Timeline Musings

[Doug_G]

Yeah, it's about 300 cars, so that's easily in the noise/error of my back of the envelope calcs.

BTW, how will the various Signature models fit in? Is Tesla going to be ready to have the UK and Australia Signature models certified for sale in August? What regulations are needed for other countries and is Tesla really intending to hit all of those in August?

I don't know about other countries, but they've said that Canadian cars will roll three months after American. In other words, September. The first cars will of course be Signature, and they'll probably all get delivered in a month or two.

Currently the 200 Canadian Signatures are not sold out; they've got at least a couple of dozen left. There are another 300 or so P reservations. So we're looking at roughly 500 Canadian cars. I'd assume all the Canadian 85 kWh packs will be delivered before the end of the year. Assuming everything starts on schedule, of course.

 

[smorgasbord]

Also we don't know how many Founders there are.

I was told about 80 by someone who would know.

We may see a steeper increase initially followed by a more linear increase afterwards.

I actually think it'll start increasing slowly at first and then increase at an increasing rate, then a slowing of the increase. I've heard one per day to start. My guess is that could last a couple of weeks as they work kinks out. Then, my guess is once they can do, say a dozen cars per day they'll have things smooth enough to increase it quickly to, say 30 per hour. Then, the rate may slow as they have to deal with the new challenges of keeping machines fed smoothly. Also there are subassembly lines that may go more quickly than the main line, depending on JIT they've set things up. I also wouldn't be surprised that with quality checks along the way they may have to smooth out what happens when something doesn't pass muster so that it doesn't just stop the whole line - which it will at the beginning.

I'm no expert here - just guessing. I'm not in the industry (which should be obvious).

 

[Larry Chanin]

I'm guessing that the month of June will be devoted to producing the Founders, and they will be used to set the initial production rates for the Signatures produced in July.

Larry

 

[Norbert]

I could also imagine that they keep the numbers low for quite some time, until there is a certain amount of experience and feedback, and if all remains positive, go up to larger volumes relatively quickly.

 

[tnawara]

It all depends on which battery you and all the folks ahead of you are getting. I'm estimating that about 60% of the first 3000 P cars will get the 300 mile battery, so if you are one of those, you should see your car in 2012.

Oh, I know. I was just playing off of the closeness of @smorgasbord's Dec. 31st number to mine.

BTW - I didn't take the time to search through previous threads for the poll on battery size preferences, but do you know if those results come close to your 60% estimate?

Edit: Just scanned for it and it looks like 51.57% of us said that we're getting the 85KwH battery. However, that poll was taken before pricing was released.

 

[smorgasbord]

Edit: Just scanned for it and it looks like 51.57% of us said that we're getting the 85KwH battery. However, that poll was taken before pricing was released.

I suspect that a larger percentage of the early reservers are getting the 85 kWh battery - let's say 75%. I also think Tesla is privately thinking of delivering 6000 cars, but they want to say only 5000 to be safe. Don't forget some people doubt not only the 5000 number, but the July date.

If we say 1500 sigs and 250 Roadster reservations, then US GP numbers less than 3250 will almost certainly get their cars this year. Factor in a 25% delay rate due to smaller batteries, and another 15% drop out completely rate, and then factor in 6000 cars in 2012 and GP 6000 has a shot at being delivered in 2012.

BTW, I don't think July delivery means Founders get their cars in June. I think July deliveries means Founders get their cars in July. But who knows - Tesla may surprise all of us.

 

[Larry Chanin]

I also think Tesla is privately thinking of delivering 6000 cars, but they want to say only 5000 to be safe.

Earlier Tesla stated that they estimated that 2012 production would be between 5,500 and 6,000. Despite their more recent estimate of 5,000, like you I think that it is just possible that they may attempt to meet that initial estimate.

BTW, I don't think July delivery means Founders get their cars in June. I think July deliveries means Founders get their cars in July. But who knows - Tesla may surprise all of us.

I'm thinking that the Founders owners for the most part are Tesla employees and the "real" customers will be getting their cars in July with the Founders serving as in-house guinea pigs. Maybe just wishful thinking, but I think its still in the realm of possibility.

Larry

 

[brianman]

*rolls over and goes back to sleep*

Doh. I think this means 6 more weeks of no Design Studio updates.

 

[AnOutsider]

I'm thinking that the Founders owners for the most part are Tesla employees and the "real" customers will be getting their cars in July with the Founders serving as in-house guinea pigs. Maybe just wishful thinking, but I think its still in the realm of possibility.

Larry

Call me optimistic, but I agree.

Doh. I think this means 6 more weeks of no Design Studio updates.

Well my name ain't Punxsutawney (or however you spell it) but I do live in PA!

 

[mnx]

September? If the first car isn't delivered until July 1st, that means Oct 1st for the first deliveries in Canada no?

I share a birthday on September 5th with my oldest son. It would be quite the celebration around here if my sig perf was here for then.

