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Anon2

Of Course I Trust You Will Do The Right Thing
Jul 13, 2017
83
40
Philadelphia Pennsylvania
Hats. To write well can be existential. Scribes, if so gifted, possess an ability to visit other physical and or material worlds. Peruse varying mindsets. Often requiring, in a sense, becoming part of these persons or things for best comprehension. Interactively speaking. Learning tool? Sounds like simulation or gaming. A more modern term for technical exercise. Electric vehicle manufacturing is not sport for Tesla. Nor should it be at this stage where orders have reached peak demand. Challenging supply chains to ramp up the pace. Cue, "I can see clearly now the rain is gone. I can see all obstacles in my way. Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind. It's gonna be a bright. Bright sunshiny day." Grab your thinking caps though.

Tesla has identified its "production bottleneck" for the Model 3. Exits hellfire zones of deadly intensity. In last week's earnings call for Q3, it was put to rest that there are any ongoing issues of significance prohibiting move forward with production of Model 3s in accordance with number of orders currently in queue. Tesla's report and disclosure for Q3 sought to address investor concerns as hyped out of perspective by certain journalistic entities. Namely, that the EV maker is in critical decline having not met projected targets. Thursday's earnings call also clarified recent layoffs as reported by some media outlets without putting into perspective for the public that the "hundreds" of individuals let go is a fraction of the many thousands the company employs. Also not fact checked in most reportings, Tesla indeed promoted some existing employees who achieved high performance ratings as they pertained to company's mission fulfillment benchmarks.
Translated into layman's lingo. Tesla and companies being the underdog factor must be a standout presence in its industry. This means running a tight lean experienced robust personnel pool of non-assholes. Individuals with proven abilities and expertise will ensure highest probability of success.

It was an informative call for investors needing reassurance answers. Perhaps not getting definitive forecast numbers for Model 3 Q4 ➡ Q1 2018 production. "There's just too much uncertainty at this point." Elon Musk replies to an investor question asking for said future specifics. There is an unofficial answer. We must look to Tesla trends. While we're out here, let's up our historical perspective on where the electric car innovator was and now is. Words from an entrepreneur and bastion of sustainable futures, Musk in addressing skeptics of late, "Which of you predicted we would be producing as many electric cars as we have already?" Cue the crickets.

Over the past six years Tesla has consistently increased its deliverables. Numbers obviously improve with Model S being introduced into product line. From 2013 through 2015 (See thumbnails in comments) there's a steady upward bound in both deliveries and revenue. Model S being the primer which carries over into subsequent reportings. Factor in installation of gigafactories. Fully operational enables production efforts to be elevated and most, eventually, all moving parts of Tesla makes and models to be manufactured in house. Eliminating on large order future drag time in circumventing mass production curves.

We see sharpest rise from 2015 to 2016 in overall deliveries and revenue. Deliveries take a dip during current year quarters. Model 3 infuses huge amount of cash flow via record number of prepaid deposits. Now that Model 3 orders have capped, not tapped out, Tesla forges ahead with production to meet demand for its economically priced sedan. While it is a high priority hot ticket item presented in the big picture? Delivery delays due to unforeseen circumstances and other unsubstantiated rumor are mere fraction of results stretched out across a continuum. Notice revenue does not change much from the downward dip in EV deliverables. In fact, it continues steady upwards. This is a key point brought out on earnings call. The Model 3 is a ten year program in Tesla's product portfolio. What's happening now, put into its proper perspective, is a manufacturing timeline reset. Shifting benchmarks targeted projections and milestones a wee bit out to meet 100 percent demand.

Trends suggest Tesla meets or exceeds its deliverables defined by leadership as, cars actually handed over to customers. No contractual issues. Excellent way to do business. Mimicking federal contracting core best practices where a contract is not counted closed without proof of delivery acceptance and payment.

Crux of Tesla's manufacturing formulae is a balanced approach. Not a mislead. Overprojection of production numbers is based on past patterns. Perhaps a confidence statement in its product. Adjusting that number to meet actual orders (Over At Demand Deliverables, OADD) as they come in is smart decision making. Result? Low to no end of year inventory.

This is the model for industry of electric vehicles. Unlike fueled powered car manufacturers where the under-over approach (Under Over Demand Deliverables, UODD) results in large quantities in end of year inventory. Just sitting around. EV market, for Tesla, is driven more by contributing to a sustainable future. Includes minimizing or full elimination of waste. Primary goal is that every electric car sold is out there on the road. At full capacity usage. Not sitting in a showroom. On a lot or in a warehouse. It's how private sector in collaboration with legislative efforts can work together to reduce our carbon footprint. Build solid green energy sources. Secure a sustainable future.

Back to dollar and sense dialect of green lingo. Less unsold inventory, OADD, contributes more favorably to Tesla bottom line. Enabling focus on other programs in progress. Semi truck commercial market, Battery power/Powerpack energy projects for whole geo areas like Puerto Rico and South Australia.


Hyperloop bi-coastal public mass transit systems. (HINT Badge Prize #3 Escorted. Follow up Q&A) Trends reveal Tesla's gains are highly probable given company's historical record of rebounding from challenges like issue in a single quadrant of Model 3's production process. Investors now in a legal queue state, "We want out." The rest who understand the specifics when put into proper much broader perspective remain nonplussed. A mentality that pays off with perseverance.

Final note on earnings call and skepticism. Elon's question, "Who predicted..." Crickets covered that. Hows about who predicted the QA chronic hiccup in Model 3's supplier chain? Answer. A direct hint lead in based on logic critical thinking and beauty of statistical probability. With over 10,000 parts many of which are or were contractually outsourced it was inevitable a wrinkle in production would STEM from there. X was the factor pinpointing exactly which outsourced item would be culprit causing drag. Leadership admittedly did not solve for X in time to prevent the bottleneck BUT avoided, by dogged determination, an even worse case scenario. A full elongated stop. Tout! Tout! Tout...think I've earned three badges or hats for that this and others;)

On to greater Tesla news.

Demand for the brand continues to soar surpassing those peaks of expectation. Some legislators exercised in rational logical critical thinking are stepping up. Probably because constituents are purchasing what they want, a Tesla, out of state. Green talks. (Hint Badge Prize #2 Queue me up) An old state law in Wisconsin prohibits car manufacturers from selling direct to consumers.

RSVPs are going out for Tesla Semi Unveil event on November 16! Check your inboxes. This is going to be hella cool. Pun intended.
Secret shenanigans flying out of Space X. Really...? MUST be there launch debut of Falcon Heavy to close out 2017. YES PLEASE. (Hint Badge #1 Prize Level VIP attendee). Launch date buzz is December 29. Again check those inboxes for referral program deets.

Dragon returns to orbit CRS-13 mission to ISS with NASA in early December. Sign up to cover on social media and bragging rights among your friends.

Best for last. Black cherry on top because I like a darker sweeter berry in my brandy cocktail. This.

Best for next last. Building Tesla. Historical perspective. Big picture. Tesla's quantum leap into the future of sustainability. We will get there. In time.


Til next post...
 

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