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Time to trade ap1...elon says yes

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I am loving the AP1 still and use it very frequently. Makes driving / life easier.
I wouldn't mind more power but find that the S85D is in reality everything i need.

What I do wish for was better range. Next in wants for me would be faster charging.

Im sure in the future, the cars will have 1000 mile range and be capable of charging in 10 minutes with stations all over the place.

That would be the death blow to gas cars.

I dunno. Every mile of battery range costs money - and adds weight, reducing the efficiency of the car. I think you'll see the range stop somewhere in the 4-600 mile area for the high end, and the companies focus on decreasing costs instead and maybe faster charging. There's very little real value to being able to drive for 1000 miles without stopping, because the drivers can't do that.

We're already near the tipping point - with a real 300 mile range you're talking about at least four hours of non-stop driving, unless you're in one of the really high speed limits out west (and well over three hours even there.) If the car can drive all morning, stop for a quick lunch and drive all afternoon/evening, I don't think anyone will have grounds to complain.
 
I was looking to get AP when the refresh hits, whenever that is, but now I'm not sure it will even be an option. With the Uber fatality, I have to think regulators are going to have to evaluate Beta testing of self driving systems on public roads. For sure the full self driving option is a pipe dream for the length of time I would have the car so that's out.
 
I hope the interior update is just a couple of months away. Would love to upgrade in time for all the summer driving.

I bet Tesla will see demand for the Model S go up by a good 30-40% as soon as an interior update is announced. Hopefully with a battery pack redesign using the more advanced Model 3 cells.
 
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I interpret this as Elon saying AP2 is better than AP1 in terms of performance.

Based on the videos of 18.10.4 I've seen it looks awesome so it does not seem like he's blowing smoke.

And in a recent TMC poll (admittedly unscientific), the vote is 84%-16% in favor of AP2. Poll: Has AP2 18.10.4 surpassed AP1 in terms of performance?

No.

Those who have owned and driven AP1 and AP2 cars have not come to this conclusion universally and cannot possibly come to this conclusion until fundamental AP2 shortcomings are fixed (all well-documented in these very fora). For those perhaps unaware or with an agenda, two of these shortcomings include a) speed limit recognition and reaction while TACC and AS are engaged, and b) crossing lane markers - for example and most egregiously, directly adjacent concrete barriers in HOV lanes. Both use cases far better with AP1.

Now, absent those shortcomings, which is to say in more... vanilla use case conditions, AP2 has come a long way and in fact, again as noted elsewhere, *.10.4 is one of the better AP2 updates.

But parity has not yet been reached a year and a half later.

Elon cannot possibly be blamed for the misinterpretations of others, but he is responsible for what comes out of his mouth and he has acknowledged that he can improve his messaging *especially* when it comes to timelines and functionality therein. That said, would you rather an aspirational CEO or a boring one? Well, technically now I guess we have both *cheesy grin*.

Also it is worth noting that:

1. Few are qualified to speak with any credibility whatsoever concerning AP1 and AP2 in practice because few have owned both and fewer still have driven those cars in a variety of conditions.

2. Elon and certain others who have commented about the greatness of AP2 present and future are themselves driving firmware versions well ahead of what we pedants have. Note JonMc’s well-received comments from Europe last Fall. See also the 12/2016 video that was faked, er, tightly controlled and put forth as coming soon - amidst, no less, comments that AP1 and AP2 would be at parity by the end of 2016, and then in 3 months possibly and 6 months definitely.

Not so much, and not today. But with Tesla’s SoC/new board that is currently in development, along with the first real new milestone in sight (stop sign recognition *and* reaction) perhaps as soon as next year, the future is very, very bright.

But we ain’t there yet, and neither is AP2 - relative to AP1, certainly.

You’ll just have to be happy with the fact that AP1 and AP2 are better than anything any other manufacturer has publicly released yet - including the amusing SuperDuperCruise from our friends *cough* at GM.
 
