Thoughts on pricing for a lease buy-out?

[bjwModelS]

Wondering how y'all take into consideration a large up-front payment on a lease when it comes to a buy-out? I'm not driving the Model X nearly enough for business mileage because our client base shifted to where I'm doing a lot of one-way rentals and flying on to the next location instead of round-trip driving them.

2018 Model X 100D
Sticker Price: $120,500
$30K down cash
Adjusted Capitalized Cost: $90,500
Residual Value: $69,557.50

Lease Payments: 36
Base Monthly Payment: $917.86
Monthly Sales/Use Tax: $64.25
TOTAL MONTHLY PAYMENT: $982.11

I wanted to have payment under $1K/Month which was reason for putting cash down up front.
Lease is for 15K miles/year. Averaging out to 41.095 miles/day over 3 years would put me at 478 days today, or 19,643 miles. Today I have 15,803.

So by October 25 I'll be -4,000 on allotted mileage, with 20 months left on the lease.

20 months with 30,000 miles to spare, $982 monthly payment.

In my mind it makes sense to ask for $10,000 cash as a part of a lease transfer/buy-out for both the mileage available as well as the $833/month paid up front on the lease. I'd be "eating" 6K of that at 10K payment but assuming more depreciation on the front end of the lease.

Thoughts, oh wise forum members who have a comment on every for sale thread that goes up?

 

[jimbo69ny]

Very interesting. My purchase was very similar. I purchased a 2019 raven long range model X one month ago. The car was $87,900 and I put $30,000 down. I financed for 6 years through Tesla. My monthly payment is $981.

Do you have a performance model? Your sales price of turn $120,000 seems really high.

 

[patrikr]

My current 2016 Model X lease is up in December and I'm trying to decide what to do next. Most likely I will try to find a lease to take over shorter term (like yours) to wait out the Model Y release and give it some more time for the the rumored is-it-ever-going-to-happen interior refresh to materialize.

Having said that, your lease seem expensive. The $10k down for 20 months raises the effective payments by $500 / month which bring the total payment to $1417.86 / month excluding tax. The lease cost for a brand new Long Range X with white interior, 20" wheels, 5 seats and FSD cost $1308.33 / month including the $7500 down payment. Effectively, you're asking for a $109 premium for a non-Raven car. Personally I think it's too much and would pass (and I'm actively looking!) but others may disagree.

 

[Draketurner]

What are the details of your car so I can compare it to the pricing of a new car? Currently a LR X is between $999 and $1324 per month with $7,500 down.

* $999 is with the 5 seater, white on black with AP and 20" tires. Effective $1207
* $1324 is 6 seater Red on White with 22" wheels and FSD. Effective $1532
* Your car, unknown Effective $1417

Its hard to say if its okay or terrible without knowing the details of your car. I have a feeling it will be a hard sell with the $10k though. If you can find someone who needs more mileage than a typical lease it might be better.

 

[bjwModelS]

Very helpful comments. I don't even know what a "Raven" is haha but I knew y'all would help me think through if 10K is a reasonable ask, or if it's lower, etc.

Specs on car, ordered April 2018 delivered June 2018, attached -

 

[bjwModelS]

I also see this one on SwapaLease with fewer miles but similar situation:
2018 Tesla Model X lease in Arlington, VA

Beyond that you're $1300/mo and above for a 100D/LR takeover on that site

 

[jimbo69ny]

Very helpful comments. I don't even know what a "Raven" is haha but I knew y'all would help me think through if 10K is a reasonable ask, or if it's lower, etc.

Specs on car, ordered April 2018 delivered June 2018, attached -

View attachment 466791

I know this isn’t what you want to hear but that same car purchased today would be $89,000. It would also come with free unlimited supercharging for life and it would be a Raven model. Raven was the code name internally at Tesla for the refreshed mode X that is for sale currently. It has 325 mile range, has the brand new autopilot computer, a brand new air suspension and more. It made an already amazing car phenomenal!!
Sorry but you will probably have to keep your car till the end of its lease.

