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Timeline Musings

Discussion in 'Model S' started by AnOutsider, Jan 4, 2012.

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  1. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    Here are a couple of old articles about the Volt. Probably quite representative of the auto industry.

    Clarification: GMs Chevy Volt Build Schedule for 2010

    Transition From Integration to Pre-Production Begins Now: Thousands of Chevy Volts to be Built Early Next Year

    So, GM only built less than 100 non-saleable Volts on the actual production assembly line. They expect to do all the "debugging" during that time. After that the actual production starts - but slowly. They make a small number of cars in the beginning per day - inspecting all of them carefully - ramping up as they gain confidence and fine tune the assembly process.
     
  2. engle

    engle Member

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    I talked to a regional sales manager I know who happened to be at the Santana Row store during my visit Weds. Jan. 4th. (I was there with my wife and son so we could take turns sitting in the black signature beta driver's seat to have the control panels demoed to us.)

    He said to expect test "rides" sometime during Q1, and test "drives" sometime during Q2. He said he can't wait because the car is so much fun to drive. The reason for "rides" before "drives" is they can't legally let non-Telsa people drive the car until it is certified by the NHTSA. He also mentioned some (all?) of the car's configuration has been frozen while it is currently undergoing NHTSA safety testing.

    I checked the NHTSA website and found lab test procedure for FMVSS 305 - "Electric Powered Vehicles: Electrolyte Spillage and Electrical Shock Protection" here:

    http://www.nhtsa.gov/DOT/NHTSA/Vehicle%20Safety/Test%20Procedures/Associated%20Files/TP-305-01.pdf

    On page 5, I noted that "Tests shall be completed at intervals as required in the contract. If not specified, the first test shall be conducted within 6 weeks after receiving the first delivered unit. Subsequent tests shall be completed in no longer than 1 week intervals unless otherwise specified by the COTR." I hope the Model S contract has a tighter timeline!

    The document is interesting and makes me feel safer about the Model S battery system once it passes these crash tests:

    "When tested to the procedures contained herein, each vehicle to which the standard applies shall not:

    • Spill more than 5.0 liters of propulsion battery electrolyte outside the passenger compartment, and no visible trace of electrolyte shall spill into the passenger compartment. Spillage is measured from the time the vehicle ceases motion after a barrier impact test until 30 minutes thereafter, and throughout any static rollover after a barrier impact test.
    • Have any propulsion battery system component located inside the passenger compartment move from the location in which they are installed
    • Have any propulsion battery system component located outside the passenger compartment enter the passenger compartment
    • Fail to maintain an electrical isolation of no less than 500 ohms/volt between the propulsion battery system and the vehicle’s electricity-conducting structure
    "

    The car at Santana Row is VIN #23 and it was built on the line in the factory. They were telling people they have "more than 7,000" reservations for the car.

    The person who demoed the awesome control panel told me it will have 4G in production. When I first sat in the driver's seat, it felt like no other car before it because of the two screens - like I'd just stepped into the future...

    My son also asked to see where headquarters is on the way to Santana Row. When I drove through the parking lot I noticed it is overflowing with employee cars, with many people forced to park outside normal parking spaces...
     
  3. Lloyd

    Lloyd Well-Known Member

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    Tesla batteries do not have any electrolyte, just coolant.
     
  4. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    They can't plan to cycle over that process multiple times with large quantities. Recalls are too expensive, as would be producing lots of cars and not delivering them. The chances that a larger batch of cars needs fixing after coming off the line, needs to be close to zero.
     
  5. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Anyone interested in the safety of electric should look up the video of Martin showing crash tests. He gives some interesting color to the process.

    As for QC, the History channel has a show called "Ultimate Factories" and about a 1/3 are car manufacturing (Corvette, Volt, Ferrari, Porsche). They usually cover testing rejects, what goes back in line, etc.
     
