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Discussion in 'Model X: Battery & Charging' started by EV-lutioin, Jul 24, 2017.
The Tesla Supercharger network, the pride and joy of every Tesla owner, just keeps getting bigger.
It's an impressive positive trend line. Thanks for posting!
Tesla high-speed DC charging locations: 909 (6,118 stalls)
Other car companies high-speed DC charging locations: next to nothing
And it is 4 years since Tesla started building the Supercharger network, 4 years while the other manufacturers sat on their butts and pretended that EV charging was not important.
It's one of those things that convinced me that the other EV makers continued to not "get" EVs. That they continued to see them as something that will be for decades no more than a niche vehicle for hippies looking to drive around in a hair shirt, rather than something that could rapidly become mainstream. And consequently saw nothing wrong with leaving out one of the key aspects of mainstreaming them.
"Oh, you want to go long distances? You don't really want electric, you want hydrogen... that'll be the future, just a couple decades from now!"
"... but if you just cool the cells properly..."
"EVs are for city driving!"
"Hey, look at this new NiMH hybrid! See, we're at the forefront of new technology...."
A lack of foresight into changing trends has serious financial repercussions. It's like, how do you think investors who are stuck with a bunch of coal assets feel after having not seen the triple threat of shale gas, wind and solar rolling at them from a mile away? The same can be said about EVs. All of the signs were there, they just chose to ignore them out of incredulity. Now the public is placing half a million orders down on a $35k+ vehicle from an upstart manufacture before it's even been fully unveiled. You have countries like Norway where new sales are almost 1/4th EVs, and there's nothing to stop other countries from following suit. The writing is on the wall.
The lack of uptick in 2017 is rather upsetting. Based on all the rhetoric that Tesla has been spouting about how much they are going to speed up the roll out it looks like its actually growing at the exact same pace its been growing at since 2014.
There does seem to be an awful lot under construction right now, so hopefully we will see a sharp uptick in that graph soon.
I agree the growth curve does not appear to be fast enough growth to reach Tesla's rather lofty goals for the year (doubling the number of supercharger stalls), however it represents a 30% faster growth in new Supercharger stations from Jan 1 - July 24 vs 2016. And, as you pointed out, there are currently 45 new stations under construction (which don't show on the graph yet). Also, much of the focus this year has been on increasing the number of stalls at existing stations, which is shown in this graph. Notice how the rate of growth is increasing as the year progresses. If growth follows that trend line until the end of the year it will bring us to about 7,500 Supercharger stalls.
Now what would REALLY impress me is to see a graph with all the new planned and opened SERVICE CENTERS!
There are more locations under construction right now that ever have been and many of the new locations are the large 20 stall (or larger) facilities. There are also many locations that are getting upgraded with more stalls.
Yes, things are definitely accelerating fast with SC installation lately. There was only 1 SC between Philly & DC when I got my MX last year, so for each trip, my MX 90D had to be charged to almost full on the way to DC, so I can get back to the same SC in Delaware (~200 miles round trip). They opened up anther SC near DC last year, which makes the planning a lot easier. Now there are 2 more SC under constructions along the I-95 in Maryland. Once they are open, there's no planning needed at all to make the trip. BTW, I only had my MX for 11-month.
Hmm.. curve slope looks like 2000 pcs / year? I'll smile when every country has 2xSC (one service center + one supercharger), also ours needs them for operating a Tesla reliably.
I agree the uptick in 2017 isn't really fast enough to handle what should be substantial unit growth of the cars. Since we don't actually know what the build/delivery rate of the 3 will be, however, the lack of an exponential trend break may reflect the company's actual plans to roll out the 3.
I wouldn't put much stock in what the promised or permitted sites will be without retrospective data to tell us what past planned/permitted sites were and how closely the actual trend line adhered to the forecast.