This will not end well for BMW

[Shark2222]

The Model 3 has already crushed all of their small sedans in the US.

Sales of the 3/4 series in the U.S. dropped a bit less than 10,000 units from 2018 to 2019. You really think the Model 3 had a lot to do with that? Most analysts will tell you the drop in 3/4 series sales is mostly the seismic shift from sedans to SUV's.

I know 17 people that have bought Model 3's. Two of them came from BMW's, one a 5 series and the other an X3. 4 came from Model S. All the others came from a combination of Toyota, Acura, Honda, and Subaru. Interestingly, not one from any other American vehicle except the Model S. Interesting.

Sure, Model 3 has been a phenomenal sales success. But from what I've seen it's been more at the expense of the Japanese brands rather than German.

 

[Zorg]

Sales of BMW passenger cars went down nearly 30,000 from 2018 to 2019 in the US.

 

[Shark2222]

Sales of BMW passenger cars went down nearly 30,000 from 2018 to 2019 in the US.

Yes, but SUV sales increased by far more than that. You really think the decrease in passenger cars sales has more to do with the Model 3 versus the switch to SUV's?


2019 (Full Year) USA: BMW and Mini Sales in America

January 4, 2020 by Henk Bekker in Brands, News, USA

In 2019, BMW brand sales in the USA increased by 4.4% to 324,826 vehicles but Mini sales were down 17.4% to 36,092 cars. The BMW Group sales increased by 1.8% to 360,918 vehicles.

In full-year 2019, BMW sales in the United States of America increased 4.4 percent to total sales of 324,826, compared to the 311,014 vehicles sold in 2018. For the full-year 2019, MINI sales decreased 17.4 percent to total sales of 36,092 compared to the 43,684 vehicles sold in 2018. The X3 was the most-popular BMW in the US in 2019 with the 3 Series the favorite BMW car. The Countryman was the top-selling Mini in the US in 2019.


BMW Group Sales in the USA in 2019
BMW Group sales in the US was as follows in 2019:


2019 2018 %
BMW passenger cars 165,549 193,465 -14.4%
BMW light trucks 159,277 117,549 35.5%
Total BMW Brand 324,826 311,014 4.4%
Total Mini Brand 36,092 43,684 -17.4%
TOTAL BMW GROUP 360,918 354,698 1.8%
anger car sales had more to do with the Model 3 than the overall switch to SUV's?


2019 (Full Year) USA: BMW and Mini Sales in America

January 4, 2020 by Henk Bekker in Brands, News, USA

In 2019, BMW brand sales in the USA increased by 4.4% to 324,826 vehicles but Mini sales were down 17.4% to 36,092 cars. The BMW Group sales increased by 1.8% to 360,918 vehicles.

In full-year 2019, BMW sales in the United States of America increased 4.4 percent to total sales of 324,826, compared to the 311,014 vehicles sold in 2018. For the full-year 2019, MINI sales decreased 17.4 percent to total sales of 36,092 compared to the 43,684 vehicles sold in 2018. The X3 was the most-popular BMW in the US in 2019 with the 3 Series the favorite BMW car. The Countryman was the top-selling Mini in the US in 2019.


BMW Group Sales in the USA in 2019
BMW Group sales in the US was as follows in 2019:


2019 2018 %
BMW passenger cars 165,549 193,465 -14.4%
BMW light trucks 159,277 117,549 35.5%
Total BMW Brand 324,826 311,014 4.4%
Total Mini Brand 36,092 43,684 -17.4%
TOTAL BMW GROUP 360,918 354,698 1.8%

 

[Shark2222]

I don’t think they have a clue how hard this will hit , what’s especially bad is pent up demand for the Y will outweigh the normal drop off in sales during scary times such as now. In other words sales off an extra bit at bmw but those who ordered Y will mostly flow thru with purchase.

What is the pent up demand for the Y? I was at my local store last week and was told if I order now to expect delivery in June, possibly as early as Memorial Day. I was very surprised at that as I was assuming there would be a 6 month wait. And Elon has been very evasive when asked about the number of Y orders received.

 

[Swampgator]

Yes, but SUV sales increased by far more than that. You really think the decrease in passenger cars sales has more to do with the Model 3 versus the switch to SUV's?