I interpret this as Elon saying AP2 is better than AP1 in terms of performance.
ROFL. Welcome to online forums, where a 3 letter tweet is analyzed and interpreted by people in a zillion ways to align with whatever they are thinking or whatever they wish Elon said. Imagine what people can do with 140 characters! :p
 
ROFL. Welcome to online forums, where a 3 letter tweet is analyzed and interpreted by people in a zillion ways to align with whatever they are thinking or whatever they wish Elon said. Imagine what people can do with 140 characters! :p

I noticed you clipped my last post (full text below). The context is important -- most people have been raving about the latest update to 18.10.4. Andrej Karpathy also acknowledged the very positive reception 18.10.4 is getting:

It's very rewarding to watch the early feedback on our latest Autopilot update: upload_2018-3-24_17-37-37.pnghttps://electrek.co/2018/03/16/tesla-autopilot-update-first-drive-videos/ … a result of a fairly extensive rewrite. Working hard to get more of it polished and out there! Andrej Karpathy on Twitter

Given the context of the positive reviews of AP2 on 18.10.4, I think my interpretation of Elon's tweet is pretty straightforward and non-controversial. Personally, I am also looking forward to what Karpathy was referring to when he said Tesla is "working hard to get more of it polished and out there!"

I interpret this as Elon saying AP2 is better than AP1 in terms of performance.

Based on the videos of 18.10.4 I've seen it looks awesome so it does not seem like he's blowing smoke.

And in a recent TMC poll (admittedly unscientific), the vote is 84%-16% in favor of AP2.
Poll: Has AP2 18.10.4 surpassed AP1 in terms of performance?
 
ROFL. Welcome to online forums, where a 3 letter tweet is analyzed and interpreted by people in a zillion ways to align with whatever they are thinking or whatever they wish Elon said. Imagine what people can do with 140 characters! :p

Ain't that the truth. Fortunately, there's room for the wishful thinkers as well as for those who have some experiential basis for their assertions (e.g., actual driving of both AP1 and AP2 cars over tens of thousands of miles in different countries, let alone conditions).

The timeframe for the next 2-3 years is exciting to be sure. In terms of *delivering in production* viable FSD features *that anyone can buy*, I like Tesla's chances - especially when in the context of being able to leave town with one's chariot.

I know this - the moment stop sign recognition and reaction is released (as presumably an FSD feature), the countdown starts for delivery of what will then be my 4th Tesla. The 3rd Tesla being a unicorn AP1 replacement later this year for this AP2 experiment I've been driving for a year now (presuming no EAP or FSD this year).

I used to think the Volkswagen Group or even GM would take the lead at some point for the combination of AP/FSD and distance EV. Not anymore. Gotta love Tesla's chances - especially by 2020-ish. There will be competition, sure, but Elon's been asking for that for years now - that being the only thing he can't build within the four walls of his factories.
 
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It's funny that people are still debating about whether AP2 is at parity or better.

It's funny because this wouldn't even be a debate if it REALLY was time to move from AP1 to AP2.

For me to seriously consider AP2 on the merits of AP2 alone then it would have to do something substantially better. Like it would have to show me in the IC that a car is on my side, or a bike if it's a bike. Meaning it has to actively use the side cameras.

The EAP would have to work where it did lane changes automatically without my telling it to.

Once it gets there then I might strongly consider on the merits of AP2 alone. If not then it either has to be cost (the M3 looks pretty good), range (the M3 looks pretty good), or interior (quietness, looks, feel, etc).

For now I'm perfectly content with my 2015 Model S 70D. It's been three years, and I don't see any real evidence that it's out of date. I figure I have another year or two. I say this as someone who usually switches cars every 3 years or so.
 
I noticed you clipped my last post (full text below). The context is important -- most people have been raving about the latest update to 18.10.4. Andrej Karpathy also acknowledged ... [more of out of context facts and opinions removed]
Yes, context is absolutely important, but AP2 or Anrej Karpathy or any of the other stuff you mentioned was not in the context of Elon's reply, therefore reflects extrapolations by you, which is what I was saying is happening - by supplying your own context you can interpret Elon's "yes" in any way you want.

