Thesis and Poll - Long TSLA Short auto insurance

[alsetyledom280]

FSD 12.3.x on clearly marked non divided suburban roads is indeed amazing.

What does this mean for other industries as positive disruptor?

About 40K+ people killed on road each year. And there are companies that thrive on such human tragedies, ie, insurance companies and hospital groups.

Given Tesla has intense media coverage for any negative news, I would guess FSD 12.3.x has NOT got into any fatal accident yet.

This is really promising for society.

Regulators and other car companies will have to promote FSD type of technology if it were to prove less accidents and fatalities (I believe both are true).

So I would like to set up a poll, I think there will be a tetonic shift from paying auto insurance to paying FSD, provided BRK's Buffet and Jain are on board on in the future (Jain runs GEICO under BRK). Maybe one day Tesla auto insurance will offer $20/month premium if the car is really that safe. In the end, market will recognize the risk/premium associated with FSD.

So the FSD true value can be thought as auto insurance premium discount (like if you have attended online defensive driving class etc).

I currently pay $101/month for my Tesla. So in my view, that is theoretical max value of FSD monthly subscription, marked to insurance premium market.

Let us just ignore everyone auto insurance can have drastically different coverage and limit $ amount.

 

[ewoodrick]

First, you don't state the term on you poll? Month? Quarter? Yearly?

"Tetonic shifts" don't occur in 2 months, the length of time 12.X has bee widely available.

You pay $101/month and don't see that the max value of FSD could be more? Much more?
I guess you don't value your life much. I know that mine is MUCH more.

 

[Daniel in SD]

If enabling FSD is truly 5x safer than driving without it shouldn’t Tesla insurance already be 5x cheaper for people who use it all the time?

 

[alsetyledom280]

First, you don't state the term on you poll? Month? Quarter? Yearly?

"Tetonic shifts" don't occur in 2 months, the length of time 12.X has bee widely available.

You pay $101/month and don't see that the max value of FSD could be more? Much more?
I guess you don't value your life much. I know that mine is MUCH more.

Truly sorry I was in a rush and it is monthly for the poll.

 

[alsetyledom280]

If enabling FSD is truly 5x safer than driving without it shouldn’t Tesla insurance already be 5x cheaper for people who use it all the time?

That is the trend if fsd indeed safer and with good take rate. Insurance premium is marked to market (let us hope that, a big assumption)

 

[Daniel in SD]

That is the trend if fsd indeed safer and with good take rate. Insurance premium is marked to market (let us hope that, a big assumption)

Tesla claims it’s already 5x safer.

Tesla Vehicle Safety Report | Tesla

At Tesla, we believe that technology can help improve safety. That’s why Tesla vehicles are engineered to be the safest cars in the world. We believe the unique combination of passive safety, active safety, and automated driver assistance is crucial for keeping not just Tesla drivers and...

www.tesla.com

 

[DanCar]

I pay less than $100 per month. Am I doing it right?

 

[ewoodrick]

I pay less than $100 per month. Am I doing it right?

It depends. People try to measure Insurance as if was Apples to Apples, it's far from it. Different people, different histories, different vehicles, different ages, different cities all make big differences.

 

[alsetyledom280]

Tesla claims it’s already 5x safer.

Tesla Vehicle Safety Report | Tesla

At Tesla, we believe that technology can help improve safety. That’s why Tesla vehicles are engineered to be the safest cars in the world. We believe the unique combination of passive safety, active safety, and automated driver assistance is crucial for keeping not just Tesla drivers and...

www.tesla.com

Unfortunately what Tesla claims in their own safety report does not really count. Their report is far from scientific and they don't have other auto maker data either. It is an apple to orange comparison.

What really count is # of fsd 12.x fatality or accident and market insurance rate if the car has FSD 12.

In my view, FSD is a huge disruptor for auto insurance industry if it were to prove it's worth for next 12 months

 

[alsetyledom280]

I pay less than $100 per month. Am I doing it right?

U are all right and belongs to lucky group of Tesla drivers.

My point here is that FSD subscription revenue is capped by monthly insurance premium discount for their Tesla, right now I see monthly insurance premium is between $100 and $200.

In a way, GS estimate of some 75bn FSD revenue is just bs.