2019 (Full Year) USA: BMW and Mini Sales in America

January 4, 2020 by Henk Bekker in Brands, News, USA

In 2019, BMW brand sales in the USA increased by 4.4% to 324,826 vehicles but Mini sales were down 17.4% to 36,092 cars. The BMW Group sales increased by 1.8% to 360,918 vehicles.

In full-year 2019, BMW sales in the United States of America increased 4.4 percent to total sales of 324,826, compared to the 311,014 vehicles sold in 2018. For the full-year 2019, MINI sales decreased 17.4 percent to total sales of 36,092 compared to the 43,684 vehicles sold in 2018. The X3 was the most-popular BMW in the US in 2019 with the 3 Series the favorite BMW car. The Countryman was the top-selling Mini in the US in 2019.


BMW Group Sales in the USA in 2019
BMW Group sales in the US was as follows in 2019:


2019 2018 %
BMW passenger cars 165,549 193,465 -14.4%
BMW light trucks 159,277 117,549 35.5%
Total BMW Brand 324,826 311,014 4.4%
Total Mini Brand 36,092 43,684 -17.4%
TOTAL BMW GROUP 360,918 354,698 1.8%
anger car sales had more to do with the Model 3 than the overall switch to SUV's?


2019 (Full Year) USA: BMW and Mini Sales in America

January 4, 2020 by Henk Bekker in Brands, News, USA

In 2019, BMW brand sales in the USA increased by 4.4% to 324,826 vehicles but Mini sales were down 17.4% to 36,092 cars. The BMW Group sales increased by 1.8% to 360,918 vehicles.

In full-year 2019, BMW sales in the United States of America increased 4.4 percent to total sales of 324,826, compared to the 311,014 vehicles sold in 2018. For the full-year 2019, MINI sales decreased 17.4 percent to total sales of 36,092 compared to the 43,684 vehicles sold in 2018. The X3 was the most-popular BMW in the US in 2019 with the 3 Series the favorite BMW car. The Countryman was the top-selling Mini in the US in 2019.


BMW Group Sales in the USA in 2019
BMW Group sales in the US was as follows in 2019:


2019 2018 %
BMW passenger cars 165,549 193,465 -14.4%
BMW light trucks 159,277 117,549 35.5%
Total BMW Brand 324,826 311,014 4.4%
Total Mini Brand 36,092 43,684 -17.4%
TOTAL BMW GROUP 360,918 354,698 1.8%

And yet BMWs net profit DECREASED by 28%. Hummmmnnn

 

[Shark2222]

And yet BMWs net profit DECREASED by 28%. Hummmmnnn

As you seem to know that's chiefly because of the huge EV investments BMW is making. BMW (and VAG and Mercedes) have no choice to make those huge investments given the alternative is the intolerable EU fines.

While I favor the Y over the X3, I'm not convinced the typical North American SUV buyer is yet ready to take the EV plunge. It will take some time. Take a look at the survey and order tracker here:
Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

Note that only 108 of the 1195 Model Y buyers are coming from BMW's. That's only 9%.

What really jumps off the page at me is the more than 200 orders coming from buyers leaving other Tesla models. Seems like the Y has a huge cannibalization issue, but I doubt that's a surprise to Elon. Think about how many Model 3 sales came from the X and M.

Makes complete sense. Think about all the surveys such as JD Power and Consumer Reports showing how happy Tesla owners are with their cars.

 

[RubberToe]

Take a look at the survey and order tracker here:
Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

Note that only 108 of the 1195 Model Y buyers are coming from BMW's. That's only 9%.

What really jumps off the page at me is the more than 200 orders coming from buyers leaving other Tesla models. Seems like the Y has a huge cannibalization issue, but I doubt that's a surprise to Elon. Think about how many Model 3 sales came from the X and M.

Makes complete sense.

Uh, this is a Tesla focused web site here. Not at all surprising that a survey of what cars people are switching to the Model Y from would show a disproportionate number coming from other Tesla products.

Makes complete sense.

RT

P.S. Time will show what the Y does to BMW SUV sales. Here is a hint: It's not going to be pretty for BWM

 

[jboy210]

Sales of the 3/4 series in the U.S. dropped a bit less than 10,000 units from 2018 to 2019. You really think the Model 3 had a lot to do with that? Most analysts will tell you the drop in 3/4 series sales is mostly the seismic shift from sedans to SUV's.