Let me give you an example:
Fact: Elon replies "Yes" to a twitter question "is it time for me to trade my AP1 car?"
Extraneous context: "Tesla has been selling FSD for over a year and half. Elon said 9 months ago FSD will for sure diverge in 3 months, 6 months for sure. FSD description says this can be used for car sharing with friends and family. "
Extrapolated conjecture: FSD Level 4 must be ready to deploy. Elon probably didn't release it in January because he didn't want to waste time getting regulatory approval twice. In a month or two all AP2 cars will drive themselves without a driver required. That will drop the AP1 car price a lot. That must be why Elon advised a guy to sell his AP1 car now.

Another possibility:
Fact: Elon replies "Yes" to a twitter question "is it time for me to trade my AP1 car?"
Extraneous context: The person asking a question lives in state XYZ. Elon is the head of Space X therefore has access to space related information other don't (video transmissions from the Starman Roadster?).
Extrapolated conjecture: Elon must know that state XYZ is about to hit by an asteroid, hence recommended to its resident to enjoy a new Tesla now because he knows that state will be blown to pieces in 6 months.

I can provide any number of extraneous contexts to interpret Elon's simple response. I gave the one about the asteroid to show how ridiculous of a conclusion you can come up with by providing a seemingly relevant context that wasn't in Elon's response to begin with.
 
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Let me give you an example:
Extraneous context: [blah, blah, blah]

Another possibility:
Extraneous context: [blah, blah, blah]

I can provide any number of extraneous contexts to interpret Elon's simple response. I gave the one about the asteroid to show how ridiculous of a conclusion you can come up with by providing a seemingly relevant context that wasn't in Elon's response to begin with.

Extraneous means "irrelevant or unrelated to the subject being dealt with." extraneous - Google Search

Using a little bit of common sense (I know - crazy, huh!), the rave AP2 reviews and videos splashed all over social media, the TMC poll with 84% voting that AP2 had surpassed AP1, Karpathy's comments, etc. are not "extraneous" -- they are obviously relevant and lead to a pretty straightforward conclusion that when Elon answered the question "is it now time for me to trade in my AP1 car. I've been waiting?" with a yes, he meant at least that he thought that AP2 was outperforming AP1.

Strange that this thread has jumped the shark. I guess it is very upsetting for some of the diehard AP2 critics to hear that most owners now think AP2 is outperforming AP1.

But with even more improvements in the pipeline, sorry but you are just going to have to get over it.:p
 
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Extraneous means "irrelevant or unrelated to the subject being dealt with." extraneous - Google Search

Using a little bit of common sense (I know - crazy, huh!), the rave AP2 reviews and videos splashed all over social media, the TMC poll with 84% voting that AP2 had surpassed AP1, Karpathy's comments, etc. are not "extraneous" -- they are obviously relevant and lead to a pretty straightforward conclusion that when Elon answered the question "is it now time for me to trade in my AP1 car. I've been waiting?" with a yes, he meant at least that he thought that AP2 was outperforming AP1.

Strange that this thread has jumped the shark. I guess it is very upsetting for some of the diehard AP2 critics to hear that most owners now think AP2 is outperforming AP1.

But with even more improvements in the pipeline, sorry but you are just going to have to get over it.:p
I wonder how many of the 84% own both ap1 and 2 cars up to date with the latest version of software. I’d suspect the results would be different. I think people are voting on ap2 now and how they remember ap1. Ap1 is still ahead and after the latest update, ap2 got better, but ap1 got significantly better as well. I made a video side by side on the same toad, same conditions, and ap2 simply has more disengagements. I’m currently making a new on with the new software, and the results so far are the same. I’ll keep the community posted. As I said before, I’m looking forward to ap2 to get “enhanced” and leapfrog ap1, but we’re just not there yet. You’re right about the thread jumping the shark tough lol.
 
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I wonder how many of the 84% own both ap1 and 2 cars up to date with the latest version of software. I’d suspect the results would be different. I think people are voting on ap2 now and how they remember ap1. Ap1 is still ahead and after the latest update, ap2 got better, but ap1 got significantly better as well. I made a video side by side on the same toad, same conditions, and ap2 simply has more disengagements. I’m currently making a new on with the new software, and the results so far are the same. I’ll keep the community posted. As I said before, I’m looking forward to ap2 to get “enhanced” and leapfrog ap1, but we’re just not there yet. You’re right about the thread jumping the shark tough lol.

