We care because we care about the short/medium term stock price movements.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Third quarter deliveries 2017
- Thread starter schonelucht
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
I haven't gone through things in detail myself but I'll make one guess: I think that the stationary storage installations are finally going to start being noticeable in the financials this quarter. It's just a hunch.
Would be nice if they already could record revenue for the Australian project.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
We need to start incorporating Tesla Energy estimates to these quarterly delivery threads.
Agreed 110%.
Why wouldn't they?? Why do you think Tesla scheduled the party before month-end??
Agreed 110%.
Why wouldn't they?? Why do you think Tesla scheduled the party before month-end??
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Whether Tesla delivered 300 or 500 or 1,000 Model 3's in 3Q will not drive SP beyond one day. 3Q17 is the quarter of Model X and Tesla Energy.
People who are wringing their hands today are the same people worrying the day after 1Q17 earnings and the day before 2Q17 earnings: chartists.
And FUDsters are using these charts to manipulate emotions at TMC and elsewhere.
In contrast, I published a blog post the day after 1Q17 earnings, when TSLA "broke down below $300," titled: 1Q17 Results: Buying Opportunity.
Last edited:
dc_h
Active Member
I think the delivery numbers are important in the medium term, combined with some traction at TE. Aggressive sales to offset the margin impact of the Model 3 startup are helpful to limit the cash flow hit in Q3 & 4. The capex impact starts to hit this quarter, which is not huge, compared to the costs of the line installation and new hires required to run the new line hit, without the bonus of sales. Shorts will be selling the cash flow hit, and I think Tesla is going to sell everything it can this quarter to limit the GM impact. Q3 S/X sales are likely higher then Q4, when Model 3 sales and TE picks up and those margins start improving. Margins should be helped by the falling dollar. Europe sales have been helped by low interest rates, but no price reductions. S/X sales could continue to benefit in Europe and China if the 3 is not available til end of 2018 and early 2019, and with expected refresh in Q4.
I think 28000 to 30000 for Q3 and possibly a drop to 25000 S/X plus 10000 to 25000 Model 3s' in Q4.
I think 28000 to 30000 for Q3 and possibly a drop to 25000 S/X plus 10000 to 25000 Model 3s' in Q4.
making the corrections you pointed out, i posted a more complete view of my model in the general forum. thanks very much.
2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
i keep my base estimate in the 25.8k range. i think the lowest reasonable estimate is probably around 24.8k matching q3 2016.
2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
i keep my base estimate in the 25.8k range. i think the lowest reasonable estimate is probably around 24.8k matching q3 2016.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Instagram post by Colin Dougherty • Sep 28, 2017 at 3:38pm UTC
VIN 454 delivered. Maybe we'll get 400 deliveries and 750 produced?
VIN 454 delivered. Maybe we'll get 400 deliveries and 750 produced?
dc_h
Active Member
Looks like Europe could be a record quarter. If Norway the rest of Europe equals last June (3rd month of Q2), Europe would be about 6400. If they sell just a bit more anywhere else, they can beat Q1 record of 6641. Tesla should get some bonus margin due to falling dollar, which could be an added 5% margin. Overall margins are going to be tough with limited Model 3 deliveries, but if the rest of world is anything like Europe, they should be over 26500 in deliveries. Deliveries last quarter were 3000 below production and with signs of old inventory getting sold in Norway, they may have reduced inventory significantly from last quarter.
Mike Smith
Active Member
"It’s not clear if Tesla is on track to meet these numbers, but an inside source tells Teslarati that Model 3 production is ahead of forecasts and early reservation holders will soon receive an email invitation to configure their Model 3."
Rare photo of a Tesla Model 3 on the factory production line surfaces
Rare photo of a Tesla Model 3 on the factory production line surfaces
dc_h
Active Member
And M3 VIN 434 showing up today, and reports of 3's being shipped in closed trucks. I'm still not optimistic about stock, but with the TE Australia event tomorrow morning maybe we can break the down cycle by next week.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Hmmm, I haven't followed up deliveries since April, but VIN spread I'm seeing today on ev-cpo is shockingly high.
I was quite negative about this quarter and number of M3s.
My experience has been that when Tesla is quiet, (and people offer optimistic explanations), that's because Tesla is in trouble and not because it cooks revenge on shorts.
Having said that; considering wide VIN spread, higher levels of production vs sales in previous quarter, available discounts on inventory cars, and general price drop on the whole S/X line, and all the free marketing they're getting with Model 3 while lots of inventory was available; considering all of that; is it possible they're cooking 30K+ quarter? Lots of crumbles, but it certainly could be wishful thinking...
I am not known to be optimistic... Glass half empty kind of a guy here...
I was quite negative about this quarter and number of M3s.