I know 17 people that have bought Model 3's. Two of them came from BMW's, one a 5 series and the other an X3. 4 came from Model S. All the others came from a combination of Toyota, Acura, Honda, and Subaru. Interestingly, not one from any other American vehicle except the Model S. Interesting.

Sure, Model 3 has been a phenomenal sales success. But from what I've seen it's been more at the expense of the Japanese brands rather than German.

The entry level Japanese brands are getting hit also, but a lot of the buyers would have made BMW their upmarket choice. Upmarket in that the would look at BMW 3 series when moving from a mid range Toyota, Honda, etc. That is, as symbol that they "made it". The Model 3 has taken over being the symbol that someone is doing well from BMW.

And for those that need/want an SUV/CUV, the Model 3 serves as the gateway drug to the Model Y. And will steal sales from the BMW X3/X5 model.

 

[Shark2222]

Actually the situation is a lot more complex than you might think:
Tesla Model 3's Interesting Impact on BMW Sales | Torque News

And note that article was from October. For the full year, U.S. 3 series sales were up 7.3 percent versus 2018 to 47,827 units from 44,578 in 2018.

So who knows how much more 3 series sales would have risen had it not been for the Model 3. 15%? 20%?

One thing you can extrapolate for sure from the numbers is that the 3 series generated more new sales from other places than the 3 series lost to the Model 3.

Don't get me wrong. I would chose the Model 3 ten times over the 3 series. But historically I'm not the typical U.S. car buyer. And it irks me when someone tries to sell conclusions that the real facts don't support.

 

[norbert-tx]

And yet BMWs net profit DECREASED by 28%. Hummmmnnn

Is this Tesla fan really bringing up profits? lol.

 

[cucubits]

I am also hoping that the Y is quiet inside at highway speeds, similar to most of the luxury brands.

With Tesla's track record of noisy interiors I wouldn't put much hope into this. I've heard reports that even a raven S with adaptive air suspension if still noisier inside on the highway compared to luxury ICE cars.

 

[Shark2222]

With Tesla's track record of noisy interiors I wouldn't put much hope into this. I've heard reports that even a raven S with adaptive air suspension if still noisier inside on the highway compared to luxury ICE cars.

I would think the noise level would be comparable to a Mod 3, which at highway speeds is certainly not the quietest car on the road.

Of course at lower speeds Teslas tend to be very quiet, but I have long assumed the reason Teslas tend to be noisier at highway speeds is the lack of sound deadening material (to save weight and maximize range). Everything always seems to be a tradeoff.

 

[hutsy]

I didn’t switch from anything. I still have my other cars. Although, I’m pro wasting money not trading in the car I’m currently daily driving.

 

[Georgia_Y]

With Tesla's track record of noisy interiors I wouldn't put much hope into this. I've heard reports that even a raven S with adaptive air suspension if still noisier inside on the highway compared to luxury ICE cars.

It's not even close. We drove down the Delivery Center today in X3 M40i with 21" rims and I took my new Y home the other way an hour later. I was shocked how loud the Y is on the inside compared to the X3. It's not a regret getting the car loud, but if you are wanting luxury car quiet, the Y is not close.

I do want to spend more time with the Y to give a more thorough evaluation and comparison to the X3. I will say, the exterior fit and finish was much better than I expected.

 

[NY_Rob]

^ kind of glad I'm going from a Chevy Bolt to the MY.

 

[Jayson]

For BMW in the US, the X3 is their best selling vehicle. The X3 is the source of most of the profits for BMW in the USA.

I just spec'd out a M40i X3 with white interior and gray 20" wheels. It costs $63K. My wifes Model Y with same trim will cost $56K

The Model Y is the same weight as the BMW with a full tank of gas. The Model Y is as fast as the BMW, cheaper to run, has better tech, and will probably have handling as good as the BMW because of the low center of gravity. I will not need to shut the motor down at a stoplight to meet fuel economy standards. It will not need oil changes and other ICE maintenance.

BMW has been killed by the Model 3 on the sedan side. I expect the same in the CUV space. Their car sales were down 14% last year, with the light trucks (X1-6) up 35% and accounting for all of the growth last year. How is BMW going to survive this?
What is their plan? Plug in hybrids? There are only so many people that will pay 8K more to get less performance and features.

