"There's going to be a dedicated robotaxi, it's going to look quite futuristic"

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

So the Tesla dedicated "robotaxi" is just going to be a shuttle that moves people in the Boring tunnels? That's not a robotaxi. I thought Elon announced an actual dedicated robotaxi vehicle like the Cruise Origin. Also, if that is the case, then there is nothing to be excited about. Basically, in a couple years, Tesla will build a futuristic looking "train car" that will ride in some boring tunnels in LV. Yawn.

No. It's just that the reason for them to start making one _now_ would be because of Boring. It's a controlled environment in which they would have a chance of deploying them _profitably_ soon, and where they're actually needed to try to improve the passenger throughput, and provide the level of accessibility required of public transportation .

Maybe they'll also use some of them on their campuses.

Otherwise, what's the rush? Vehicle form factor isn't the problem. The problem is making real autonomous vehicles that allow the ratio of vehicle to driver high enough to make lots of money.

 

[BrerBear]

And I’d rather a CEO that dreams big and sometimes falls short or is delayed rather than the “realist” who never reaches for the stars.

Why is this an either / or? He could still dream big and just be honest.

 

[Goose66]

It sounds like a desperate attempt to remain relevant in the AV space.

It sounds like a desperate attempt to remain relevant in the AV space.

+1

 

[Goose66]

When Elon puts boots on Mars in 10 years he will be criticized for not doing it in 5, and people will snipe that his rapidly reusable spacecraft only cuts costs by 75x, not 100x like he “promised.”

That's apples and oranges. "boots on Mars" is something he's doing with his own money, not something he's selling to paying private customers. This is not about Elon's highly aspirational predictions - it's about a car company selling/promising stuff to customers, taking their money, then not delivering.

 

[Matias]

If either of you could think objectively you would have recognized that this is about moving people in Boring's tunnels and doesn't affect their general FSD path.

Fully automated metro is 20 years old.

 

[Mardak]

Looks like there's a 2024 volume production target for this as Elon Musk announced in the 22Q1 earnings call:

We're also working on a new vehicle that I alluded to at the Giga Texas opening, which is a dedicated robotaxi that's highly optimized for autonomy -- meaning it would not have steering wheel or pedals. There are a number of other innovations around it that I think are quite exciting. Fundamentally it's trying to achieve the fully considered lowest cost per mile or km acounting everything. I think it's going to be a very powerful product. We aspire to reach volume production of that in 2024. I think that really will be a massive driver of Tesla's growth.​

 

[diplomat33]

Looks like there's a 2024 volume production target for this as Elon Musk announced in the 22Q1 earnings call:

We're also working on a new vehicle that I alluded to at the Giga Texas opening, which is a dedicated robotaxi that's highly optimized for autonomy -- meaning it would not have steering wheel or pedals. There are a number of other innovations around it that I think are quite exciting. Fundamentally it's trying to achieve the fully considered lowest cost per mile or km acounting everything. I think it's going to be a very powerful product. We aspire to reach volume production of that in 2024. I think that really will be a massive driver of Tesla's growth.​

Elon also said that they are planning a "robotaxi event" next year. My guess is the event will unveil the robotaxi vehicle.

 

[thewishmaster]

Elon also said that they are planning a "robotaxi event" next year. My guess is the event will unveil the robotaxi vehicle.

Similar to the robot that was a person in a morphsuit, will it be a Model Y with some cardboard taped to it?

 

[diplomat33]

Similar to the robot that was a person in a morphsuit, will it be a Model Y with some cardboard taped to it?

LOL.

But I don't doubt that Tesla could build a concept robotaxi. It could be a modified cyber truck with no steering wheel or pedals and with seats facing each other. So I fully expect Tesla will unveil some concept vehicle next year. The real challenge is "solving FSD" because building a robotaxi does not matter if your FSD is not good enough.

 

[thewishmaster]

LOL.

But I don't doubt that Tesla could build a concept robotaxi. It could be a modified cyber truck with no steering wheel or pedals and with seats facing each other. The real challenge is "solving FSD" because building a robotaxi does not matter if your FSD is not good enough.

Yeah, if the lead time on Zoox and Cruise robotaxi reveals are any indication - it would be another handful of years before they are seen on the roads.

 

[EVNow]

Similar to the robot that was a person in a morphsuit, will it be a Model Y with some cardboard taped to it?

LOL.

But I don't doubt that Tesla could build a concept robotaxi. It could be a modified cyber truck with no steering wheel or pedals and with seats facing each other. So I fully expect Tesla will unveil some concept vehicle next year. The real challenge is "solving FSD" because building a robotaxi does not matter if your FSD is not good enough.

Unlike ALL other legacy auto makers, Tesla hasn't revealed a concept car that is very far from what they eventually produce. So, I don't expect something drastically different from their intended production model.

If they reveal a robotaxi model next year, it will be what they plan to produce.

I don't expect it to be like Cybertruck - more likely a Model 3 / Y variant.

 

[diplomat33]

Unlike ALL other legacy auto makers, Tesla hasn't revealed a concept car that is very far from what they eventually produce. So, I don't expect something drastically different from their intended production model.

If they reveal a robotaxi model next year, it will be what they plan to produce.

I don't expect it to be like Cybertruck - more likely a Model 3 / Y variant.

Like I said, I don't doubt that Tesla will unveil a real vehicle next year and plans to start mass production the following year. That's not the hard part. Achieving safe and reliable FSD, good enough for driverless, is the hard part.

Elon did say that the vehicle will be "quite futuristic":

There’s going to be a dedicated robotaxi that is going to look quite futuristic-looking.

So the vehicle will probably look quite different than just a Model 3 or Y with no steering wheel.

 

[momo3605]

I thought the consensus in this group was that Tesla was buying back all of their leased Model 3s and Ys to run them as robotaxis. I guess we can conclude that’s not going to happen right?

 

[Daniel in SD]

I predict it's going to be just like the Cruise Origin and the Zoox except with falcon wing doors and the Cybertruck design language.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I thought the consensus in this group was that Tesla was buying back all of their leased Model 3s and Ys to run them as robotaxis. I guess we can conclude that’s not going to happen right?

Even with dedicated robotaxis, they'd still want to extract maximum value from existing vehicles.

Dedicated vehicles focus on more specific tasks. A simple box with easy ingress and egress for intra-urban public transportation is obvious. But you'd want something different for personal highway use where the vehicle efficiency has practical implications.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I predict it's going to be just like the Cruise Origin and the Zoox except with falcon wing doors and the Cybertruck design language.

No falcon wing doors. It'll have sliding doors that make a cool sound.

 

[zecar]

I thought the consensus in this group was that Tesla was buying back all of their leased Model 3s and Ys to run them as robotaxis. I guess we can conclude that’s not going to happen right?

More likely Tesla is giving us their forecast of continued battery shortages in three years. If prices stay up the used Model 3 in 2025 is essentially the Model 2 that Musk is no longer talking about making.

 

[zecar]

LOL.

But I don't doubt that Tesla could build a concept robotaxi. It could be a modified cyber truck with no steering wheel or pedals and with seats facing each other. So I fully expect Tesla will unveil some concept vehicle next year. The real challenge is "solving FSD" because building a robotaxi does not matter if your FSD is not good enough.

Tesla does have the resources to be doing parallel development. There could be an expensive city robotaxi under development.

 

[Daniel in SD]

No falcon wing doors. It'll have sliding doors that make a cool sound.

Sliding doors are the best but for some reason inherently uncool. I've always thought it would nice to have a car with sliding front and back doors like this:

 

[Goose66]

Sliding doors are the best but for some reason inherently uncool.

Because you equate them with minivans?