 

[patrick40363]

Wondering how y'all take into consideration a large up-front payment on a lease when it comes to a buy-out? I'm not driving the Model X nearly enough for business mileage because our client base shifted to where I'm doing a lot of one-way rentals and flying on to the next location instead of round-trip driving them.

2018 Model X 100D
Sticker Price: $120,500
$30K down cash
Adjusted Capitalized Cost: $90,500
Residual Value: $69,557.50

Lease Payments: 36
Base Monthly Payment: $917.86
Monthly Sales/Use Tax: $64.25
TOTAL MONTHLY PAYMENT: $982.11

I wanted to have payment under $1K/Month which was reason for putting cash down up front.
Lease is for 15K miles/year. Averaging out to 41.095 miles/day over 3 years would put me at 478 days today, or 19,643 miles. Today I have 15,803.

So by October 25 I'll be -4,000 on allotted mileage, with 20 months left on the lease.

20 months with 30,000 miles to spare, $982 monthly payment.

In my mind it makes sense to ask for $10,000 cash as a part of a lease transfer/buy-out for both the mileage available as well as the $833/month paid up front on the lease. I'd be "eating" 6K of that at 10K payment but assuming more depreciation on the front end of the lease.

Thoughts, oh wise forum members who have a comment on every for sale thread that goes up?

Put it up on lease trader or swap a lease. It appears that some people will give you some cash. If you total your car you don't get any of the $30K you put down back. Always best to put as little money down as possible..

 

[bjwModelS]

Sorry but you will probably have to keep your car till the end of its lease.

Which is also fine, no need to sell on my end. I thought it might be appealing for someone to be sub-1K/monthly on a lease because it seems rare, and my experience in selling my Model S in 2018 is that 95% of potential buyers have very little knowledge or care about the things that people discuss or consider in the forums (XPel, extended warranty, Raven, etc. haha) so I assume I can go to a SwapaLease and get a buyer quickly just based on monthly payment...

 

[bjwModelS]

I know this isn’t what you want to hear but that same car purchased today would be $89,000.

Tried to re-build this X on the website and couldn't come in less than 95K, and that's not considering that it has enhanced autopilot with features that would require an FSD purchase to get.

Long Range + paint color upcharge + rims upcharge + 6 seat interior upcharge lands you at $94,900. FSD is another $6000 to get the features I also have (smart summon, navigate on autopilot, auto lane change, autopark) which puts it at $100,900.

So just for the sake of others who might be looking and doing research down the road, this car at 120K sticker price is not comparable to an 89K Model X today. 100K is more realistic for sticker price 18 months later.

 

[Levelheadsteve]

Was your original plan to buy it at the end of the lease?

 

[bjwModelS]

Was your original plan to buy it at the end of the lease?

No, never intended to buy it. It's a business lease.

 

[Levelheadsteve]

No, never intended to buy it. It's a business lease.

Do you get to write off the $30K down payment?

 

[bjwModelS]

Do you get to write off the $30K down payment?

I have no clue. Do you have a question relevant to my original post re: properly pricing a buy-out?

 

[Levelheadsteve]

I have no clue. Do you have a question relevant to my original post re: properly pricing a buy-out?

No. Just trying to figure out why anyone would ever put $30,000 cash down on a lease they don’t intend to buy. That money could be in an interest earning account and you could draw it down, if needed, to assist with the payments.
Google Image Result for https://media1.giphy.com/media/PMPwpWrGFLu80/source.gif

 

[cookie99]

No. Just trying to figure out why anyone would ever put $30,000 cash down on a lease they don’t intend to buy. That money could be in an interest earning account and you could draw it down, if needed, to assist with the payments.
Google Image Result for https://media1.giphy.com/media/PMPwpWrGFLu80/source.gif

for business lease you can write it off, but has to be divided by the lease terms, so $10k writeoff a year.

anyway, where are you located OP? I'd be interested in the car without the $10k youre asking for.