I think BMW will be the first OEM to go bankrupt. Probably in 2022. They have about 12 billion in cash. Almost all of their assets are ICE (stranded). They have already committed to spend at least 17 billion for batteries and EV conversion. Where does that money come from once their CUV sales tank?

So unfortunate how on forums like this people can put forth nonsense like this which has no basis in fact.

You might like BMW to go bankrupt in 2022, but it's not happening even if sales nosedive by half due to the virus. The German government would simply never allow it to happen. You obviously don't know enough about the German economy and German politics to understand that.

BMW has been killed by the Model 3? What utter nonsense. If you did some research it would be clear to you 3 series sales were declining before the Model 3 hit the market. The fact is the major casualties of the 3 have been the X and S. Monthly sales history shows that clearly.

All the $ they are investing in EV's has little to do with Tesla. The reason is they have no choice as they cannot continue to sell ICE's in Europe because of the crazy fines that would put them under.

No one can possibly say how well BMW's EV's will compete with Tesla when no one knows the products that will be competing. EV tech is moving along so fast that it's tough to say what it might look like 5 years from now. Yes, it's possible BMW won't be able to catch up and compete, but it's also possible 5 years from now BMW might be employing EV tech developed by a supplier that we have not even seen yet and competes very well with what Tesla might have at that point. Elon has no monopoly on EV tech, and EV tech is still in it's infancy.

I would not dare speculate what the market might look like that far out, especially given that you also have Mercedes and VAG pouring resources into it that Tesla cannot possibly match. But of course investment never guarantees success.

Elon has built up quite a lead, but there are going to be several competitors gunning for him because they have no choice. They have very deep pockets, and Elon has to be well aware of what's coming down the pike. The continued need for heavy R&D has to be a big part of the reason he went back to the market for more capital. It certainly was not because he thought he would need it to survive the virus.

Who will be the beneficiaries of the competition? Us consumers. For sure there is going to be some excellent product coming. Just sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

[Swampgator]

So unfortunate how on forums like this people can put forth nonsense like this which has no basis in fact

Everything in my post is based on facts, so your statement is false.
You may not like my message, but the sales figures do not lie. When BMW declares bankruptcy in a couple years, please post back on this thread with your thoughts.

 

[canbonbon]

So unfortunate how on forums like this people can put forth nonsense like this which has no basis in fact.

You might like BMW to go bankrupt in 2022, but it's not happening even if sales nosedive by half due to the virus. The German government would simply never allow it to happen. You obviously don't know enough about the German economy and German politics to understand that.

BMW has been killed by the Model 3? What utter nonsense. If you did some research it would be clear to you 3 series sales were declining before the Model 3 hit the market. The fact is the major casualties of the 3 have been the X and S. Monthly sales history shows that clearly.

All the $ they are investing in EV's has little to do with Tesla. The reason is they have no choice as they cannot continue to sell ICE's in Europe because of the crazy fines that would put them under.

No one can possibly say how well BMW's EV's will compete with Tesla when no one knows the products that will be competing. EV tech is moving along so fast that it's tough to say what it might look like 5 years from now. Yes, it's possible BMW won't be able to catch up and compete, but it's also possible 5 years from now BMW might be employing EV tech developed by a supplier that we have not even seen yet and competes very well with what Tesla might have at that point. Elon has no monopoly on EV tech, and EV tech is still in it's infancy.

I would not dare speculate what the market might look like that far out, especially given that you also have Mercedes and VAG pouring resources into it that Tesla cannot possibly match. But of course investment never guarantees success.

Elon has built up quite a lead, but there are going to be several competitors gunning for him because they have no choice. They have very deep pockets, and Elon has to be well aware of what's coming down the pike. The continued need for heavy R&D has to be a big part of the reason he went back to the market for more capital. It certainly was not because he thought he would need it to survive the virus.

Who will be the beneficiaries of the competition? Us consumers. For sure there is going to be some excellent product coming. Just sit back and enjoy the ride.

