My problem is that I'm just not cut out to be a trader, and never intended to be. It's only the unexpectedly massive success of Tesla that's thrust me into this position because as long as it was in the hundreds I could just say "I'm never going to sell so the price doesn't matter." But then it's suddenly in the thousands and my brain goes "WHAAAAAA???" and has a melt-down.
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Thinking of selling some of my shares, undecided
- Thread starter daniel
- Start date
My problem is that I'm just not cut out to be a trader, and never intended to be. It's only the unexpectedly massive success of Tesla that's thrust me into this position because as long as it was in the hundreds I could just say "I'm never going to sell so the price doesn't matter." But then it's suddenly in the thousands and my brain goes "WHAAAAAA???" and has a melt-down.
electricar
Member
And you made a lot of money on the stock; just imagine what Jim Chanos, Mark Spiegel, Gordon Johnson, Andrew Left, and David Einhorn are saying.
What I'm doing is the opposite of dollar cost average buying the dips. I've got preset orders at multiple tranches to average out my sells. I set orders for 10% of my shares at reasonable prices that I wouldn't mind selling. For example, I sold every $100 from $15**.** upwards. These sells if they keep going to planned upper limit will be about 10% of my holdings. I have another 10% at much frothier levels if we get there in short order. I'm not able to trade regularly with my day job, so this is my way of ensuring I have a plan. The money from these sells aren't life changing, but it will enhance my current day to day situation. We have a planned home renovation upcoming, and I can take my better half to a nicer restaurant and enjoy the moment.
Falling like a rock. From a peak of just over $500 it's now under $400. That's a 20% drop!!! Wish I'd sold some at $500. Of course I'll change my mind if it goes back up and breaks $500 again. This has always been an extremely volatile stock. I need to just stop looking at it!
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I don't think you're seriously considering a shift from "invest a few bucks to be part of something you believe in" to "day trading".
Diversification is really important to you, as is avoiding risk. Have you stopped being diversified by being invested in mutual funds, index funds, etc...? My impression is that your TSLA investment hasn't changed - a few bucks early on to be part of something. The fact that it's grown to be a big number doesn't change the size of your original investment, or your reason for the investment?
So yes, it's a big number. But does that matter?
This observation looks like to me like something that comes out of a "time the market" mind set. My own view of a long term buy and hold, or buy a few shares to be part of something you believe in, is that the price at any moment in time is irrelevant (unless the total position can / does change your life in a vector that is important to you).
Rather than "time the market", the question I would ask is:
1) has your original intent when you bought some TSLA changed?
2) has the value of the position increased enough to change your life?
if either answer is yes, then the time to sell is now. Let it go and enjoy the rewards of your investment, or let it go because what you believed in back then has changed and/or you know longer believe that TSLA satisfies your original intent (buy a few shares to be a part of something you want to be a part of).
Either way, the price today doesn't matter - the reason you got in has been realized.
The way I look at it, as a long term buy and hold investor, the share price doesn't matter (until it changes your life). What matters is whether the company is still doing what you invested in. The moment it stops satisfying your investment criteria, then you're out. The price at that moment doesn't matter - you're now invested in something you don't believe in. It really is that simple (for me at least! your mileage may vary).
My guess is that you're still getting what you were looking for when you put a few bucks in (be a part of something you believe in). So sit back and enjoy the ride - whether there's a few more 0's on the end of your original investment, it's still the original investment and the original purpose is still there. And you're still diversified, so the amount of money on the line hasn't changed.
And someday (which could be today), maybe the amount of your 'be part of something' investment is enough that it moves the needle on your financial life (woot!) and it's time to sell and enjoy that outcome.
Everything you say is absolutely 100% true. And no, I'm not a day-trader. And no, selling out, even when it was momentarily at $500 would not change my life, and my real investments are still diversified.
It's just that it feels like somebody mugged me in reverse: They grabbed me and violently shoved an enormous bag of money into my hands and ran off, and then after I'd walked a couple of blocks with it, they returned and grabbed it out of my hands, took a fifth of the money out, and gave me back the bag. You know that you have a shot-ton of money you didn't have before, but you can't help wishing you'd gotten to the bank with it before they came back to take some of it away again.
It's a roller coaster ride and I can't bring myself to stop looking over the side. It's stupid to think this way, but it's like trying to not think of a pink and purple elephant.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Maybe this will help - if you're like me, then you think that TSLA will be worth more BECAUSE of the products, strategy and execution over the next 10 years. In my case, I think that 10x from here is not just reasonable, but also likely (which doesn't make me right, but I do think it's likely).
