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This is beyond alarming. Methane vents appearing in the Arctic water near Siberia.

Discussion in 'Energy, Environment, and Policy' started by zack, Dec 13, 2011.

  1. zack

    zack Member

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  2. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    If I'm not mistaken, reactions like this, or similar to this, were predicted by climate scientists and are part of the escalating (exponential) feedback-processes (if that is a fitting expression) which are going to take place more and more as things get worse.
     
  3. zack

    zack Member

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    Everything is happening so much faster than originally predicted (and recently predicted!) that I wouldn't be surprised to see major climate change events in the next 2 years.
     
  4. Tech26

    Tech26 Member

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    Is there a "Safest place to live" in case of a major climate change or are we all pretty much hosed?
     
  5. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    There are lots of possible threats from climate change. The ironic thing is, the leading industrial countries (G7) will be affected mildly because they're located mostly in the moderate climate zones.
     
  6. zack

    zack Member

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    We'll see. It's all empirical at this point. Whatever happens happens.
     
  7. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    Low-lying urban areas (like Kirkland) would clearly be among the worst places to live with major climate change; low-lying, densely populated, highly dependent on trade. If you're worried, consider getting a place in eastern Washington, which is well above sea-level, lightly populated, and reasonably self-sustaining agriculturally.

    The problem is few "first worlders" have the skills to cope with a major breakdown in the economy. Fortunately, I think such is unlikely to occur, but raising the world's sea-level by 2m would destroy a lot of infrastructure and lead to widespread economic and population dislocations. Bad things.
     
  8. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    You mean like a snowstorm on the east coast during Halloween, and extremely warm weather around thanksgiving? 2012 is almost here, maybe the Mayans were predicting our own stupidity :smile:

    ...hey, at least we'll get to drive our Model S' for a bit.
     
  9. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    "New Model S Delivery Schedule: before the end of the world (for Signatures and P<2000)."
     
  10. TEG

    TEG TMC Moderator

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  11. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    #11 EVNow, Dec 14, 2011
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2011
    The biggest problems will be around rain pattern changes. This would be a big problem for south west US.

    For the developing world this would be tragic. Prolonged failure of Monsoon can kill nearly a Billion people in south asia, for eg.
     
  12. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    It won't end at that point. Lots of things will keep changing and we won't have time to adjust. It took us a long time to establish the (infra-)structures we have.

    One can be of different opinion about that, however my impression is that there isn't time for baby steps, we need more substantial solutions.
     
  13. Iz

    Iz EVs are here to stay

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    Unfortunately, many critics of such theories (facts really) are unwilling to implement changes to offset these events, which should have been done 20 years ago. If south Asia were impacted, the same critics might think differently when their low-wage labor begins to face the stark realities of our neglect.
     
  14. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    Homo Sapiens have not evolved to take important but long term risks seriously. Just like bacteria, we have evolved to consume all possible resources before the population starts decreasing.

    BTW, methane release from the oceans was likely the cause of the greatest extinction event. Here is a good read on this - Under a Green Sky: Global Warming, the Mass Extinctions of the Past, and What They Can Tell Us About Our Future by Peter D. Ward.
     
  15. zack

    zack Member

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    It's hard to imagine stable money-making opportunities arising from the destruction of infrastructure everywhere. I think I should be doing more target practice.
     
  16. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    BTW, none of the attendees of AGU are reporting anything about this "news". We will have to wait to see what others say.

    You can see some discussion around this methane news in the comments.

    RealClimate: AGU 2011: Day 5 and wrap-up
     
  17. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    Bluntly, bacteria have a better handle on these problems; by mutating very quickly and reproducing very quickly, even if billions of them die, some descendants are likely to be adapted to the changed environment. And there are many of them and they live in very small places; the ones adapted to "pre-photosynthesis earth" are pretty much still around, hiding near vents in the bottom of the ocean. As a group, bacteria will be fine. Actually, I suspect most single-celled photosynthetic organisms will be fine.... which doesn't help humans much.

    If we can halt CO2 releases so as to stop ocean acidification, we may be able to adapt before human extinction. If we pass the point where ocean acidification breaks the ocean food chain, I seriously doubt humanity will survive; the collapse of the ocean food chain will be pretty much impossible to survive, given that our land-based food chain will be severely compromised by global warming at the same time.

    Zack: target practice is OK, but best to hook up with local farmers and provide what they need so they feed you first when there's a crunch. :) I admit to not practicing this.
     
  18. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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  19. zack

    zack Member

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    Thanks for posting that. I'm so relieved now. 8^P
     
  20. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    It seems to counter "oveerblow" with "underblow". The article presents selected information which is more general and doesn't actually reflect on the recent findings.

    For example it more or less concludes:
    What does the qualification "that can be pinned on such releases" mean?

    It creates a bit the impression that methane in the atmosphere is not increasing at all, in a noteworthy way. However, consider this statistical analysis by Tamino from May 2011 (half a year ago):

    Methane Update | Open Mind

    It shows that since 2007, methane is rising (again) at a rate of 5.9 +/- 1.6 ppb/yr. (ppb = parts per billion, ppm = parts per million). According to these graphs, since 1985, CH4 has increased from about 1720 ppb to about 1880 ppb, which is about 9% in 25 years, if I am reading that correctly. 25 years may perhaps seem a long time, but compare it to the age of the planet or humankind. The rate until May 2011, since 2007, would be about 8% in 25 years.
     

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