Some of what you are saying in actually correct. Like this gem: "The German government would simply never allow it to happen."
Here is another gem: "3 series sales were declining before the Model 3 hit the market", etc. So yes no one knows what the coming years would bring. But knowing Tesla and the speed of innovation they bring, I think they are much better poised (or are nimble enough) to change with that as opposed to legacy makers. BMW has lost its sheen whether you like it or not. I have owned both 3 and then 5 series and have been a BMW fan for very long time. Around Christmas time last year, my brother in law wanted to test drive an X5 as he was in the market for a new SUV. He wanted to compare it with X7, etc. So we go to the dealership (pretty big one with two stories of BMWs displays, etc.). It was a normal Saturday and due to holidays was actually busy there. As I was sitting and having my *Starbucks" coffee, I observed something unique which I had not seen in may years of my visits to this dealership. There were no young people. The crowd was mostly mid 40s to older gentlemen with their wives/kids and a lady in her 50s who was sitting next to me waiting for test drive. BMW but no young people? So how does that sound? Clearly its the young people who go after 3 series (hey I did that when I was young). Now you might say, its a random dealership pick on a random day (and continue to ignore what I am saying) so it does not count, but the fact is something has changed. They are not able to attract younger crowd. Not saying that its the economy (hey when did lack of money stopped the young from buying expensive things)(or as in young don't have enough money to buy a car) or they now take Uber/Lyft or they now gravitate towards Electric cars, but whatever the reason, its hurting BMW and will continue to hurt them. It almost felt all those who were there were there because of Nostalgic value and the feeling that there is no other better product out there. Even for my brother in law, there is nothing out there in that price range that he would prefer. He did end up buying X5 though. But that was before Model Y the biggest worry for BMW is not model 3 but its the self driving. If Elon is able to crack that code, the other manufactures are truly looking at a very grim future.

 

[Georgia_Y]

Everything in my post is based on facts, so your statement is false.
You may not like my message, but the sales figures do not lie. When BMW declares bankruptcy in a couple years, please post back on this thread with your thoughts.

And yet you conveniently glaze over the fact that BMW has increased overall vehicles sales over the same time period.

Or that the X3 went from 30k units a year to over 70k over the last five years. During the same five year period, prior to the T3, the 3-series halved it's sales. But I suspect you will resort back to the sales of a single vehicle, not look at the market shifts and think that a company that has limited factories, production capacity and model variation is going to somehow wipe out the industry in two years.

 

[jbcarioca]

Despite being a deeply involved Teslaphile and despite my determination to have only Tesla I think there is some hyperbole about how bad the alternatives may be, strictly on topic, BMW.

I have had BMW vehicles in four countries. Except for the US I have had stellar dealer support and a distinct absence of price gouging or unnecessary service. In the US I have had horrible service in Florida and excellent service in New York and Los Angeles. With Tesla I have had a mixture of wonderful and distressing encounters. I much prefer teh Tesla way, but it is distinctly not perfect.

The purchase experience, by contrast. is a 100% Tesla win. I have had one, and only one, dealer experience that was less than irritating, and that one was an exception in many ways.

As for the vehicle the Tesla negatives are noisy interior at speed plus the absence of a handful of trivial creature comforts. From my perspective my Tesla experience mirrors that of Maserati and Ferrari, my prior favorites. Quirky! However my Italians were all reliable and I did adore them all, four of them. The Tesla are vastly cheaper by every measure, even more fun to drive. I'd never go back.

Most Tesla negatives seem to me to relate to the quirks. I defy a technophobe to jump into a Tesla and instantly love it.
Service and sales are both built for computer-literate people. For many of us, the absence of perfect sound deadening is a feature, proving Tesla saves weight where they can. If one does not want to schedule online forget it!

We all must realize that Tesla does not build for everyone. Obviously, the Tesla approach is rapidly becoming the ideal for everyone below boomer-age. BMW probably will not go broke. They will have a hard time adapting.

As for airplane analogies: I remember when older pilots complained about automation. "If it's not Boeing I ain't going" was the refrain. Then came their first Fly by Wire, the B777. Boeing even designed it to look like and feel like a 'steam" cockpit. Then when they finally gave up the invented the B787, which took a long time and numerous problems to get more or less correct. Despite repeated disasters Boeing will not disappear. BMW has had some fairly costly errors too. The Z1, original 7 series I-drive, the i3 and i8. They'll eventually get it right, I think. It does not good to anyone if they fail.