Timing of 2023 Model S LR purchase?

[EVRider-FL]

I'm considering replacing my 2018 Model S100D (in the US) with new 2023 Model S Long Range in the coming months, for several reasons:

• More range and faster supercharging for road trips.
• Access to new features not available on "legacy" cars like mine.
• New warranty (mine just expired).

I'm trying to decide when to actually order the car. I'm not thinking about financial considerations such as possible price changes or used car values, but I am interested in possible hardware changes coming to the Model S that would impact my timing. I know that Tesla doesn't announce hardware changes before they go into production, and most of what I've read in these forums and elsewhere is speculation, but maybe some of you have more insight into changes that are likely to happen in 2023, and if so I'd like to hear from you. Note that I'm not interested in replacing my S with a 3 or Y; we have a 3 also, but the S is a better (and more comfortable) option for our road trips.

The possible changes that would have the biggest impact on my timing are HW4, better cameras, and HD radar. I'm also under the impression that the S and X still have ultrasonic sensors, even if they're not being used, and I would probably want to buy before Tesla does away with them, in case they reverse their decision not to use them.

I haven't kept up with Model S changes since the refresh in 2021. Have there been any significant changes since then? Do all the new hardware features that were introduced in (and since) 2021 actually work now? I recall reading that some of new features weren't initially functional, but maybe I'm mistaken. Have there been any changes to the yoke wheel since 2021?

I drove a 2021 Model X for a few miles last year, and although I'm not a fan of the yoke wheel or lack of physical controls, they weren't as bad as I was expecting.

If you know of potential changes, please cite your source(s), preferably something other than tweets from Elon.

Thanks, and Happy Holidays!

 

[ucmndd]

Bottom line, if any of those rumored upcoming features are critical to you, don’t order until they’re announced. Tesla is far too volatile and unpredictable a company to try and time an order on anticipated changes. Just don’t do it.

If Tesla’s confidentiality filing with the FCC is to be believed, the new radar should surface in Q1 and I suspect that would be part of any “HW4” suite that is forthcoming. But again, if getting this or not is a deal breaker for you, then wait until it’s a sure thing.

Tesla says it is adding radar in its cars next month amid self-driving suite concerns

Tesla told the FCC that it plans to market a new radar starting next month. The move raises even more concerns about self-driving capabilities.

electrek.co

 

[DerbyDave]

I agree with @ucmndd. Before ordering, establish the future tech that would significantly influence your decision. I would be interested of thinking of a time-flexible purchase decision of the HW4, added cameras, and the new HD Radar also the new battery technology implementation. In 2020 when I bought my S, 400+ miles range was the bottom line deal maker. I was also interested in the Cybertruck (glad I didn't wait for its expected intro in 2021), as I am assuming it will be the first to implement the new tech for the next couple of years for Tesla. In another 1 1/2 years when my warranty expires, maybe it will be in production, or the S will have a major tech redesign. I wouldn't own any Tesla for long out of warranty, and so a decision point would be to keep my curent S with an extended warranty, but I love tech, so we'll have to see what time brings. Also, the federal incentives would influence my purchase of they are still around. Once I order, I would nopt worry about new tech that is in the works. Got to make a decision and not turn back.

 

[EVRider-FL]

Thanks for your input. The Electrek article referenced above, which I had seen before, makes the HD radar sound likely in the near future, but the prediction about a “new suite of self-driving hardware” is speculation, at least based on the article‘s content. I’m in no rush, so I can wait and see what happens in the next couple of months before deciding. I wouldn’t order with the expectation of receiving new hardware until it was in production.

I’m also aware of the fact that new hardware sometimes means a temporary degradation in functionality until the firmware catches up. The most memorable example was when AP2 (HW2) was introduced, and it took 12-18 months for AP2 to achieve parity with AP1. That’s why I asked if there’s anything in the 2021 refresh that is still not working as expected, especially anything that works better in older models.

 

[SoCal Buzz]

Thanks for your input. The Electrek article referenced above, which I had seen before, makes the HD radar sound likely in the near future, but the prediction about a “new suite of self-driving hardware” is speculation, at least based on the article‘s content. I’m in no rush, so I can wait and see what happens in the next couple of months before deciding. I wouldn’t order with the expectation of receiving new hardware until it was in production.

I’m also aware of the fact that new hardware sometimes means a temporary degradation in functionality until the firmware catches up. The most memorable example was when AP2 (HW2) was introduced, and it took 12-18 months for AP2 to achieve parity with AP1. That’s why I asked if there’s anything in the 2021 refresh that is still not working as expected, especially anything that works better in older models.

Since the 2021+ release, I think the key updates to date include:

- Updated taillight design and charge port.
- New Matrix LED headlights.
- MCU upgraded from 8 to 16 Gb for Steam / games.
- Missing motors added for display tilt feature.

I replaced my 2018 S with 2021 and have been very happy with all of the next generation improvements, which I’m sure you’ve researched. Regarding 2023 enhancements there will always be something, likely related to AP and radar at this point. I personally don’t think it’s worth waiting for theoretical FSD upgrades given their track record (but I think AP is fine, and don’t care about non-highway use).

 

[SoCal Buzz]

And no changes to the yoke whatsoever, except Elon’s unfulfilled statement that horn activation would be enabled via pushing center airbag cover. I like the yoke, except for turn signal and horn buttons.

I am hoping for future software update with ability to customize instrument cluster and make use of scroll wheel for setting fan speed, changing follow distance, scrolling contacts, etc. (similar to legacy design).