Thinking about Q1 2013 earnings

[FalconNinetyD]

Up 15% after hours!

I expect TSLA to be down pretty hard tomorrow. I just can't imagine a credible scenario where they can exceed the expectations that are built into the current stock price. At least not on reported numbers. The only thing that I can see making a rally happen from here is superb guidance. I'm not quite sure what that guidance looks like though.

I think smorg is right though. Focus is going to be on the reservation backlog and the margins (sans credits). I don't have any better visibility into either of those than anyone else, which makes me nervous.

 

[deonb]

Me too (bought calls that is). Couldn't agree more on the big thanks that go out to all contributors, especially CapOp and luvb2b! It kind of sounds like we are organizing a party ad-hoc right now

Shoutout from me to CapOp and luvb2b as well. It was nailbiting but I hung in there because of you - I really owe you guys.

Tomorrow I will start to change my option position to a long stock position, and if the current price even close to hold through the morning, I would effectively be acquiring TSLA at: $2.50 per share by virtue of the option trades I did over the last 21 days.

This is the first time ever I've broken a 2000% gain in a month, and I would have exited a long time ago if it weren't for your analysis.

 

[Citizen-T]

Up 15% after hours!

It was the guidance. Like I said, I didn't know what that would look like, but now I do.

I did buy the calls because of this thread though. I actually wanted to sell ahead of the report. But you guys gave me enough doubt to buy a handful of calls just in case. It was money I fully expected to lose, but it worked out.

 

[ShortSlaver]

It was the guidance. Like I said, I didn't know what that would look like, but now I do.

I did buy the calls because of this thread though. I actually wanted to sell ahead of the report. But you guys gave me enough doubt to buy a handful of calls just in case. It was money I fully expected to lose, but it worked out.

EPS was far and away larger than anything the street was expecting. Most consensus was at like $.04. Guidance too of course, selling at least 1,000 more cars.

 

[Citizen-T]

EPS was far and away larger than anything the street was expecting. Most consensus was at like $.04. Guidance too of course, selling at least 1,000 more cars.

Eh. I think it's more about the demand guidance. That 30,000 cars a year demand number put the nail in the coffin of the short's thesis.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Eh. I think it's more about the demand guidance. That 30,000 cars a year demand number put the nail in the coffin of the short's thesis.

This +30000

 

[Benz]

In after hours it went pretty high: $72
And the volume was substantial as well: 1.27M

Tomorrows trading day is going to be interesting.

 

[smorgasbord]

While there will be lots of good news coming today, I wouldn't be surprised if the market gets spooked by the declining reservation backlog.

OK, I was wrong: only Cory Johnson of Bloomberg cares. Everyone else is happy with:

We continue to modify our sales processes to simplify and enhance the customer experience. As vehicle production became more reliable during Q1, we realized that the reservation process was cumbersome and therefore eliminated it. Customers in North America now order their customized Model S online in a simple three step process, rather than placing a generic reservation in a queue. As a result, quarter-end reservation data is no longer a meaningful metric, nor is it comparable to prior quarters. Going forward, we believe that the accepted automotive industry approach of focusing on margin improvement, profitability and deliveries are the more meaningful metrics for measuring progress.

I also think the comments about getting people to finalize pretty soon after placing their order helping avoid cancellations are also appropriate. I do think the haters will use this to say Tesla demand could evaporate any time, but it looks like until Tesla can't sell an average of 58 cars a day no-one will care.

At any rate, I don't expect a short squeeze this week.

I may be wrong on this, too. For some shorters, the stock has more than doubled - for other shorters it's about to double tomorrow. I think there will be some new shorters getting in, perhaps by buying Puts, since even some believers think a $70+ level is unsustainable.

 

[Citizen-T]

I have to eat crow too and say that I was wrong. I also didn't see a beat coming, and expected us to be down. I'll own that.

Never been so happy to be wrong in my life. =)

 

[ModelS8794]

While there will be lots of good news coming today, I wouldn't be surprised if the market gets spooked by the declining reservation backlog.

OK, I was wrong: only Cory Johnson of Bloomberg cares. Everyone else is happy with:

We continue to modify our sales processes to simplify and enhance the customer experience. As vehicle production became more reliable during Q1, we realized that the reservation process was cumbersome and therefore eliminated it. Customers in North America now order their customized Model S online in a simple three step process, rather than placing a generic reservation in a queue. As a result, quarter-end reservation data is no longer a meaningful metric, nor is it comparable to prior quarters. Going forward, we believe that the accepted automotive industry approach of focusing on margin improvement, profitability and deliveries are the more meaningful metrics for measuring progress.

.

Well, the Customer Deposit liability landing at 131 million probably mitigates some of the fears about the big bad unknown reservation book and what cancellation activity looked like. That $8 million decline represents only 1,620 net reduction in reservations (or less, if Canadian Sigs were in the 12/31 number... I can't remeber now when they went out the door)... The implication of that line item is perhaps ironic; the more forcefully one insists cancellations hampered Tesla this quarter, the more credit one must give to the current pace of new reservations.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Well, the Customer Deposit liability landing at 131 million probably mitigates some of the fears about the big bad unknown reservation book and what cancellation activity looked like. That $8 million decline represents only 1,620 net reduction in reservations (or less, if Canadian Sigs were in the 12/31 number... I can't remeber now when they went out the door)... The implication of that line item is perhaps ironic; the more forcefully one insists cancellations hampered Tesla this quarter, the more credit one must give to the current pace of new reservations.

Excellent point. I hadn't even looked at that. I'm still trying to figure out how they are getting to their top line revenue number. It seemed bloated (in a good way) last time too, but I rationalized it because of the Sig premium.

I seem to recall Canadian deliveries not starting until 2013. I think they were still waiting on all of the approvals, which would mean Canadian Sigs were still on the books at end of Q4.

 

[DonPedro]

500 EU sigs should be good for Q3 ASP.

 

[DaveT]

Great thread from 2013 that deserves a bump so more people can read it.

 

[SunCatcher]

Great thread from 2013 that deserves a bump so more people can read it.

Yes Dave, really worth a look back on, as we approach Q1 2017 earnings results on May 3. I particularly enjoyed this entry (from May 8, 2013) on the preceding page;

" I am wondering what is stopping this stock from trading at $300/share. If you extrapolate forward earnings of $.60/share for 2013 and the market continues to offer a 660 multiple you are looking at $300/share/ Could it really be that that shorts will squeeze this all the way to $300?"