If you share that view then today's share price - whether it is $200, $400, $600, $6000, or $10; it's all irrelevant. It's standard TSLA volatility and it just doesn't matter.
In my particular case, it does matter a lot around $800 (and probably already around $400) as that turns into a big enough portfolio to retire early and more comfortably than I've ever thought likely. That's where the "life changing" criteria comes in. And even after retirement, I'll continue being invested in TSLA, but that's because I look at the broader market and macro and I don't see anything safer to be invested in (seriously - including US government issued debt, aka cash -- a conversation for another time).
If you look far enough back in my posting history (sometime last year), you'll see me saying the same thing back in the $200s and $300s (pre-split); split adjusted $40 to $60. It didn't matter then if the shares were $20, $40, $60, or $600; as long as the reason for the investment continues to be true.
And the moment it stops being true, then the price STILL doesn't matter, because the investment gets dropped like a hot potato. This, to me, is what long term buy and hold investing means.
I guess another way of looking at it - in my argument, unrealized / paper gains are no more real than unrealized / paper losses are real. They are "real", but neither of them matter. This is very long term buy and hold centric; if you're investing on most anything under a 2 year investment horizon, then I do think these unrealized gains and losses matter.
But that's not what we're doing, eh? It can be a tough thing to wrap your brain around (for anybody). If you can somehow go back to the first 7 years of your approach to investing in Tesla (seeing the share price like 3-6 times per year?), then you'll be to being in tune with your original investment approach (and more likely to benefit from the next 10x from here when / if that happens). MHO - the only reason to change one's original investment is because you're changing your investment approach and/or the original investment thesis has changed (better or worse).
Maybe ... it's time to invest MORE in TSLA!
Again, all 100% true. Except that I'm not investing any more in TSLA. I never really "invested" in TSLA in the first place, and that's the problem: I bought a few shares to feel like I'm part of the company that's making electric transportation happen. Suddenly, it's an "investment" and way more than I'd ever put in a single issue.
As for ten years, well, I might still be around in ten years... There's one old guy in one of my paddling clubs who's ten years older than me. But I'm not counting on it.
Mainly I want the world to stop burning fossil fuel and switch to renewably-generated electricity. (My car is powered by the sun! Whoopee!)
adiggs
Well-Known Member
adiggs
Well-Known Member
My way of saying that I think you answered your own original question.
You've got what, from some point of view, is a windfall in hand. A small amount of money spent more for the connection to something important to you has accomplished that objective (getting you connected), and as a bonus - turned into a lot of money.
You COULD spend it on an actual party, but I sort of doubt that's what is important to you.
I can't even dream of what you'll do with it. Up to and including, just hanging onto it - maybe to pass along to the next generation or to make a charity of your choice very happy. Or get yourself one of those new Roadsters when they come along -- that could be fun
Choices, choices. And thus - time to party. All of the available choices and their outcomes look good to me, from out here in the cheap seats.
I grant that I might not be expressing myself well!
I sure wish now that I'd sold a bunch when it hit $500.
You better sell next time we hit $500.
How about we just let this post die...it has zero useful information.
Just don't read it. I put this in its own thread so nobody has to see it and it doesn't interfere with any other conversation. I often quit reading threads and use the "Unwatch" button when I lose interest in a thread.
Have a wonderful day.
mickificki
Member
It’s a smidge under $3000 now.
Yeah. I've posted elsewhere that I'm a lousy investor. Mostly I buy high and sell low. Which is why my real investments, the ones I live off of, are low-cost mutual funds that pay interest and dividends, that I just buy and hold. TSLA is the sole exception. On the plus side, the shares I sold were 46 times what I paid, and were only 1/3 of my position, and if Tesla were to go bankrupt now, I still made a shot-ton of money. I'm holding onto the other 2/3, which is the position I originally bought. The shares I sold were the number I got when SCTY converted to TSLA.
Also on the plus side is understanding through experience what it feels like to ride an investment roller coaster: Every time it takes a big jump you ask yourself if this is the pinnacle, and time to cash out. I'll bet there were people who bought BTC at $1 and sold at $100, thinking "Wow, I made so much money!" and then cried in their beer when it hit $20,000.
And lastly there's the fact that TSLA pays no dividends and is unlikely to in my lifetime. It could hit $100,000 and it does us no good until we sell. It's value is just on paper until then. So I don't feel so bad. I took some profit and still have 2/3 of my former position. And the thing that really matters is that the company is succeeding at building and selling electric cars, which is why I bought those shares in the first place. I loved my Roadster, which was my daily driver for 6 years, and I love my Model 3 now, with EAP. So it's all good.
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