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This Motor Industry Will Self Destruct In... ?

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by Driver Dave, Jan 6, 2017.

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  1. jkn

    jkn Member

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    Cars delivered by Tesla and 50% yearly growth curve from 2013:

    t.png
    2017 was planned to be above the curve, but then production hell come.
     
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  2. dcmetro

    dcmetro Member

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    Volvo is going to be the first one. Most (if not all) of their cars will offer electric versions by 2019. All by 2021 maybe...
     
  3. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    In spite of the hype, it looks like Ford is just going... Down the tubes.
     
  4. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    #104 Brando, Jan 26, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2018
    2015 - 10% = +700,000,000 people [10% of ~7,500,000,000]
    1900 - 70% = ~700,000,000 people [70% of ~1,000,000,000]
    Just to point out that a hell of a lot of people are still suffering.

    Population realities - not as bad as you might think - consider Hans Rosling

    Reminder of Buckminster Fuller lessons of doing more with less is real progress.
    Someone else might post a Bucky clip.
     
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  5. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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    I love Has Rosling. He's done incredible work on demographics and he explains it clearly.
    Check out GapMinder Gapminder: Unveiling the beauty of statistics for a fact based world view.
     
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  6. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    interesting to watch hybrids vs BEV from Volvo.- electrify vs electric - 2019/2020 will be interesting globally
     
  7. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    BOB LUTZ - we got to check with the car guy of industry. This is fun, you will enjoy.
     
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  8. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    How many models does volovo currently sell? 4?
     
  9. ron8853

    ron8853 Member

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    Industry profitability is largely influenced by truck revenues. When a performance-competitive electric truck is available, the industry will be at greatly increased financial risk. The exception being BMW, which does not offer a truck-thus making it a risk for an earlier demise.
     
  10. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

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  11. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    Volvo Truck and Volvo Cars are now two completely separate companies, since 1999. [not the same owners]
    for those interested in details see Volvo - Wikipedia

    Again, how many will be electrified (hybrids) and how many electric (BEV - Battery Electric Vehicles)
    Perhaps full BEV are only "practical" in industrialized countries and elsewhere hybrids are the most practical solutions??
     
  12. jkn

    jkn Member

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    Non industrialized area might not have fuel distribution network or it is inefficient making fuel expensive. So solar electric charging might be best solution. This depends on area and transportation needs. My guess is: When battery price drops enough, many non industrialized area will change to EVs.

    Hybrid has both EV and ICE tech, so it cannot be cheap to buy and maintain.
     
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  13. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    I think especially true if those areas can get solar for electricity production.
    solar + storage vs fossil fuel transporting + filling stations
     
  14. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    In the US 7, globally 9

    Are you talking about pickups or commercial trucks? Pickups are a huge factor in North America, but only a tiny sliver of the non-commercial market in most of the rest of the world. I think the only other place that sells many pickups is Australia (where they are called utes). In NA sales of light duty trucks is what is keeping the Big 3 in business.

    Commercial trucks are needed all over the world and they are significant, but total sales of commercial trucks is less than private car sales in most countries.
     
  15. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    U.S. and global commercial vehicle production 2016 | Statistic

    about 6 - 7 million in US and around 20 - 22 million world wide annually (internet searches for more info)
     
  16. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    And the global passenger car and light truck market is around 100 million vehicles a year. Commercial vehicles are a fair percentage of the passenger vehicle market and each commercial vehicle usually costs a lot more, but in pure numbers, there are fewer sales of commercial vehicles a year.
     
  17. fsch

    fsch Member

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    #117 fsch, May 24, 2019
    Last edited: May 24, 2019
    Two years ago, I made a prediction/extrapolation about the Canadian EV sales market share with the intention to check each year if I was correct. Last year I reported that data were indeed following the trend, and that they were behaving a bit like Moore's law for the number of transistors on a chip: it was doubling every 1.8 years.

    Well, I was wrong, it goes quite faster!
    plugableMarketShare.png
    Probably an effect of the M3 (and the Bolt?). It remains to be seen if the abolition of the generous EV grant program in Ontario (up to 12 k$CAD) will impact the increase of 2019 sales. On the other hand, a federal program (up to 5 k$CAD), which applies Canada-wide, just started a months ago. According to CanadaEVSales.com estimates, so far in 2019 (first 3 months), EV sales share is at 1.8%. Last year for the same period, it was at 1.6% and ended up at 2.23% for the full year. A rule of 3 brings the sales market share at 2.5% for 2019, still quite above the trend I predicted. We'll see...
     
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