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Third quarter deliveries 2017

Total deliveries in third quarter 2017 (S+X+3)


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What I have also seen is that the New inventory cars (with 50 miles) are now appearing on the Used inventory urls - maybe they did before and I'd not tried, but if they've bulk registered cars, then they've done that a lot in the UK in this quarter, getting on enough to double the normal sales volume.

I'm hoping they'll report maybe a 20% increase in sales, which in reality is probably no real increase but its not a fall. My worry is I can see almost 1 in 10 of ALL cars sold in the UK are sitting in Tesla stock. That's not good.

I wonder, does anyone know if a similar thing happened ahead of AP2 last year, or the Model S nose change/facelift?
 
Anyone in UK or Europe talking to Tesla stores and ask how deliberate going? Heard on one thread Netherlands was doing well. Is U.K. A probe, or just lots of inventory prepping for model change and lagging production of new car. If there's a refresh right hand drive may not be available for a full quarter.
Model S thread seems busy and Tesla seems to be getting product shipped faster then ever.
 
Anyone in UK or Europe talking to Tesla stores and ask how deliberate going? Heard on one thread Netherlands was doing well. Is U.K. A probe, or just lots of inventory prepping for model change and lagging production of new car. If there's a refresh right hand drive may not be available for a full quarter.
Model S thread seems busy and Tesla seems to be getting product shipped faster then ever.

We don't know and we'd be speculating. The service centres look busy, but then they have a lot of warranty repairs going through them so people are there constantly. There's also a lot of people going in to see what the fuss is about. You can make a case for anything really. I do know two years ago you were looking at custom order only and a 4 month wait in the UK, last year new inventory was the luck of a cancelled order, today there's a great deal of choice. That suggests production is out performing demand, but doesn't necessarily mean demand is falling, they could both be rising, just one faster than the other.

I do worry though that there is going to be a major correction in pricing. My last Tesla went back (company car and I left the company) and I started collecting data to work out when to buy. I found myself looking at an 80k Tesla and a 40k used BMW M6 Gran Coupe (lets not debate the better car) and my wife looked at me and asked if I was serious about spending twice on a used P90DL. I think they'll need to drift down another 20% like they did over the summer to start shifting in volume. The UK is sitting on something like $40M of stock and its about 4% of Tesla turnover. what would that make world wide stock holding if extrapolated, $1B? ($1,000M - different places call a billion different amounts).
 
Not many cars delivered in Norway when you see the "big picture", but our population is only 5 million.

Looks like we're gonna hit 2.000 deliveries this September :) -----> Tesla Registration Stats

Hoping to beat VW Golf (very popular in Norway): Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge

upload_2017-9-29_22-31-28.png
 
Not many cars delivered in Norway when you see the "big picture", but our population is only 5 million.

Looks like we're gonna hit 2.000 deliveries this September :) -----> Tesla Registration Stats

Hoping to beat VW Golf (very popular in Norway): Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge

View attachment 250793
I am intrigued about this discrepancy between the site you keep quoting and the itanywhere.no stats - both should be based on the same data. However itanywhere September data (Model S Model X) shows 728 for both S and X right now- which may look like an odd coincidence, but when you dump the dailies into Excel it's completely different counts for both models day to day, so this may indeed be just a coincidence. Will be interesting to see the official Norwegian data next week to find out which site was right.

Either way it looks like a super strong month/quarter.
 
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We don't know and we'd be speculating. The service centres look busy, but then they have a lot of warranty repairs going through them so people are there constantly. There's also a lot of people going in to see what the fuss is about. You can make a case for anything really. I do know two years ago you were looking at custom order only and a 4 month wait in the UK, last year new inventory was the luck of a cancelled order, today there's a great deal of choice. That suggests production is out performing demand, but doesn't necessarily mean demand is falling, they could both be rising, just one faster than the other.

I do worry though that there is going to be a major correction in pricing. My last Tesla went back (company car and I left the company) and I started collecting data to work out when to buy. I found myself looking at an 80k Tesla and a 40k used BMW M6 Gran Coupe (lets not debate the better car) and my wife looked at me and asked if I was serious about spending twice on a used P90DL. I think they'll need to drift down another 20% like they did over the summer to start shifting in volume. The UK is sitting on something like $40M of stock and its about 4% of Tesla turnover. what would that make world wide stock holding if extrapolated, $1B? ($1,000M - different places call a billion different amounts).
Could be effect of the UK pound. Drop against $US will make Tesla less competitive.
Other manufacturers will absorb currency fluctuations and provide smooth transition of pricing over long period of time, Tesla will not (i.e. it's repricing quarterly or so)
 
I am intrigued about this discrepancy between the site you keep quoting and the itanywhere.no stats - both should be based on the same data. However itanywhere September data (Model S Model X) shows 728 for both S and X right now- which may look like an odd coincidence, but when you dump the dailies into Excel it's completely different counts for both models day to day, so this may indeed be just a coincidence. Will be interesting to see the official Norwegian data next week to find out which site was right.

