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Discussion in 'Model 3' started by nogassnorlax, Aug 26, 2018.
Would like to know, thanks!
Do a search this horse has been beaten to death.
Take delivery by year’s end for full $7500 credit after that credit drops to $3750 assuming it isn’t cut out of next budget.
Since the deadline is for delivery it's best if you order ASAP.
Sorry for not being clear but what I meant was the date, not when it ends. For example it says delivery could be 2-4 months. So if I order now on 8/26, I would receive the Model 3 no later than 12/26. So in theory does that mean I only have a couple more days left?
I live on the east coast and I heard they prioritize the west coast first not sure if that's true or not
You can't know for sure when you'll get it based on the estimate. If it gets pushed back in your 12/26 example and you take possession 1/2, then you get the halved credit. That's close IMO, but it's the best you can do, so out of your hands. All you can do is order ASAP and hope for the best. Edits to your order can also push it back. What version are you looking to get, RWD?
RWD, probably good for this year
AWD, maybe this year
Standard Batteries, next year with some credit
Do you have any reservation at all? If you want to improve your chances of getting the car this year and are entering the queue spring for the Performance version. Tesla is prioritizing delivery of those.
So hard to say when particular vehicles will reach the midwest. In the past for Model Ss there was a pattern of last month of the quarter more cars directed to the west coast, international tended to go out first month of the quarter with other nationwide deliveries more second month of quarter, but from the delivery spread sheet from last year there was a mix throughout the quarter. But with the Model 3 who can say. Way more Model 3s being manufactured above Model S&Xs so they need to move them out as storage is at a premium near the factory. Also Canadian orders have been shipping I believe but no international yet. While I think location is important for them for batching to be economical from a logistics standpoint, it also depends on what color/trim you go with and what version of Model 3 they are producing and in what run order. They do give preference to previous Tesla owner orders, and date of reservation and date of order too. From our past experience with our Model S and with our current Model 3 order, they have been pretty right on with their estimates. Got our Model S a few weeks early in March (west coast) and been contacted to complete paperwork and get ready for our Model 3 already and we have a Sept-Nov. time frame, are current owners and ordered within hours of when the AWD became orderable for us, so had hoped for early in the window and that's looking to be true. You should be competing for delivery time slot with other similar orders being placed around now based on the above.
Personally I wouldn't wait to order if you want to get in under the end of year full federal credit. You can possibly arrange your delivery window when it's close to delivery time but might not be any guarantees on that.
BTW don't consider Michigan east coast more midwest.
Model 3 LR 99.9% this year. Delivery will be most likely within 35 days.
Model 3 LR AWD and you have a reservation or owner priority: 99% this year. Delivery will be most likely by 7 Nov 2018.
Model 3 LR AWD and you don't have a reservation or owner priority: 50% this year. Delivery will be most likely after Dec 15th.
For more details see the VIN Queue tab here.
M3P. 100% this year
I’m trying to get the AWD and I have no reservations
There are people who reserved 3/31/16 and finalized their order in May/June who are still waiting.
How are other people that ordered this year already got theirs?
I'd put your order in asap in that case and hope for delivery by year end.
Currently, calculations show that if you order an AWD now, you should get a VIN by 16 Nov 2018 and VIN to delivery would take 21 days for Michigan which means your delivery estimate would be 7 Dec 2018.
The problem is that people who have a reservation or who have owner priority can still order in September or November and their order is expected to be processed before you. That has a negative effect on your delivery estimate. However, Tesla is slowly increasing AWD production. That has a positive effect.
By the way, AWD production for reservation holders who have already placed an order is expected to finish on 23 Oct 2018, excluding reservation holders who have not ordered yet. The top section of the large tables in the VIN Queue tab here shows the 100% completion date for each group. The dates shown here are calculated dynamically and the calculation includes the number of new orders added every day as well as Tesla's AWD production rate and how it increases over time.
Deliveries are prioritized by your order date and also the configuration of your order. Even the color of the interior can delay deliveries.
If you want the best chance of getting the rebate, you should contact Tesla and see which configurations will be rolling out first.
Things are getting down to the wire for getting deliveries prior to end of the year.
There is also a massive amount of people that have been waiting for the last moment to place their orders. Some of them are bound to be disappointed.
Tesla only provides best estimates of when your car may be delivered. Some will come earlier and others later. They have the reputation of being overly optimistic on production schedules.
Just think what would happen if there was a trucking strike near the end of the year. Many things are outside their control.
...or bad weather impacting deliveries across country.
nogassnorlax you have your answer there, don't waste your time reading posts with percentages and dates in them by someone that is just guessing. You won't get a more accurate answer than order ASAP and hope.
1. $69,000 Performance with Performance Upgrade (Yo dawg, we heard you like performance with your performance so we added more performance)
2. $64,000 Performance
3. $54,000 AWD "all in" AWD + PUP + LR
The higher up that list you order from the quicker you'll get it, other than that order and hope.
The table on the left shows LR AWD VIN waiters without a reservation, the table on the right with a reservation. Currently, Tesla is processing LR AWD orders by reservation holders and owners. For this group, the reservation date, the configuration date, wheel choice, color choice all are irrelevant. Based on my calculation, production for this group will finish on 23 Oct 2018. Afterward, Tesla will continue with the other group that doesn't have a reservation or owner priority. Production for that group is expected to start on 23 Oct and continue until 16 Nov. On top of those dates, you need to add 5 to 35 days VIN to delivery time depending on the state.
There are two factors that affect the 23 Oct-16 Nov timeline:
1. New orders are still coming in by reservation holders. The last few rows of the table on the right are orders placed in August and some of them have already their VIN. See the VIN Queue tab here.
2. Tesla is increasing AWD production and decreasing RWD production. During the last 3 weeks, Tesla made 1428, 2317 and 3199 AWD cars per week. See the Production tab here.
For Model 3 LR orders, having a reservation or not doesn't make a difference because the queue is very short and everybody gets a VIN quickly. The only thing that matters for this group is the configuration date. Just by looking at that table here in the VIN Queue tab in column W, you can see that it is processed by configuration date.
The information I have posted is a calculated estimate based on the current data. As the data changes, the estimates will change dynamically. My estimates are based on VIN numbers and other data reported by buyers in the Model 3 Order Tracker spreadsheet. If you want to see the accuracy of my estimates, check out the results of the mini competition here at the end of Q2 which was about estimating production and delivery numbers for the quarter. There will be a similar competition at the end of this quarter.