This is not a rant or complaint about the way Tesla has handled the FSD rollout - there are plenty of threads on that topic.
What I find fascinating is that, despite the fact that Tesla has been working on FSD since AP 2.0 was released exactly 5 years ago, it is clear that no one gave any serious thought to
how they might gradually roll out significant new FSD capabilities to customers. It is clear that Elon literally started
making it up as he went along in a series of tweets this year.
There was never a plan.
The reason I find this so fascinating is that they are solving
infinitely more complex problems on a daily basis. Watch any Karparthy presentation and you'll realize what astounding progress they have made over the years. Imagine the amount of talent required to come as far as they have.
And yet the chaos and confusion around the FSD rollout has been comical. When the price of FSD was reduced several years ago, Tesla hurriedly published a blog promising early FSD access to early purchasers. They seemed to forget this promise as soon as they made it. Elon then just offers up on Twitter for anyone interested to 'ask us' if they want access to the beta, then makes up the idea of a 'button' after their service centers get swamped with requests. He then has to stick to his plans for a 'button', while his team scrambled to figure out how to build and release this feature. And then they realize they need some kind of method for assessing beta testers, so they decided to repurpose the Safety Score system built for their insurance program.
In contrast, it would take a single mid-level product manager/project manager to plan a sensible, incremental, and customer-centric rollout of FSD features. Some examples:
- Converge the production and FSD beta code base first - with most of the navigate on autopilot features disabled. This would give all FSD customers a greatly improved 'basic autopilot' experience. Then gradually enable features - for example, auto steer on unmarked roads, or 'no confirmation' traffic light control.
- Recognize early on that any rollout of the 'full' FSD beta would need to be gradual (something they are *finally* beginning to plan for now). Develop a gradual rollout plan that takes into account date of FSD purchase, along with other considerations (such as Safety Score). Clearly communicate to customers via e-mail, in-app notifications, etc. Perhaps even give them an idea of where they are in line?
- Stick with the plan that you communicate to customers. Don't make it up via Twitter and then change the plan every few days. I'm not saying they need to hit specific dates, as that is very difficult when dealing with an engineering challenge of this magnitude. But be consistent with *how* you're going to release these features to your customers.
Again, not a rant. I don't agree with the haters who say that Elon is a charlatan and is selling vaporware. It's clear to me that they have something very, very real here, and they clearly want to get to a wide release. But why they would put so much effort into engineering and innovation, and so little into basic planning and communication, is baffling to me.
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