work, what version would roll out, etc. All that came days later and extremely vaguely through tweets from Elon.

Its been what? 4-6 months since the button was mentioned initially via tweets, and no one thought to actually make a plan and communicate it to customers? I know tesla has my email, there's no reason they couldn't they have an email go out when you opt in that clearly laid out details.

I'm not trying to complain, because we're actually starting to get somewhere now with rolling out to a wider test group, which is a good thing. And I'll be doing my best to keep my score up (don't think I can get back to 100 by the weekend, but staying at 99 is totally possible) but the situation is frustrating...

Exactly. And even now, we have no idea how we'll be admitted into the beta. This weekend (or next, still unclear) will the lucky recipients just see a software update for their cars? And when they install it they discover FSD Beta? Or will they get an email? Or something in the mobile app? No idea.

 

[ahoen117]

Maybe a possibility is Tesla didn't want to advertise the wider FSD beta? Sticking the button out there with no details allows those of us that are obsessive enough to keep up with the FSD news to throw our hats in the bucket, but the vast majority of people that don't care probably won't notice it. Maybe its a way to keep the wider beta pool smaller

Yes, Its probably more likely simply was no real plan and this was thrown together by Tesla SW/FW engineers trying to keep up with Elon's tweet commitments (poor guys...)

I could see this being a thing, that kind of why was thinking send details directly to you after you opt in.

Exactly. And even now, we have no idea how we'll be admitted into the beta. This weekend (or next, still unclear) will the lucky recipients just see a software update for their cars? And when they install it they discover FSD Beta? Or will they get an email? Or something in the mobile app? No idea.

Don't worry, we'll get a tweet Friday that'll clear up clears up this weekend or next weekend, but will leave out some other important detail

 

[Microterf]

I could see this being a thing, that kind of why was thinking send details directly to you after you opt in.


Don't worry, we'll get a tweet Friday that'll clear up clears up this weekend or next weekend, but will leave out some other important detail

I wish you weren't right, but I know you are.

 

[Knightshade]

he's not an engineer.

How many times do you need this untrue claim debunked before you stop making it? This is hardly the first time for you.


Elon is literally the chief engineer for SpaceX.

If you'd like even more evidence someone conveniently compiled it here-

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/k1e0ta

It includes quotes from numerous high level aerospace engineers from JPL, NASA, etc, numerous long-time space reporters, and even astronauts, all confirming this is not a vanity title.

 

[nvx1977]

And if you want to see for yourself how technical Musk can be, just watch this video (jump past the intro fluff). He knows his stuff.

 

[Bladerskb]

How many times do you need this untrue claim debunked before you stop making it? This is hardly the first time for you.


Elon is literally the chief engineer for SpaceX.

If you'd like even more evidence someone conveniently compiled it here-

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/k1e0ta

It includes quotes from numerous high level aerospace engineers from JPL, NASA, etc, numerous long-time space reporters, and even astronauts, all confirming this is not a vanity title.

I haven't read all the quotes but from what I read, as an engineer, none of it actually proves he is an engineer.
You can have great leadership qualities, insert your self, have a high level understanding (rather than a low level understanding), direct and manage a project closely and STILL NOT BE an engineer.

For example the first "Elon and the Propulsion department are leading development of the SpaceX engines" Doesn't mean he is a engineer.
You can get the similar quotes in that list from people about their asshole CEO who will fire you for disagreeing with him in the Autopilot team, Boring Company, NeuralLink.
That doesn't mean that Elon can design and train novel deep learning models, or can describe NN architectures in details and implement them.
Same with neurallink, can Elon perform brain surgery, etc.
I could keep going.

But doing this "When the third chamber cracked, Musk flew the hardware back to California, took it to the factory floor, and, with the help of some engineers, started to fill the chambers with an epoxy to see if it would seal them. “He’s not afraid to get his hands dirty,” Mueller said. “He’s out there with his nice Italian shoes and clothes and has epoxy all over him. They were there all night and tested it again and it broke anyway.” Musk, clothes ruined, had decided the hardware was flawed, tested his hypothesis, and moved on quickly."

