Thinking of backing out of my X reservation

[walla2]

I'm a pretty big Tesla enthusiast (Roadster, Model S, and #690's X reservation), but the X has really dragged itself out. After waiting over 2 years for the S, waiting again for the X to come to market has been difficult to watch happen yet again. Same mistakes as the S release. Same missed deadlines from a company that should be maturing instead of making and breaking promises to customers. Features promised on the S still haven't been delivered to 100% of the early adopters. Features on the X appear they might not be published until after you commit funds. Service at long range is also getting interesting with recent changes to ranger service availability, etc.

When the X could be delivered in 2014, I had the Washington State sales tax exemption on EV's and the need for a AWD car. Since that got moved to 2015, I got a gas powered 4WD truck for my other needs that couldn't wait until 2015. Now the X is moved farther back to 2015 and the sales tax exemption doesn't appear it will be renewed after June 2015 raising the cost of new ownership up $9K or more. The X would be a great vehicle to own I'm sure, but the wait has really made me wonder and as I got a little burned with an A-pack Sig with no upgrade options (partial + doesn't count) and fairly rapid depreciation (40% or more at 2.25 years), I am wondering if just picking one up 2 years from now on the CPO/used market would be a better idea from a tax/cost/quality control standpoint. A used 2016 or 2017 would likely be faster, have longer range, have better tech, and cost $25K+ less only slightly used based on what is happening to 2014 Model S cars now. It's either full price plus taxes and a small tax credit of $7500 or save likely over $25K for a refined car with less bugs/a better build.

Any one else feel the same way?

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think it could be a good idea to wait a couple of years and buy a used Model X. I think the Model S and Model X are now as expensive as they are ever going to get. In 1-2 years, Tesla should no longer be supply-limited for the S and X, so they will likely start lowering the pricing to increase demand. And we will see the Gigafactory start to drop battery costs in 2017. Greatly increased volume will also enable Tesla to lower prices. And of course, the Model X will definitely be improved over the next couple of years.

But personally, I'm fairly sure I'll be getting a Model X this year. You have a Model S to keep you company while waiting - I don't.

 

[Beryl]

But personally, I'm fairly sure I'll be getting a Model X this year. You have a Model S to keep you company while waiting - I don't.

This except it won't be until early 2016 unless more people drop out.

There is nothing technology related that doesn't improve in features, functions, and price over time. The MX will be no exception but I don't want to wait.

 

[Mr X]

Hasnt transpired to you that maybe just maybe Tesla doesn't want to release a half ass product?


Them pushing back the release date would make me want the X even more. Thinking that they are improving the overall quality of the vehicle even more so than they had at the original tentative release date. They want things to be done right and that alone right there would be enough for me to keep my reservation (if i had one or wanted the X) :biggrin:

 

[Gwgan]

Sometimes I do feel that way but then remember that a lot of those emotions are all about responses to expectations, not reality. I wanted the car last year, probably will not get it this year, and constantly question if it's worth the wait and kick myself about once a week for missing the signature deadline. Hold onto your reservation (I can't believe I'm saying that to somebody with a lower number) and then make your choice when your ticket is called and you can actually get the car, not now when there is no car and all you have is a prediction of whenever some analyst or some webster says you might.
When I read your post it seems that there must have been a time when you were willing to pay full price to support the mission, the company, the future, etc. but with two Teslas already you have certainly done your part and maybe no longer see the value in paying that premium again. You do need to make a value call but there's no value in vaporware so don't sweat it before there is a real decision to be made.

 

[walla2]

Hasnt transpired to you that maybe just maybe Tesla doesn't want to release a half asset product.:

Most of you didn't buy stock or put down a large deposit on the possibility of a car in 2010. Several of us did. I did. I waited over 2 years for my fantastic and finest car ever but truthfully a beta product that missed delivery window after delivery window. They didn't know one thing about pack life, warranty, service, fires, pack charge rates, etc. Tesla is a company. They will release their beta X and call them founders late this year and they will start delivering Sigs in 2016. When they say late 2015, they mean 10 cars just like when they said July 2012 they meant only 10 cars. By June, there will be new falcon door designs, new seats, and new parts all over the place. Make no mistake, the early Sigs like Bonnie's won't be like the cars made 5 or fewer months.

What is disappointing for me is the X has been in the works for so long and at the end of the day it's a 85D/P85d with a new body. Why make all the same missteps?

