Tips on used/CPO MS for M3 holdover?

[BEEZR]

The only other option I would REMOTELY consider is AWD. I have AWD Acura TL. But in SoCal we don't have 'real' weather, and I felt the money I spent on AWD for the Acura wasn't worth it. The southwest seems to be a big Tesla market, so I'm thinking in terms of resale, having a RWD car won't be a big disadvantage when I go to sell. Thoughts on RWD vs AWD for resale?

Like you said, I think in SoCal it doesn't really matter to have AWD. It might actually help you with resale because you'll appeal to a broader market with a lower price. The resale difference then between RWD and AWD will be less than the cost now...

 

[30seconds]

I'm not sure that maximize resale is the way to go. It seems more like you want to minimize the difference between your purchase price and the eventual resale price. So you may also want to consider a car with a lower initial purchase price (like a 2013 P85) as an alternative.

 

[abasile]

If you like visiting the SoCal mountains regularly, in winter, then AWD might be worthwhile for you. It's a drag to have to drive with tire chains, but the highway patrol doesn't normally require chains for AWD vehicles.

On the other hand, considering the trend toward warmer winters with less snow, this may be less of a concern.

 

[TravelSD80]

Now that I've cleared the drool from being on the M3 list and looking at 'hold me over' MS, I'm thinking the more prudent thing is to not get a MS and just wait for my M3. I'm a road warrior, and not home much. No commute, and just run short errands. While no doubt the MS is a great car, even losing $10K depreciation on a CPO is worth a lot of options on a M3. I also have a hunch that APv2 may be out by 2018, and bigger batteries for the MS. So that could make selling today's CPO even harder or depress the resale market. Pushing the patience button very hard. Tesla told me today in 2-3 weeks there will be a flood of CPOs. Given the tech advances coming in 2 years I just think it's too big of a gamble to bank on an acceptable amount of depreciation even on a CPO.

 

[Ulmo]

In general, the greater the price paid for a used car, the greater the risk of a subsequent, higher rate of depreciation. Over time, prices on used cars tend to become compressed, that is, the price difference between a vehicle with more options relative to the base model tends to grow smaller.

In the used market, as long as the price premium for Autopilot-capable cars remains high, I am very skeptical that paying for Autopilot makes sense from the standpoint of long term depreciation. Further, over time, there will likely be improvements to the Autopilot hardware that will make today's Autopilot cars less desirable.

Personally, my plan is to buy the least expensive used Model S that meets the needs of my family. Later, we may choose to buy a new Model 3 (I have a reservation) with more features, and keep both cars.

I especially like your post because everything in it rings true to me in my experience and observations.

 

[AlanSqB]

Now that I've cleared the drool from being on the M3 list and looking at 'hold me over' MS, I'm thinking the more prudent thing is to not get a MS and just wait for my M3. I'm a road warrior, and not home much. No commute, and just run short errands. While no doubt the MS is a great car, even losing $10K depreciation on a CPO is worth a lot of options on a M3. I also have a hunch that APv2 may be out by 2018, and bigger batteries for the MS. So that could make selling today's CPO even harder or depress the resale market. Pushing the patience button very hard. Tesla told me today in 2-3 weeks there will be a flood of CPOs. Given the tech advances coming in 2 years I just think it's too big of a gamble to bank on an acceptable amount of depreciation even on a CPO.

I feel your pain. My plan all along has been to get a CPO or lightly optioned Model S at the end of this year to hold me over until the 3 arrives as a daily driver and the S could go to my wife. However, after driving her F150 for the past week, I'm just not sure I want to be driving around anything that wide every day. The S is only about 2" narrower than an F150 truck and I struggle greatly to park that thing here in our parking-unfriendly city. Maybe I should be looking at getting two M3's.

Then again, I just don't know if I'm going to be able to hold out another year...

 

[TravelSD80]

My local Tesla sales guy called me back today, to make sure I really wanted to cancel my lightly configured new Model S. Yes I was sure, but took 20 minutes to get that point across. I'm still on the fence about a CPO. I just can't get it out of my head that something major like APv2 will be announced around the time the M3 ships, which could depress non-AP(or v1) prices even further. The rate at which Tesla innovates and changes features really makes it hard to "predict" the resale value in 2 years.

 

[valkeriefire]

I hate to break it to you but your M3 will be outdated within 1 year or two of release also. This tech is changing so fast you can't keep up with it. It's one the major cons of this car, but it's also one of the joys. My primary joy comes from not buying gasoline, and that will never change even when Autopilot gets better and new features are added.

 

[TravelSD80]

I hate to break it to you but your M3 will be outdated within 1 year or two of release also. This tech is changing so fast you can't keep up with it. It's one the major cons of this car, but it's also one of the joys. My primary joy comes from not buying gasoline, and that will never change even when Autopilot gets better and new features are added.

I don't doubt that either. But I'd rather get a fully customized M3 and hold on to it for 5+ years, than a stripped down new MS. Maybe if I can find a good deal on a CPO I might spring for that in the interim. It might also be worthwhile to do a 3 year lease on a M3, then outright buy the next generation and make that the keeper. So hard when tech changes! Easy with a $600 iPhone, but not with a $60K car.

 

[valkeriefire]

Valid points. If I had money to burn I'd just lease Tesla's but I'm just a humble civil servant.