DOESN'T MAKE YOU AN ENGINEER!

This is like someone saying they repaired their PC or they built a PC so that means they are an engineer. Or that they soldiered a chip following instructions. Its nonsense.
Just like his claims about Autopilot and the Autopilot team.

 

[Knightshade]

I haven't read all the quotes but from what I read, as an engineer, none of it actually proves he is an engineer.

I did read all your reply, and the fact you made a technical decision while admitting you didn't look at all the data suggests your claim of YOU being an engineer is.... suspect

Maybe try reading all the many quotes proving the claim before insisting they don't prove the claim?

 

[Bladerskb]

I did read all your reply, and the fact you made a technical decision while admitting you didn't look at all the data suggests your claim of YOU being an engineer is.... suspect

Maybe try reading all the many quotes proving the claim before insisting they don't prove the claim?

Maybe because i'm at work currently "engineering" and don't have time to read BS posts about employees praising their asshole CEO so they don't get fired.
Again Elon can't do none of what I posted. So no he's not an engineer.

 

[Knightshade]

Maybe because i'm at work currently "engineering" and don't have time to read BS posts

But you have time to make inaccurate replies to them without bothering to read most of what you replied to?

I deeply hope you don't "engineer" anything safety critical.


"Sorry that collapsed, I didn't have time to actually read all the specs...."


if you do please let us know what so we know to stop using it.

 

[linux-works]

And if you want to see for yourself how technical Musk can be, just watch this video (jump past the intro fluff). He knows his stuff.

which sections are you referring to?

this is just usual ceo repeat-talk. nothing shows he has depth other than the high level concepts, which any controlling ceo should be able to mouth back to the press.

 

[nvx1977]

which sections are you referring to?

this is just usual ceo repeat-talk. nothing shows he has depth other than the high level concepts, which any controlling ceo should be able to mouth back to the press.

I get that it's a really long video, and for someone like you who is already convinced on your stance, you don't have a lot of patience to watch the video. But... if you were to just put yourself in a neutral stance just for the sake of argument, and watch this video as a way to learn more about Starship, you'll find that Elon knows his stuff and is the decision maker for lots of what they are doing.

I'm pretty sure a lot of us on this forum are hardcore engineers in our respective disciplines, and if you aren't an engineer of rocketry, you're likely going to appreciate how much Elon knows about the subject if you watch this video. Part 2 is equally impressive if you like geeking out on this stuff.

 

[buyleonard]

It's the difference between a company run by engineers and accountants. Engineer run companies miss a bunch of deadlines and spend lots of extra money, but when they deliver it is usually worthwhile. Accountant run companies meet their deadlines and there is a lot less chaos, but they play it safe (money wise). There are some aviation companies that used to be run by engineers and always delivered great products, but now accountant types have taken over. They made a lot of profit for a while, but the quality and innovation has slowly declined, and no one trusts them anymore.

If Tesla today was given to accountants, they would make a ton of money for a few years, until the lack on innovation would catch up with them.

We are lucky that Tesla is still run by engineers. Any other company would have given up by now, just like the rest of the car company's gave up. And with that good, comes a lot of bad, such as missed timelines, and overestimations of what they can accomplish. Luckily Tesla has so much money from stock sales they can just re-design when they hit a dead end, instead of giving up.

It's fascinating to watch.

 

[EVNow]

Don't make it up via Twitter and then change the plan every few days.

You want Tesla to work like Waymo ? Tesla would have mopped around in Chandler, AZ for 3 years.

The reason Tesla can do things differently is because FSD team has CEO cover. Its all about delivery - no usual corporate "mid-level manager" politics and CYA involved.

ps : In general people want all the positives that comes with extreme flexibility and but none of the negatives. Its like having the cake and eating it too. If you want stability and predictability look at Apple/Google (or in auto world Merc/BMW) - if you want fast growth and bleeding edge, Tesla is what you need.