I don't know about other countries, but they've said that Canadian cars will roll three months after American. In other words, September. The first cars will of course be Signature, and they'll probably all get delivered in a month or two.

Currently the 200 Canadian Signatures are not sold out; they've got at least a couple of dozen left. There are another 300 or so P reservations. So we're looking at roughly 500 Canadian cars. I'd assume all the Canadian 85 kWh packs will be delivered before the end of the year. Assuming everything starts on schedule, of course.

 

[Doug_G]

September? If the first car isn't delivered until July 1st, that means Oct 1st for the first deliveries in Canada no?

September-ish. Maybe October.

We can hope.

I share a birthday on September 5th with my oldest son. It would be quite the celebration around here if my sig perf was here for then.

Indeed. I'm just hoping to have my car well before the snow flies.

 

[smorgasbord]

I'm thinking that the Founders owners for the most part are Tesla employees and the "real" customers will be getting their cars in July with the Founders serving as in-house guinea pigs. Maybe just wishful thinking, but I think its still in the realm of possibility.

Just as Fisker made a big deal of delivering their first cars to Kleiner Perkins Partner Ray Lane and then Leonardo DiCaprio, Tesla will probably do the same and may want/need the month of July in which to do it. To think that Tesla will deliver 80 cars in June is, in my view, optimistic at this point in time. I'll wait until I see the RC's in the showroom before getting more optimistic than they've stated.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Just as Fisker made a big deal of delivering their first cars to Kleiner Perkins Partner Ray Lane and then Leonardo DiCaprio, Tesla will probably do the same and may want/need the month of July in which to do it. To think that Tesla will deliver 80 cars in June is, in my view, optimistic at this point in time. I'll wait until I see the RC's in the showroom before getting more optimistic than they've stated.

I would be surprised if Tesla patterned anything after Fisker. :biggrin:

Perhaps you have inside information, but 80 Founders cars seems a bit high. Even if that number is correct, if as you and Nigel heard the Release Candidates will be in stores by mid April, then there is nothing preventing Tesla from starting the Founders in June even if some carry over into July. I do agree that I am being optimistic, since a lot can happen between now and July.

Larry

 

[Jaff]

I know exactly when my Model S will arrive....


Right in the middle of my 2 week vacation (first two weeks of November)...:cursing::biggrin:

 

[Doug_G]

I know exactly when my Model S will arrive....

Right in the middle of my 2 week vacation (first two weeks of November)...:cursing::biggrin:

Don't worry, I'll keep it for you. :biggrin:

 

[Jaff]

Your Model S is only 4 behind mine so they'll probably be on the same truck! :biggrin:

Hey, if you have to pick mine up, please remember to keep it in the garage, eh?...(I don't want any of that nasty, early season Ottawa snow on it! ) :biggrin:

 

[Todd Burch]

September? If the first car isn't delivered until July 1st, that means Oct 1st for the first deliveries in Canada no?

I share a birthday on September 5th with my oldest son. It would be quite the celebration around here if my sig perf was here for then.

I'm also a Sept. 5 baby...as US #P1577 expecting to get the 85kWh pack, I'm expecting delivery in mid-September.

 

[dsm363]

Your Model S is only 4 behind mine so they'll probably be on the same truck! :biggrin:

Hey, if you have to pick mine up, please remember to keep it in the garage, eh?...(I don't want any of that nasty, early season Ottawa snow on it! ) :biggrin:

And plugged in, right?:smile:

 

[Robert.Boston]

I'm also a Sept. 5 baby...as US #P1577 expecting to get the 85kWh pack, I'm expecting delivery in mid-September.

Hmmm, I'm P1635, 85kWh pack. I'm telling myself Halloween so that I can be pleasantly surprised.

 

[smorgasbord]

US #P1577 expecting to get the 85kWh pack, I'm expecting delivery in mid-September.

P1 is about car # 1830 (80 Founder + 1500 Sig + 250 Roadster) All of those are 85kWh batteries (I knocked 10% off the Roadster numbers). Assuming 75% of the GP people before you are also 85 kWh batteries, then P1577 is about car # 3013. Even if they ship Founders #1 on July 1, they'll need all of July for Founders cars since they start at one per day. Labor day is then only 5-6 weeks away, which to get to you means a rate of 2200 cars/month in August. They're not even going to do that in 2013. Sorry.

I'm Roadster #270 and I don't expect mine until October. If Founders #1 is more like July 30 than July 1, I could be lucky to have it by Halloween. A lot depends on the ramp up speed. I still think it increases very slowly at first due to quality issues, then gets to a moderate rate (~40/day) pretty quickly, then the acceleration slows as pure logistics takes over (getting raw materials in, getting finished cars out of the way, etc.). Any subassembly snafu could stop production if they don't have a backlog previously built up. Do not underestimate how tough it'll be for Tesla to get to 75 cars/day on a brand spanking new assembly line.