 

[BerTX]

I agree with Gwgan -- what would be the advantage in cancelling? (I also agree with wondering why I'm saying that to someone with a lower res #, but honestly, I like where my res # is because I want the bugs worked out and extra features added before I get mine)

I have other factors in my case. The MX will likely be the last car I buy in my lifetime. Waiting two years to get the same vehicle a little cheaper or with a few more features is not worth the two years of not having it. I plan to travel a lot in the car, and cutting two years off of that time is not an option.

 

[eco5280]

Waiting it always frustrating. I agree with you completely. But - here's the rub. When the X comes out - are you going to regret not getting one? Are you going to be okay with waiting ANOTHER 1-2 years getting back in line at the end of the queue if you drop your reservation? That's the question you must answer for yourself.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

What is disappointing for me is the X has been in the works for so long and at the end of the day it's a 85D/P85d with a new body. Why make all the same missteps?

I believed this would be the case a few years ago too, but based on statements from Elon and others at Tesla, I don't think it's that simple.

Model S was never designed to have towing capability. It's almost certainly the case that the Model X unibody changes necessitated a completely new suspension and who knows what else. I don't know if anyone recalls that Tesla wanted to change the Roadster doors many years ago, and Lotus told Elon that a change to the door would cascade into far more changes than something like changing the motor. I think Tesla basically had to design most of the X from scratch.

The company just underestimated how difficult it would be to engineer and SUV. That sentiment is reflected in the quarterly shareholder reports.

 

[Nubo]

It's a personal decision based on your values expectations and tolerances. There's nothing wrong with waiting. I did the same thing with the LEAF after I got tired of all the pre-order reservation shenanigans Nissan pulled I cancelled my reservation (a whopping $99). About 6 months after I might have gotten my original order I simply walked into a showroom and drove one home. Worked out just fine.

For us personally, we reserved the X in Dec 2013 and to tell the truth we're rather enjoying the wait. To quote the late Leonard Nimoy's most memorable character:

After a time, you may find that having is not so pleasing a thing after all as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true.

I expect we'll enjoy the car tremendously. But the waiting is fun too.

 

[ChadS]

Any one else feel the same way?

I feel very much the same way for very nearly the same reasons. I still have my X reservation, but I doubt I will go through with it.

That said, I will at least wait until more details are available about the X before deciding. And as others have pointed out, the situation is quite different for those that don't already have a couple of Teslas kicking around.

 

[AnOutsider]

I feel very much the same way for very nearly the same reasons. I still have my X reservation, but I doubt I will go through with it.

That said, I will at least wait until more details are available about the X before deciding. And as others have pointed out, the situation is quite different for those that don't already have a couple of Teslas kicking around.

heh, I've only got one, but some days I feel the same. My wife has a Q7 and I think to myself: we've got a good balance now without the potential frustrations of another Tesla buying experience.

 

[eco5280]

I did the same thing with the LEAF

Me too, but waiting for the 2013 mid-cycle update since I had heard they were imroving the heater and adding a more luxurious version. Waited a full year. It was torturous. But the Leaf I got was loads better than the one I would have gotten had I not waited. So waiting is painful, but can be the right and smart move.

 

[efusco]

As others have pointed out, you have to look at your own circumstances, needs and preferences. For us, we have a functional SUV hybrid that works, but is aging. But we can wait. We want all electric and, frankly, we still need the supercharger network in MO expanded to make full use of a Tesla. Also, after waiting nearly 4 years from deposit to delivery for my S, this is a cake walk! I knew what to expect, anticipated some delays and Tesla being Tesla. I think if we get the car at or near the end of 2015, we'll be happy.

Now, if I wanted to be mean, I'd really encourage the OP (and everyone else ahead of me in the queue) to drop their reservations so we can get ours sooner!

 

[Trnsl8r]

...
When the X could be delivered in 2014, I had the Washington State sales tax exemption on EV's and the need for a AWD car. Since that got moved to 2015, I got a gas powered 4WD truck for my other needs that couldn't wait until 2015. Now the X is moved farther back to 2015 and the sales tax exemption doesn't appear it will be renewed after June 2015 raising the cost of new ownership up $9K or more. The X would be a great vehicle to own I'm sure, but the wait has really made me wonder and as I got a little burned with an A-pack Sig with no upgrade options (partial + doesn't count) and fairly rapid depreciation (40% or more at 2.25 years), I am wondering if just picking one up 2 years from now on the CPO/used market would be a better idea from a tax/cost/quality control standpoint. A used 2016 or 2017 would likely be faster, have longer range, have better tech, and cost $25K+ less only slightly used based on what is happening to 2014 Model S cars now. It's either full price plus taxes and a small tax credit of $7500 or save likely over $25K for a refined car with less bugs/a better build.

