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This Motor Industry Will Self Destruct In... ?

jkn

Member
Nov 29, 2013
504
323
EU
Cars delivered by Tesla and 50% yearly growth curve from 2013:

t.png

2017 was planned to be above the curve, but then production hell come.
 
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Brando

Active Member
Sep 27, 2016
2,968
2,051
Bainbridge Island, WA
2015 - 10% = +700,000,000 people [10% of ~7,500,000,000]
1900 - 70% = ~700,000,000 people [70% of ~1,000,000,000]
Just to point out that a hell of a lot of people are still suffering.

Population realities - not as bad as you might think - consider Hans Rosling
Reminder of Buckminster Fuller lessons of doing more with less is real progress.
Someone else might post a Bucky clip.
 
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mspohr

Well-Known Member
Jul 27, 2014
9,893
11,967
California
2015 - 10% = +700,000,000 people [10% of ~7,500,000,000]
1900 - 70% = ~700,000,000 people [70% of ~1,000,000,000]
Just to point out that a hell of a lot of people are still suffering.

Population realities - not as bad as you might think - consider Hans Rosling
Reminder of Buckminster Fuller lessons of doing more with less is real progress.
Someone else might post a Bucky clip.
I love Has Rosling. He's done incredible work on demographics and he explains it clearly.
Check out GapMinder Gapminder: Unveiling the beauty of statistics for a fact based world view.
 
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ron8853

Member
Aug 1, 2012
77
34
scottsdale
Industry profitability is largely influenced by truck revenues. When a performance-competitive electric truck is available, the industry will be at greatly increased financial risk. The exception being BMW, which does not offer a truck-thus making it a risk for an earlier demise.
 

Brando

Active Member
Sep 27, 2016
2,968
2,051
Bainbridge Island, WA
Industry profitability is largely influenced by truck revenues. When a performance-competitive electric truck is available, the industry will be at greatly increased financial risk. The exception being BMW, which does not offer a truck-thus making it a risk for an earlier demise.
Volvo Truck and Volvo Cars are now two completely separate companies, since 1999. [not the same owners]
for those interested in details see Volvo - Wikipedia

Again, how many will be electrified (hybrids) and how many electric (BEV - Battery Electric Vehicles)
Perhaps full BEV are only "practical" in industrialized countries and elsewhere hybrids are the most practical solutions??
 

jkn

Member
Nov 29, 2013
504
323
EU
Volvo Truck and Volvo Cars are now two completely separate companies, since 1999. [not the same owners]
for those interested in details see Volvo - Wikipedia

Again, how many will be electrified (hybrids) and how many electric (BEV - Battery Electric Vehicles)
Perhaps full BEV are only "practical" in industrialized countries and elsewhere hybrids are the most practical solutions??
Non industrialized area might not have fuel distribution network or it is inefficient making fuel expensive. So solar electric charging might be best solution. This depends on area and transportation needs. My guess is: When battery price drops enough, many non industrialized area will change to EVs.

Hybrid has both EV and ICE tech, so it cannot be cheap to buy and maintain.
 
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Brando

Active Member
Sep 27, 2016
2,968
2,051
Bainbridge Island, WA
Non industrialized area might not have fuel distribution network or it is inefficient making fuel expensive. So solar electric charging might be best solution. This depends on area and transportation needs. My guess is: When battery price drops enough, many non industrialized area will change to EVs.

Hybrid has both EV and ICE tech, so it cannot be cheap to buy and maintain.
I think especially true if those areas can get solar for electricity production.
solar + storage vs fossil fuel transporting + filling stations
 

wdolson

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jul 24, 2015
7,737
10,544
Clark Co, WA
How many models does volovo currently sell? 4?

In the US 7, globally 9

Industry profitability is largely influenced by truck revenues. When a performance-competitive electric truck is available, the industry will be at greatly increased financial risk. The exception being BMW, which does not offer a truck-thus making it a risk for an earlier demise.

Are you talking about pickups or commercial trucks? Pickups are a huge factor in North America, but only a tiny sliver of the non-commercial market in most of the rest of the world. I think the only other place that sells many pickups is Australia (where they are called utes). In NA sales of light duty trucks is what is keeping the Big 3 in business.

Commercial trucks are needed all over the world and they are significant, but total sales of commercial trucks is less than private car sales in most countries.
 

Brando

Active Member
Sep 27, 2016
2,968
2,051
Bainbridge Island, WA
In the US 7, globally 9



Are you talking about pickups or commercial trucks? Pickups are a huge factor in North America, but only a tiny sliver of the non-commercial market in most of the rest of the world. I think the only other place that sells many pickups is Australia (where they are called utes). In NA sales of light duty trucks is what is keeping the Big 3 in business.

Commercial trucks are needed all over the world and they are significant, but total sales of commercial trucks is less than private car sales in most countries.
U.S. and global commercial vehicle production 2016 | Statistic

about 6 - 7 million in US and around 20 - 22 million world wide annually (internet searches for more info)
 

wdolson

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jul 24, 2015
7,737
10,544
Clark Co, WA
U.S. and global commercial vehicle production 2016 | Statistic

about 6 - 7 million in US and around 20 - 22 million world wide annually (internet searches for more info)

And the global passenger car and light truck market is around 100 million vehicles a year. Commercial vehicles are a fair percentage of the passenger vehicle market and each commercial vehicle usually costs a lot more, but in pure numbers, there are fewer sales of commercial vehicles a year.
 

fsch

Member
Sep 21, 2015
151
177
Montreal, QC
Two years ago, I made a prediction/extrapolation about the Canadian EV sales market share with the intention to check each year if I was correct. Last year I reported that data were indeed following the trend, and that they were behaving a bit like Moore's law for the number of transistors on a chip: it was doubling every 1.8 years.

Well, I was wrong, it goes quite faster!
plugableMarketShare.png

Probably an effect of the M3 (and the Bolt?). It remains to be seen if the abolition of the generous EV grant program in Ontario (up to 12 k$CAD) will impact the increase of 2019 sales. On the other hand, a federal program (up to 5 k$CAD), which applies Canada-wide, just started a months ago. According to CanadaEVSales.com estimates, so far in 2019 (first 3 months), EV sales share is at 1.8%. Last year for the same period, it was at 1.6% and ended up at 2.23% for the full year. A rule of 3 brings the sales market share at 2.5% for 2019, still quite above the trend I predicted. We'll see...
 
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