Thoughts on depreciation?

[rDunivin]

Looking for others opinions on depreciation.

I see model S's now going just below the $30's.

Thinking about a used and face lifted 2016 model S 75D vs a model 3 performance.

Thinking about total cost of ownership over say 5 years, even with another update to the S I'm thinking it shouldn't hurt the already depreciated used Model S's too bad. So maybe $30k after 5 years as a worst case.

A brand new Model 3 stealth performance can be had for $50k, so in theory as a used car will go below $30k in 5 years.
That said, hard to think about buying a car with that performance and technology in 5 years for under $30k. Especially if older S's cost $30k at that time.

A crystal ball, but what are others thoughts?

 

[Ostrichsak]

New cars almost always depreciate at a much faster rate than cars that are a few years old.

There are FAR fewer Model S made than Model 3 and the used market will reflect this in terms of pricing once the flood of used Model 3's hit.

You should search though as this topic has been covered ad nauseam with threads as recent as the last couple of days.

 

[rDunivin]

Attempted a search, but wasnt able to find something that was directly comparing something like the high performance 3 to the non performance S in terms of cost of ownership.

Of course im new here, may not yet be the best searcher.

I do really hope the MCU 2 update comes in a couple months for $2k as Elon says...

 

[rDunivin]

By the way the 2016 S75D with 55k miles and FSD and 1.5 years left of ESP, is offered for $50k if anyone has any opinions about the price.

Has premium, lacks air suspension (heard unrelieved costly to fix), cold weather (Not too concerned with rear heated seats though heated wheel is nice. Apparently heated wipers doesn't do much I've been told), or high fidelity (This one I do wish it had)

 

[rDunivin]

Of course it’s all a guessing game but trying to make the most educated guess.

 

[ahhlun]

Beware the lower prices model S are actually really beat up.
Lots of bad stories about their quality

 

[rDunivin]

Beware the lower prices model S are actually really beat up.
Lots of bad stories about their quality

I appreciate the reply.

At least in pictures the S looks good. Some curb rash on 2 rims and a very slight mark on the sideview mirror. Since the owner took the time to call this out felt pretty good about seeing it through photos. Well as good as one can I suppose.
Apparently mostly highway.
Its a Florida coast car, it being Florida don't have to worry about the salt used in New England.
That being said being on the coast...

 

[tranzndance]

I'd consider getting the car that you would enjoy right now rather than worry so much about what will happen in a half decade. The S has some useful features/buttons that the 3 does not. A new 3 has many new features and capabilities that the old S does not have. You need to decide what matters to you and pick the best car that you can afford.

 

[beatle]

I had the same conundrum with depreciation curves before I bought my S. I wanted the best TCO, but in the end I went with the S since that's the car I liked more (heated steering wheel, air suspension, gauge cluster, tan interior, presenting door handles). I'd follow tranzndance's advice and just get the car you want more. FWIW, I think the dollar amount of depreciation between the two will be similar.

 

[rDunivin]

I'd consider getting the car that you would enjoy right now rather than worry so much about what will happen in a half decade. The S has some useful features/buttons that the 3 does not. A new 3 has many new features and capabilities that the old S does not have. You need to decide what matters to you and pick the best car that you can afford.

I had the same conundrum with depreciation curves before I bought my S. I wanted the best TCO, but in the end I went with the S since that's the car I liked more (heated steering wheel, air suspension, gauge cluster, tan interior, presenting door handles). I'd follow tranzndance's advice and just get the car you want more. FWIW, I think the dollar amount of depreciation between the two will be similar.

If everything was equal cost wise, I might go with the 3 because I do really want MCU 2 so as not to get left behind, though in theory for $2k that is coming to the S. I'll also admit I quite like the white interior.
That said, I just worry about them being equal in true cost to own.

I was thinking about it and I know with the S, I'm up about $6k with the free (though slower ) charging in theory, and another $1.5k on the excise tax.
If I factor those in with the apparent $2k MCU upgrade cost, I am now comparing an effective $45.5k used S with the newer $50k Stealth 3.

Depreciation or repairs needs to make up that difference.

 

[rDunivin]

I cannot thank those that have voted and commented enough. I am very grateful for the help.

I've since run some additional numbers and updated others, put all the numbers together in a new post:

Choose my Tesla: Comparing True Cost of Ownership

 

[tranzndance]

If TCO were a concern, you shouldn't consider a performance model. Consider holding on to the car for as long as possible, which could be well beyond five years.

 

[rDunivin]

If TCO were a concern, you shouldn't consider a performance model. Consider holding on to the car for as long as possible, which could be well beyond five years.

The reason why I am considering performance model, and a stealth at that, is it looks to cost about $2k over the normal AWD. For the $2k I get the faster car, and better resale value.

I say five years because of the autoloan. I needed to pick some number haha. I mean if we believe Elon Musk we will all be ferried around in self driving Tesla taxis in 5 years (which I highly doubt).
It's hard to say how long I would keep it but if I wasnt having any issues and there weren't any super compelling changes I'd probably continue to run it into the ground.

 

[dirkbike1]

As long as Tesla doesn't do another major price reduction on the S and X, depreciation should be similar for all in my opinion. Since Tesla is treating their product as a tech item instead of a vehicle, all bets are off.

 

[rDunivin]

I don't think they'll do another major price reduction on the S and X. After all they have to have the cost that separates the 3 and the more premium cars.

Maybe a refresh of the S and X. The one Elon keeps saying isn't happening whilst the tri motor plaids whip around the Nurburgring

 

[JCattSS]

The MS has depreciated a lot already while the 3 hasn’t but will. New car, newer tech, and a full warranty vs a crapshoot.
I rolled the dice and bought a P85D with 48k for about 48k. It will most likely cost me $$$ out of pocket for repairs and that’s a risk I’m willing to take.
At this point the S might not lose as much value over time but the potential for repairs is a factor.
Anything other than the standard range 3 you’re getting a lot more range with the 3, if that matters to you.

 

[Ken7]

You're also getting a softer ride with the S. There have been many complaints about the firm ride in the 3.

 

[rDunivin]

Yes there is the whole what will depreciate more, and if the S doesn't depreciate as much, will it's repair bills outweigh the difference anyways...

For me, the range and charging speed differences won't make a big difference as for me, I won't be doing enough miles in a given day and have very close supercharger station. Of course it is nice to have the extra range.

The softer ride is a definite plus with the S. I've only driven an S with the air suspension and only a 3 with the 18's. I am looking at an S without the air ride. Partially bc I understand the air suspension to be a sore spot as far as far as repairs are concerned.
I havent spent, but 15 minutes in a 3 so with more time in the car the opinion on the ride could definitely change, however thinking of the faster car and better handling evens out the ride quality aspect.

 

[cookie99]

for reference I just picked up a 2018 75D 19,000 miles with Air Suspension, Glass Roof, Premium Sound, Cold Weather Package (All standard for 2018) for $53k

 

[ahhlun]

for reference I just picked up a 2018 75D 19,000 miles with Air Suspension, Glass Roof, Premium Sound, Cold Weather Package (All standard for 2018) for $53k

That's a used with no warranty left right? Or is there any accident history.

The cheapest AP2.5 car I find is a 75 (non-D) for 60k