My experience has been that when Tesla is quiet, (and people offer optimistic explanations), that's because Tesla is in trouble and not because it cooks revenge on shorts.
Having said that; considering wide VIN spread, higher levels of production vs sales in previous quarter, available discounts on inventory cars, and general price drop on the whole S/X line, and all the free marketing they're getting with Model 3 while lots of inventory was available; considering all of that; is it possible they're cooking 30K+ quarter? Lots of crumbles, but it certainly could be wishful thinking...
I am not known to be optimistic... Glass half empty kind of a guy here...
Just thinking out loud. The increased flow of cars to Norway (and possibly Europe) may be a play by Tesla to position themselves better for phase-out period of the US federal incentives. Remember, current projections have them delivering car 200k in the US just around new year. The absolute best day to deliver that car would be 1/1/18. Worst day would be 31/12/17. Shifting production towards Norway for a few months may just be what it takes to end up on the right side of the divide.
If they were to do so in Q4 by for example not delivering US cars in December it would dip delivery numbers for Q4 quite heavily. But you are right that with the uncertain nature of the Model 3 ramp up they more likely have no good idea of how the numbers will fall regardless.
I’d question European orders. I track uk inventory cars closely, and there’s a marked increase in new inventory on the books over the last quarter that are unsold. Tesla don’t publish all the used inventory so it’s hard to be sure but if you know the vin you can check the car, and numbers have increased by hundreds. Tesla have about 500 cars in the uk (new and usd, which suggests existing owners buying new, but fewer new owners), that translates to 25k world wide if extrapolated.
Two theories, either price rises last year and M3 coming soon are both slowing down interest and certainly price cuts, new inventory discounts etc all support that. Negative sentiment.
Or the positive sentiment is while sales are still strong, production volume has increased even more enabling more sales options, overheads have reduced enabling the lower prices etc. Be a good place to be.
Unfortunately I a more in the negative camp. The MS and MX are flatlining.
Two theories, either price rises last year and M3 coming soon are both slowing down interest and certainly price cuts, new inventory discounts etc all support that. Negative sentiment.
Or the positive sentiment is while sales are still strong, production volume has increased even more enabling more sales options, overheads have reduced enabling the lower prices etc. Be a good place to be.
Unfortunately I a more in the negative camp. The MS and MX are flatlining.
Mike Smith
Active Member
That's a pretty big leap to get from UK inventory to a global sales number.
Ah, sorry, my maths was crooked, Uk is about 4% of sales, the If in ‘if extrapolated’ is still a a fairly big one, and more like 12k, but still significant. The various cpo sites all have many cars, and again based on the UK position, they only see a portion of the cars I’ve found in the uk through various techniques (I used to a forensic data guy) Compare my numbers in the link below (which are uk only) to the other well respected cpo sites and you’ll see a big difference
Tesla MS and MX cars for sale in the UK
Last edited:
@JonG : I track inventories as well but quite sparsely sampled too. I have them falling but similarly it's a big leap to extrapolate that to global inventories. Just to align our data a bit : did you see those UK inventories increase over the quarter or more suddenly the last few weeks? If the latter that could spell some bad news if it turns out inventories were on ship and are only now becoming visible at arrival. Previously hidden inventories were already queryable when they were still in transit.
It would be a big disappointment if it turns out that inventories increased again this quarter.
It would be a big disappointment if it turns out that inventories increased again this quarter.
Hard to tell, Tesla appeared fairly good at showing all their inventory up to about a month ago, then they changed to showing only a sample, they've done that before, only for it to return a few days later. They've not done that this time so you have to be creative, by hitting the vins around known UK cars you discover more, and then I've kept repeating the trick and every time I find more and more, but I've only been aggressively doing that for a couple of weeks so it could be they've appeared over the last 6 weeks, or its a sudden rush.
What I have also seen is that the New inventory cars (with 50 miles) are now appearing on the Used inventory urls - maybe they did before and I'd not tried, but if they've bulk registered cars, then they've done that a lot in the UK in this quarter, getting on enough to double the normal sales volume.
I'm hoping they'll report maybe a 20% increase in sales, which in reality is probably no real increase but its not a fall. My worry is I can see almost 1 in 10 of ALL cars sold in the UK are sitting in Tesla stock. That's not good.
What I have also seen is that the New inventory cars (with 50 miles) are now appearing on the Used inventory urls - maybe they did before and I'd not tried, but if they've bulk registered cars, then they've done that a lot in the UK in this quarter, getting on enough to double the normal sales volume.
I'm hoping they'll report maybe a 20% increase in sales, which in reality is probably no real increase but its not a fall. My worry is I can see almost 1 in 10 of ALL cars sold in the UK are sitting in Tesla stock. That's not good.
Similar threads