 

[legendsk]

Mine was $75 / month and my SS was 100%. Until I went to Burger King on an exceptionally slow day and waited in line for 45 minutes. SS went to 80 something for "following to closely". Premium went to $130 and eventually $150. I don't eat at Burger King any more and SS is now 100%, so premium should drop back down eventually?

 

[ewoodrick]

Unfortunately what Tesla claims in their own safety report does not really count. Their report is far from scientific and they don't have other auto maker data either. It is an apple to orange comparison.

Not sure why it's not scientific, that's the one thing that it actually is. It's collected under very specific situations and should be accurate in those situations.
Yea, other automakers really don't collect and publish that that type of data, but Tesla does compare it against the best data source out there.
But the real criteria is the year to year comparisons.

NHTSA just closed the investigation into Tesla about Autopilot/FSD and found no need for corrective actions. Mostly that people lied about FSD being the cause.

 

[Daniel in SD]

What does scientific mean in this context?
If you used FSD 100% of the time would you have 5x fewer collisions than if you didn’t use it at all?
I’m skeptical.

 

[alsetyledom280]

Not sure why it's not scientific, that's the one thing that it actually is. It's collected under very specific situations and should be accurate in those situations.
Yea, other automakers really don't collect and publish that that type of data, but Tesla does compare it against the best data source out there.
But the real criteria is the year to year comparisons.

NHTSA just closed the investigation into Tesla about Autopilot/FSD and found no need for corrective actions. Mostly that people lied about FSD being the cause.

Tesla car is quite safe, but not as 5x safer as they claimed. If 5x safer, market based auto insurance premium would reflect that exceptional safety record.

It is also a common sense you don't believe what they say, we need to do homework and due diligence ourselves. You would image if some folks from Tesla said Tesla is as safe as BMW, musk would have fired the dude next day. It is a private company. They have no obligation to broadcast things that is not for their benefits

 

[PCMc]

I think you fail to recognize there are several components that determine insurance rate. Only one of which is your personal safe (or unsafe) driving record. Others have to factor in the risks of those operating vehicles around you as well as the cost to repair your vehicle. FSD does nothing to necessarily improve these components, and Tesla vehicles actually seem to suffer from higher repair costs due to factors like the aluminum construction of the Model S, long delays at times in securing parts, as well as potentially higher part costs.

Also, for states that are a no fault situation, the risk of getting hit by another driver, which my insurance would have to cover, my actually be a larger component than the liability resulting from me causing an accident.

Also, based upon what I've been seeing with my own experience with FSD 12.3.3, 12.3.4, and not 12.3.6 you are not going to convince me that FSD is 5x safer than my own driving skills. I've seen it way to many times fail to get into the appropriate lane to make a left or right turn and then sudden do a mad dive across multiple lanes of traffic when it suddely realizes it's missing a turn. Also the latest option where it will auto set the speed based upon surroundings drive recklesslly fast at times for the conditions. I've had to disengage it when it wants to drive 12 mph over the posted speed limit, wanting to do 40-45 mph on streets in my local residential neighborhood with posted 30 mph speed limits. And that's not due to it failing to recognize the speed limit or because it's trying to keep pace with surrounding traffic. It's correctly displaying that the speed limit is 30 mph and there are no other cars around me.

 

[Cheburashka]

This sort of nonsensical way of thinking about how incredibly safe Tesla's L2 driver assists are and teabagging Elon will get you and potentially others killed.

Tesla Autopilot investigation closed after feds find 13 fatal crashes related to misuse​

“This mismatch resulted in a critical safety gap between drivers’ expectations of [Autopilot’s] operating capabilities and the system’s true capabilities,” the agency wrote. “This gap led to foreseeable misuse and avoidable crashes.”

 

[ewoodrick]

Also, based upon what I've been seeing with my own experience with FSD 12.3.3, 12.3.4, and not 12.3.6 you are not going to convince me that FSD is 5x safer than my own driving skills.

How many times have you caught yourself distracted while driving? How many times did you look up and realize that you were much further along in your route than you thought?

FSD is not released yet. It is still being actively worked on.

And I dare say that your driving has a lot of area for criticism, just like everyone's.

I think that it would be really interesting if we could post "How you drive" videos against "How FSD drives"