The poll was set up with instructions for only owners of both AP1 and AP2 to respond from their personal experience:

"For those who have owned both AP1 and AP2 cars, would appreciate if you can respond to the poll. Please respond based on your own actual drive experiences and not speculations (and what you heard others say) Poll: Has AP2 18.10.4 surpassed AP1 in terms of performance?
Although I am sure some responded w/o noticing (or ignored) the instructions, there have been plenty of comments and videos from owners of AP1 and AP2 cars with a different experience from yours. But there are plenty of other threads about that already like these:

Poll: Has AP2 18.10.4 surpassed AP1 in terms of performance?
Version 2018.10.4
Software Update 2018.10.4
 
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Answer to question is simple.

Ignore Elon telling you AP2 will reach parity with AP1 by December (anyone remember that "Elon Time" based assertion?).
Test drive an AP2 car and decide if the age of your current AP1 car combined with the current performance of AP2 warrant a change.

My wife's AP1 car was in que when AP2 was announced. We could have changed the order but did not for just this reason. You can not continue to equate Elon Time to Real Clock Time and blame it on Elon (including taking his Yes as anything other than an invitation to test drive the latest AP2 iteration).
 
With 8 cameras on AP2 I wonder why we can't see the view from any of them on the MCU except the rear one? Why can't we record it on a USB drive? I mean with two "super computers" on board that should be possible, right? Any $50 dashcam does it. How about at least the wide angle front camera?
The AP2 ultrasonic sensors were also supposed to have double the range, but do they? Do they even detect anything close to 4 meters away?
 
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With 8 cameras on AP2 I wonder why we can't see the view from any of them on the MCU except the rear one? Why can't we record it on a USB drive? I mean with two "super computers" on board that should be possible, right? Any $50 dashcam does it. How about at least the wide angle front camera?
The AP2 ultrasonic sensors were also supposed to have double the range, but do they? Do they even detect anything close to 4 meters away?
They haven’t even been able to set the right scroll wheel on a Model 3 to do anything. You may be setting your software expectations too high...

For ultrasonic, I think there’s a just difference between what it detects and what it displays. Seems to only display stuff within a few feet, but detects much further out and the information just isn’t useful for the driver.
 
I have been given the opportunity to convert my Model 3 reservation to a purchase. Why should I do this? - My Model S has AP1 (or 1.5?), has air suspension, suitably long range battery (and other nice features) and has been the legend behind making the Model 3 so desirable. If I sold my MS, I would be downsizing in many categories, but upgrading to AP2. And, as has been discussed here, would I really be upgrading?
The reason I bought my MS was because I really, really wanted a Model 3...and could not wait. Now that I'm at this level, any reason to sell and re-buy?
MarketWatch is suggesting 70% of reservation holders are not buying a model 3- because (insert myth here). For me, I have a wonderful car and there is nothing better being offered. The teaser is AP2 - and it is simply not worth it (today). Perhaps when my MS is long in the tooth I'll be ready, but not in M3 configuration time frame.
 
Likely going to do a M3 for my daughter (actually me; she will have to borrow my "spare" car) provided I can get one later this year. The 70% of res holders not buying does not agree with the 18 month wait I was quoted (and that was with being on our fifth MS). Two men say they are Jesus; one of them must be lying.
 
Likely going to do a M3 for my daughter (actually me; she will have to borrow my "spare" car) provided I can get one later this year. The 70% of res holders not buying does not agree with the 18 month wait I was quoted (and that was with being on our fifth MS). Two men say they are Jesus; one of them must be lying.

I bet many of that 70% are waiting for AWD. I would not buy a car without AWD and many cars in this price segment are bought with AWD. Also some segment of those reservations are waiting for the $35K car. As a Tesla owner, you should be able to buy a Model 3 in a few months as they are releasing higher spec versions first.

Until all Model 3 variants are available, I don;t think we can really read into the demand equation too much.

When they offer AWD for the Model 3, Tesla will have to figure out a way to sweeten the Model S somehow with more updated tech or they will start losing Model S sales for model 3 sales. The flagship Model S is currently lacking some of the latest Tesla technology in the Model 3.