ValueAnalyst
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Sorry I should have clarified: That's my personal understanding/estimate based on the VIN # discussion in these threads, and recent additional deliveries in Texas and Florida.
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Third quarter deliveries 2017
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Sorry I should have clarified: That's my personal understanding/estimate based on the VIN # discussion in these threads, and recent additional deliveries in Texas and Florida.
dennis
Model S Plaid
While we have seen accounts of many deliveries in the 0-99 and 100-199 range, and some in the 200-299 and 300-399 range, we haven't seen a single 4XX delivery. My conclusion is that M3 deliveries thus far have been <400. I expect that to change this week.
Me too, I am thinking about 200 delivered so far, which is behind from what I was hoping when I made my 30k estimate. Even with a good push for the last week, I fear we'll stop far short of 1000, let alone 1500 M3 for the quarter. To avoid a market freakout, I do think they will clarify their delivery numbers by also giving information on production.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
To be clear: I don't think 1,000, or even a bit below, is not meeting guidance by any stretch of imagination. Deliveries follow production by ~1-2 weeks, yes? As long as Tesla produces above 1,500-1,600 in 3Q17, they've met guidance.
More importantly, however, it would be helpful for market participants if Tesla did two things:
- Put some meat around 4Q17 guidance, for example, "more than 30,000 Model 3's will be delivered""
- Better define by which quarter it expects to achieve 10,000 Model 3's per week. Despite Elon's declaration "What people should absolutely have zero concern about — zero — is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000-unit production week by the end of next year," market participants are still very heavily discounting Tesla's projected ramp. Any color around this ramp (i.e. timing, profitability milestones, bottlenecks to reach 10,000 per week and what Tesla has done to resolve them, discussion of risks and steps Tesla has taken to mitigate them and so on) would go a long way in showing investors that Tesla is on track to achieve them. Words alone are clearly not enough.
Thank you for sharing your view; I appreciate it. I would note, however, that not everyone posts their VIN # on the Internet. So the numbers we would normally conclude by tracking at VIN #'s should be regarded as a minimum, so it's difficult to put a ceiling (i.e. <400) on the number of Model 3's delivered thus far.
I think this was the primary reason behind the SP drop last week. Next few weeks are important.
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MX: Q4 was 9500, Q1 was 11550 and Q2 was 10050
What's the catalyst for an upward reversal?
While Norway Sept. looks really good, it may not surpass June for MX deliveries. 80 more this week certainly is possible, depending on what this latest push entails (recent ship coming in, pushing out inventory, 90D model discounting, etc) A poster from Norway indicted that people have started choosing Model S to make sure they get incentives versus waiting for late 2018 for their Model 3. this is why I think we see the ramp in MS deliveries late in Q3 and many in the 75 series products.
By the way - I have seen Norway cars "registered" and then come up as "new for sale" a quarter later. So, a registration does not always equal a sale.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
IIRC, deliveries (and possibly MX specifically) were affected by shortage in high-capacity battery shortage in 2Q.
Search data shows significant increase in demand for MX in 3Q, approaching ~85% of Model S demand level.
I think 3Q will show a surprising rise in Model X deliveries.
dennis
Model S Plaid
And let's not forget that in Q2 Tesla did 1000-2000 Model X inventory builds to be used as demo and test drive cars in the stores. So it is not surprising that there is additional Model X demand in Q3.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Exactly. And I think we tend to forget that the ever-expanding Supercharger and sales/service coverage is an ongoing boost to demand.
I believe the phrase "Tesla does not have a demand problem" more than ever. It just needs to ramp up production as quickly/reliably as possible.
All the pieces are in place; it's just about execution. This is Tesla's game to lose. Elon & Team should ignore the FUD and focus.
I was referring to the bizarre "MX decline in hot Norway" comment. Not worldwide MX sales.
For more color on the numbers, bear in mind that 97 MX were delivered this past Friday alone, so yes I believe that 80 delivered over the next week is manageable
Regarding Model 3 deliveries:
My complete wild guess is that the production line is not in place yet (or some supply is not in place, could it be the batteries?). As people say the few hundred we saw are most likely on the pilot line. I will only have confidence on the full production line once we see 1XXX VIN and beyond. There is not even a sign of 4XX yet.
Early this year I used to argue that with Model 3 the complexity moved from the car to the production line, as Musk is trying to robot automate ever more steps. So the production ramp is highly unpredictable. It's not like complexity went away with simpler design, it just moved up to the factory line... I stopped arguing that as Musk provided ever more confidence on the ramp over time, going all the way to giving guidance on monthly time frames.