  6. JRod0802

    JRod0802 Member

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  7. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Aww, I was close
     
  8. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    This was posted by someone on the official boards; since real news is so scarce, I thought I should port it over:
     
  9. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    *rolls over and goes back to sleep*
     
  10. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

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    What I've heard is that RC's won't be in showrooms until mid-April. Conference call said they were building them this month. Those correlate, as they need RCs not only for quality evaluation, but also for crash testing and other government validations.

    Will Founders #1 delivered be a media event for Tesla, like DiCaprio getting Karma #1?
     
  11. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    Yea, no matter how many times I click "New Posts", the car isn't going to get here any faster. I keep trying though.
     
  12. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Ditto. I guess they'll be able to use RC's for test rides? It'll be interesting to see if they'll allow test drives in the RC's.

    I had heard that also. Anyone know how many Founders Series there are?

    After the Founders, come the Sig Special List so I guess that some of us will be hearing from Tesla soon....! :biggrin:
     
  13. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

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    Well, with production starting at about 1 car per day, but about 5000 Model S deliveries in 2012, they have to ramp up fairly quickly. With with 2013 to reach a level of 20,000 cars, I think they need to be ready to produce 1500 cars in Dec 2012 so they can do slightly more in Jan-Dec 2013.

    Optimistically, say they start by producing 1 car on July 1, and end by producing 70 cars on Dec 31. So they ramp up from 1 to 70 per day in 129 days. That ramp is certainly not linear - it'll start slow and then increase at an increasing rate, but if we look at it linearly, we end up with the equation y = 0.54x+1, which gives us 1 car on day 1 and about 70 on day 129. The total number of cars in the integral, which is about 4515 in this case, which is just under Tesla's promised 5000 cars in 2012 rate. So, not too bad.

    So, the Optimistic schedule may be:
    July 9 - Founders #1
    Aug 1- Sig #1 (17 production days, rate is about 9 cars/day)
    Sept 3 - Roadster Owner #1 (63 production days, rate now about 34 cars/day)
    Oct 8 - General Production #1 (71 production days, rate is now 38 cars/day, total of 1350 cars produced so far)
    Nov 15 - General Production #1000 (93 production days, rate is now 50 cars/day)
    Dec 11 - General Production #2000 (111 production days, rate is now 60 cars/day)
    Dec 31 - General Production #3165 (129 production days, rate is now 70 cars/day)

    If Founder #1 doesn't get his car until July 31, then the Sept & Oct dates get pushed back almost day for day, but the GP 2000 and above barely notice the difference.

    What do you think of this timeline?
     
  14. tnawara

    tnawara Member

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    As I'm P#3173, I believe you need to alter your formula to ensure at least eight more cars are built in 2012. ;)
     
  15. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

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    If Tesla makes its public commitment to produce 5000 cars in 2012, you're going to have a merry XMas!
     
  16. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    He's forgotten the 200 Canadian signatures.
     
  17. tnawara

    tnawara Member

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    A guy can only hope.
     
  18. FalconNinetyD

    FalconNinetyD Active Member

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    It all depends on which battery you and all the folks ahead of you are getting. I'm estimating that about 60% of the first 3000 P cars will get the 300 mile battery, so if you are one of those, you should see your car in 2012.

     
  19. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

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    Yeah, it's about 300 cars, so that's easily in the noise/error of my back of the envelope calcs.

    BTW, how will the various Signature models fit in? Is Tesla going to be ready to have the UK and Australia Signature models certified for sale in August? What regulations are needed for other countries and is Tesla really intending to hit all of those in August?
     
  20. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    @smorgasboard: I don't disagree with your linear calculations, but I think there are 2 points to consider...

    1. Tesla have said that configuration will be 3 months out. If the Founders are configuring now in early March, their delivery might (or might not!! Keep calm everyone...) be in June. Also we don't know how many Founders there are.

    2. Holding component inventory it will make most financial sense (cash flow) for Tesla to ramp up as fast as possible. We may see a steeper increase initially followed by a more linear increase afterwards.

    My post back above, was actually suggesting that Tesla might be asking us to consider configuring our Sig Special's fairly soon. Yes, I know that might be before we get a look at the RC's but there's plenty of discussion about that on other threads.
     

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