Either way it looks like a super strong month/quarter.

Yes, sorry about that. Both are my sites and they use the same data, but I have a server with a bug and I’ve lost contact with it. This server does not update the Tesla numbers correctly and therefore gives a wrong output on the Teslastats.no page. It the next time a server does a query it corrects the mistake done by the buggy server. You can see now that the numbers are the same and they are updated :)

The official numbers are always a little lower. This is because they do not count imported cars (an imported car is a car not sold as new in Norway aka registered in another country before Norway). Many cars are, because of politics, registered in different countries before they get registered in Norway to “lower” the emission in that country.
 
Yes, sorry about that. Both are my sites and they use the same data, but I have a server with a bug and I’ve lost contact with it. This server does not update the Tesla numbers correctly and therefore gives a wrong output on the Teslastats.no page. It the next time a server does a query it corrects the mistake done by the buggy server. You can see now that the numbers are the same and they are updated :)

The official numbers are always a little lower. This is because they do not count imported cars (an imported car is a car not sold as new in Norway aka registered in another country before Norway). Many cars are, because of politics, registered in different countries before they get registered in Norway to “lower” the emission in that country.
Can I just say a super big THANK YOU for putting those sites together? This is pretty much the only real time data we have worldwide, and while we shouldn't reach global conclusions based on just one country, your sites are super useful when we are trying to read the tea leaves for Europe! ;):D
 
Getting a car wash in Hinsdale at locally famous Fullers and 6 Tesla's were being cleaned. Not sure if for delivery or cleaning up the demo's. I think normal cleaning would be in the service center.
They just pulled up two more X's. They said they bring them here when they get off the truck. So could be some inventory. Gonna be hard to hand them all off today.
X VIN 66659
S VIN 216xxx
 
Can I just say a super big THANK YOU for putting those sites together? This is pretty much the only real time data we have worldwide, and while we shouldn't reach global conclusions based on just one country, your sites are super useful when we are trying to read the tea leaves for Europe! ;):D

Thank you I love feedback. Especially good feedback :) They (we?) made it. 2.000 Tesla’s registered in September :)

254C380C-3049-4C52-B43F-D2AE62DD7529.jpeg
 
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I think GM on S will be 30% and X will likely be over 28%, but model 3 will be zero. SA will have some stories about Tesla losing money on every 3 Tesla sells, but until volume hits 3500 to 4000 cars a week, GM will not hit 20%.

Model 3 GM will be negative in 3Q and 5% in 4Q, at best.

Then it will ramp up quickly in 1Q18 and reach 25% in 2Q18, according to management guidance.
 
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We don't know and we'd be speculating. The service centres look busy, but then they have a lot of warranty repairs going through them so people are there constantly. There's also a lot of people going in to see what the fuss is about. You can make a case for anything really. I do know two years ago you were looking at custom order only and a 4 month wait in the UK, last year new inventory was the luck of a cancelled order, today there's a great deal of choice. That suggests production is out performing demand, but doesn't necessarily mean demand is falling, they could both be rising, just one faster than the other.

I do worry though that there is going to be a major correction in pricing. My last Tesla went back (company car and I left the company) and I started collecting data to work out when to buy. I found myself looking at an 80k Tesla and a 40k used BMW M6 Gran Coupe (lets not debate the better car) and my wife looked at me and asked if I was serious about spending twice on a used P90DL. I think they'll need to drift down another 20% like they did over the summer to start shifting in volume. The UK is sitting on something like $40M of stock and its about 4% of Tesla turnover. what would that make world wide stock holding if extrapolated, $1B? ($1,000M - different places call a billion different amounts).

How has extrapolation of U.K. data worked out in the past? It seems to be too small of a market to have any significance in estimating global inventories.
 
How has extrapolation of U.K. data worked out in the past? It seems to be too small of a market to have any significance in estimating global inventories.

I don’t think you can race to extrapolate or dismiss. The uk gov haven’t done much to change incentives in the last year, they’ve trimmed them back just slightly but not what I’d call significant. Other countries in Europe have seen big swings in volume due to tax changes. I think it as Denmark which had enormous volume one year ahead of it going to near zero the next because of this. One good country figures in Europe therefore is not necessarily a sign of anything more than gov incentives and taxation, you need to look at what’s behind them. The uk figures might be more representative of the underlying sentiment as they’ve not changed. But then it might not matter why, Tesla are making the most of whatever the current market conditions are is a good thing. What I don’t think is happening is a universal significant increase in demand at ms and mx price points. That’s what the 3 is there to help fix as we know.