As time is passing by I feel that this too is just another example of Musk's over promise (delusional thinking as he calls it). We are still not past the TE ramp and EAP ramp that he promised way back.
However I certainly hope that we will see some big Model 3 numbers soon. As this ramp is far more important than any prior ramp as costs pile up very dramatically and revenue needs to catch-up soon.
My complete wild guess is that the production line is not in place yet (or some supply is not in place, could it be the batteries?). As people say the few hundred we saw are most likely on the pilot line. I will only have confidence on the full production line once we see 1XXX VIN and beyond. There is not even a sign of 4XX yet.
Early this year I used to argue that with Model 3 the complexity moved from the car to the production line, as Musk is trying to robot automate ever more steps. So the production ramp is highly unpredictable. It's not like complexity went away with simpler design, it just moved up to the factory line... I stopped arguing that as Musk provided ever more confidence on the ramp over time, going all the way to giving guidance on monthly time frames.
As time is passing by I feel that this too is just another example of Musk's over promise (delusional thinking as he calls it). We are still not past the TE ramp and EAP ramp that he promised way back.
However I certainly hope that we will see some big Model 3 numbers soon. As this ramp is far more important than any prior ramp as costs pile up very dramatically and revenue needs to catch-up soon.
I was referring to the bizarre "MX decline in hot Norway" comment. Not worldwide MX sales.
For more color on the numbers, bear in mind that 97 MX were delivered this past Friday alone, so yes I believe that 80 delivered over the next week is manageable
The MX deliveries in the last 7 days have made it "hot" again. However, I do have to wonder if the "mindspace" of Model 3 reservation holders is the reason. meaning, MS and MX 75 size battery deliveries are very good the last few weeks of Sept. These could have been ordered just around the time Model 3 details were announced - and the osborne effect (which is "good" for near-term) is that people ordered up MS 75 and MX 75 instead of waiting on the Model 3 next year for Norway delivery. This will play out to end Q3 and into Q4. Will have to wait and see.
I guess the world has an insatiable appetite for cars costing $75K-140K USD. What a world we live in. Why would they even consider making the Model 3 in that case?
I attempted to produce an estimate based on how Q3 deliveries are tracking in Norway and historical data as follows:
So my prediction is 26,500 to 27,000 deliveries
My calculations (estimated quantities in Blue, historical data - in black):
- Norway estimated deliveries of 1662 cars (MX+MS) (Thank you Lasse Edvardsen!)
- Europe estimated deliveries range based on Norway deliveries making up 18.2% - 25.0% of European deliveries
- US estimated September deliveries range as in June-March of this year
- Asia+Pacific estimated deliveries the same as in Q2
So my prediction is 26,500 to 27,000 deliveries
My calculations (estimated quantities in Blue, historical data - in black):
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Current Norway total is 1617, but with 4 days to go & around 100 deliveries per day (conservative average), shouldn't estimated be closer to 2000 for Norway?
I see current total of 1,262 and assumed 4 days of at least 100 registration per day. I also assumed that on the last day of the quarter - Saturday - delivery team in Norway will be able to catch up with all registrations issued as of Friday.
You need to add July and August numbers to your q3 total for Norway
I am skeptical about 1500 in Sept. But, (a reminder this is a PRODUCED number 1500) while it is frustrating that we are not seeing high vins, our data sample size might just be too low. With S and X civilians were getting them and were eager to talk about them. With the 3, the opposite is true. The "German tank problem" requires SOME data. We might really just be whiffing on the VIN's out there.
Also, didn't they essentially produce the 1-300 VINS twice? So if the highest VIN we had ever seen was 300 (this is a hypothetical) all we would know for sure is that total produced is between ~50 and 600, since some of those VIN's could have both RC and production VIN plates.
Finally, since the metric is produced cars, they could have somewhere between zero and infinity on trucks, boats and in factory staging areas and we wouldn't know.
None of this proves a good or bad delivery number. But I suspect our DATA this time is unusually useless. And, of course, THIS WAS BY DESIGN. The whole plan was to keep a lid on early deliveries to keep bugs and rampant software updates in the family. The side effect is that we don't have VIN feedback. Tesla would not think this is a bug, since they fully intend to update us Oct 3.
Yes - Thank you!
And now I get @jim1980 point as well.
So according to updated spreadsheet, I should revise my prediction to 28,250 to 28,750 deliveries.
Edit: US deliveries are based on InsideEVs data
ValueAnalyst
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
This makes sense. Most of the early production is going to employees with the understanding there was no beta, so having everything just exactly perfect is not a priority. Logically they would run that production off the line to hit numbers(and get feedback) if they could. Doesn't feel like that's happening.
Perhaps a buying opportunity is on the horizon?
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