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"three-year delay in its Gigafactory schedule"?

Discussion in 'Model S: Battery & Charging' started by Tam, Mar 28, 2016.

  1. Tam

    Tam Active Member

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  2. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    where did this happen? not in any SEC filings
     
  3. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    Ah, no.

    Montana Skeptic has been promoting this angle in his Seeking Alpha articles. Of course it is specious.

    Originally, the idea was to build the complete shell by the end of 2017 and fill it with production lines along the way such that the entire factory would be operational sometime in 2020. The plans changed such that the Gigafactory would be built in separate sections and filled with production lines in each section instead of the complete shell at one time. Tesla has not communicated any delay at all.

    Further, the initial section would be enough to launch the Model 3. Plenty of bears were chomping on the idea that the entire Gigafactory would be necessary to build the Model 3, which was clearly not the case. Montana Skeptic's own understanding of the Gigafactory build out has been undergoing a public metamorphosis. See his earlier article:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3802046-nevada-rolls-snake-eyes-tesla-gigafactory-casino

    He mis-interprets the original Gigafactory PDF and mixes up what is to be built by end of 2015, what is built by end of 2017, and what is built by 2020. That article is filled with so many misunderstandings that it's quite comical actually.
     
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  4. artsci

    artsci Sponsor

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    Let me guess. Is Montana Skeptic short on Tesla?

    Does anyone take Seeking Alpha seriously?. I don't - it's chock full of bogus stuff.
     
  5. Todd Burch

    Todd Burch Electron Pilot

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    Total garbage...they're slightly ahead of schedule.
     
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  6. Tam

    Tam Active Member

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  7. Gizmotoy

    Gizmotoy Active Member

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    Indeed. Even setting aside the many times we've seen incorrect Tesla articles from them, their articles in industries on which I am involved and intimately familiar are often wrong to such a laughable degree that I have to call into question anything they produce.

    They seem to either have an agenda they're pushing, or care more about producing articles than being correct. Either way, I wouldn't trust them.
     
  8. Dithermaster

    Dithermaster Member

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    During the Model 3 unveiling Elon Musk said the Gigafactory is already doing some production. His exact words were "It's already operational today".
     
  9. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    They, and the authors, make money from clicks so, unsurprisingly, most of their articles are click-bait. The cure is don't go there and deny them their click-bait income.
     
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  10. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    Remember, the Tesla skeptics have been calling the Gigafactory the giggle factory and that it is a mirage in the desert. First, that no construction was happening at all, just moving some dirt around. Then, it was just some small shell and Panasonic isn't willing to be a partner. Then, Tesla + partners can't raise the $5 billion for the total factory so the project is doomed. And so forth. Right now, the phase of denial is at meeting arbitrary construction deadlines. Montana Skeptic has had a hard time comprehending the primary source material that he references, including the construction time lines with the various phases.

    Right now, the first phase of the Gigafactory is still under construction. It seems probable that 1/3 of the first phase is building Tesla Energy products and is likely geared for battery sheet assembly, which is a likely shared task between both Tesla Energy and Tesla Automotive products. Battery pack assembly is also there, but not quite the same between the two end products. It is not clear if the next 1/3 has an inside yet... I presume it has, as Panasonic has people onsite at this point and is spending many millions. Obviously the battery cell production lines can't be built until there is an inside. The first phase shell is definitely not yet complete.

    The next big question is the timing of the start of the next phase. Clearly, Tesla could have built the shells of all the phases at once if it had the capital to do so. However, not doing so does not imply any delay in the overall project since building the shell is a parallel process with building out the cell and battery assembly production lines. The only issue becomes any delay in critical path items and shell construction is unlikely to be in the critical path. It might be that Tesla was waiting to see the demand of the Model 3 before setting the timelines for the next phases. At this point, with likely 300,000 pre-order level soon, Tesla can go back to Panasonic and others to accelerate that timeline.
     
  11. miimura

    miimura Active Member

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    The massive number of Model 3 reservations could also make it easier to raise capital, which could further accelerate the gigafactory build-out.
     

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