 

[mark95476]

Exactly. I'd summarize this to "show me". I don't care about hearing vague or detailed plans for months and months in advance. All of that goes in one ear and out the other.

Show me FSDbeta. Tesla have ~biweekly releases and testers post to YouTube for me to see.
Show me the Button. Tesla releases 32.22. I download, update my car, and press the button.

You want Tesla to work like Waymo ? Tesla would have mopped around in Chandler, AZ for 3 years.

The reason Tesla can do things differently is because FSD team has CEO cover. Its all about delivery - no usual corporate "mid-level manager" politics and CYA involved.

I think Tesla do a lot of planning and then updates them constantly to adapt for current conditions. FSD autosteer city gets a lot of attention, but its more of a distraction in the wider business picture. It's not like every single other auto OEM has been selling their own ADAS package for years and Elon is being mocked for being woefully behind. It's the exact opposite.

Tesla intends to keep the tech lead and FSDbeta demonstrates this to customers.

Maybe a possibility is Tesla didn't want to advertise the wider FSD beta? Sticking the button out there with no details allows those of us that are obsessive enough to keep up with the FSD news to throw our hats in the bucket, but the vast majority of people that don't care probably won't notice it. Maybe its a way to keep the wider beta pool smaller

Yes, Its probably more likely simply was no real plan and this was thrown together by Tesla SW/FW engineers trying to keep up with Elon's tweet commitments (poor guys...)

 

[Unclepaul]

I believe that Tesla has always had a plan for FSD.
Originally the cars came with no FSD sensors, but along the way a full sensor suite of camera, radar, ultrasonics was designed and integrated into the cars as standard equipment.
Early on Tesla partnered with Mobile Eye to integrate FSD software into the cars as well.
Sometime later Mobile Eye and Tesla broke apart as internally they felt that they had a better plan. Far advanced and with a greater potential and far lower costs.
This seperation caused Tesla to essentially start all over on a path they felt offered better long term results, but at the cost of changing horses mid stream.
Over the years, both software and hardware has gotten better and most feel that Tesla has the best system currently available on cars with the potential to achieve FSD plus greater safety as it is refined.
Tesla is doing this in house while compiling far more data that any other company. They also have developed a world class computer data storage and analysis system that is capable of real time data acquisition from the millions of sensors on existing cars as they travel millions of miles every month.
I believe this path is going to be the right path, but it is far harder than anyone had imagined at the beginning.

 

[gearchruncher]

Early on Tesla partnered with Mobile Eye to integrate FSD software into the cars as well.
Sometime later Mobile Eye and Tesla broke apart as internally they felt that they had a better plan.

FYI, when it was mobileye, it was mobileye's hardware also.
Also, the Mobileye breakup was caused because Mobileye said that Tesla was too aggressive with their AP advertising and capabilities, and were using Mobileye's systems for things it was never designed for, and was unsafe. Mobileye didn't want to be involved with Tesla anymore since they could see they would behave this way. That behavior has not changed.

Mobileye says Tesla was 'pushing the envelope in terms of safety'

Mobileye <MBLY.N> broke ties with Tesla Motors <TSLA.O> because the Silicon Valley firm was “pushing the envelope in terms of safety” with the design of its Autopilot driver-assistance system, Mobileye’s chairman said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

capable of real time data acquisition from the millions of sensors on existing cars as they travel millions of miles every month.

This is not real time in any way, nor does it collect even 1% of the data from Teslas driving around. You have to get the data to the computer, and bandwidth is expensive. Collecting all data from all cars would bankrupt even Tesla.

The idea that Tesla's plan was to sell AP1, get broken up with by Mobileye before AP2 was ready, release AP2 early with no functionality but with a cool video, sell FSD as "definietly in 2017" and then only be at L2 City streets autosteer in 2022 while promising it in 2019, 2020, and 2021? That was not a plan.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Meh.
The only problem with FSD is the bullshit from Musk while engineers have tried to do the hard work of figuring out the hardware and software requirements.

This implementation and bitching about the safety score it's just a sideshow.