Any one else feel the same way?

(To the bolded section) Most definitely yes. But I'll reserve judgment and keep my reservation until the point I'm sitting in front of the online configurator and look at the "confirm order" button.

- - - Updated - - -

Hasnt transpired to you that maybe just maybe Tesla doesn't want to release a half ass product?

...

Most certainly, and that is both appreciated and commendable. But apparently it hasn't transpired to Elon & co. to set feasible deadlines, and after 10+ years in the business they should be closer to, if not meeting, their self-imposed deadlines rather than consistently blowing past them by several years.

 

[gjunky]

I was in line for a model S with a reservation number in the 3xxx range but at the end decided to cancel my reservation. This was because the 40kWh wasn't what I thought it would be and was eventually cancelled. The larger battery version ended up more expensive than I was comfortable with. All this was made worse by the delays and last minute changes in the product. I ended up buying stock instead.

Move forward a bit and realizing that this stock might pay for a car, I didn't feel as bad and put a reservation in for the Model X. There is another difference for me in that my wife is a big fan of an X and wasn't totally thrilled with the S. I still go back and forth every week wondering if the X is the right car for me. It will still be more money than I think makes sense for a car and at the end, the car I really want is the smaller model 3. Then I realize that I could wait 2-3+ more years on a model 3 and be writing this same email then....

I am going to wait and see what the Model X will be like. At that time, without another Tesla to drive, I just really want to have one to drive. I hope to eventually give this one to my wife and drive a model 3 and will once again wonder if it makes sense to pay that much money for it....

At the end, it is all about what you are comfortable with and in your case, if two Teslas is enough . For me, I will wait until it is available and take it from there.

 

[O-G]

I think I've been waiting longer than most anyone here. Made the reservation in February 2012. My biggest concern about all the delays is that I have far more miles on my BMX X5 than I would ever have put on a car and kept driving it. I can only hope it survives until August (Hopefully August). I see many comments about the price of the Tesla S or X. In my view, I'm prepaying for about $50K in fuel savings. I put a lot of miles on a car and over the next 8 years, that's how much I will save over any alternate comparable vehicle. Not that I think anything out there is comparable, that's another benefit, driving the best car on the road. I can't imagine giving up my reservation at this point.

 

[Gerasimental]

They will release their beta X and call them founders late this year and they will start delivering Sigs in 2016. When they say late 2015, they mean 10 cars just like when they said July 2012 they meant only 10 cars. By June, there will be new falcon door designs, new seats, and new parts all over the place.

I fully understand that you're annoyed, particularly with the sig S and the two long delays now. But really there is absolutely NO reason to believe that Model X won't be delivered by the thousands this year. If they weren't absolutely positive, they wouldn't be sending 'secret' mules around for the world to see and wouldn't count 5k MX into 2015 guidance.
About new parts etc. I sincerely hope that the reason for X delay is PRECISELY to avoid having a re-run of what happened with Model S. Design, development, production, and CC of MX is no bigger a project than it is for MS, and yet it has taken longer despite the staff having grown substantially in experience and size. Similarly they have a huge amount of customer feedback that they didnt have before the 1st MS were delivered.
These factors make me think that a re-run of the somewhat chaotic first year of MS' existence is highly unlikely for MX.

Best of luck whatever you choose!

 

[walla2]

But really there is absolutely NO reason to believe that Model X won't be delivered by the thousands this year.

Best of luck whatever you choose!

There was no reason to believe in a delay in the S, but it happened many times. There was no reason to think the X would be delayed until q4 2015, but it happened. I can't see more X's getting out than the first year of the S with one factory line making both and the X only a mule at this point. At least, the S had some real betas out and about at this point in 2012 and not that shabby thing with the weird looking unrefined doors on it.

I do plan to keep my reservation but am less committed about signing the final deal when it arrives. If anything looks like the initial S push, I'll undoubtedly be looking more at demos or used cars.

 

[bluenation]

"patience is a virtue"

by which i mean, wait a couple more years before plunging in.

one of the most important life lessons. ignore at your own peril.