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Tire efficiency vs Navigation charging estimates

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I'm looking at buying a new set of tires that is known to be 10-15% less efficient than the OEMs. Does anyone know if the Tesla navigation system eventually considers the decrease in efficiency when scheduling charging stops? Does the car uses my own historical consumption when performing the calculations? Recently I planned a 600 mile trip to Montreal and the car initially scheduled 3 stops with a typical 15% remaining charge at each stop before getting to my destination with a remaining charge of 12%. I'm worried that with the less efficient tires the car will overestimate the remaining charges. I understand that the car may simply divert me to another charger or ask me to slowdown but I'm interested to hear from Tesla owners about their experience on long trips with less efficient tires. Was your car reasonably accurate with its estimates?
 
I am preparing for my first road trip as well. I have many of your concerns. This is what I have done. I modeled several trips using A Better Route Planner. I changed vehicle settings kw/m usage at 65mph to gauge the impact of +/- 10-15% range impact due to a tire change. I set my personal driving habits in as well. I set max speed at 75mph and cruise speed at speed limit + 8%. I added weight for passengers and luggage. I did end up buying a second set of high efficiency tire, so my scenario is just the opposite.

I came to the conclusion that since most stops are adding about 50% charge to the car, If I add an extra 5% at charge, that gives me an extra 5% cushion before the next recharge is required. That 5% added charge is actually an extra 10% improvement in range for 50% charge utilization between stops. The added 5% is generally no more than an extra 5 minutes to charge in the middle power band of the battery. I plan to do that until I am comfortable with range predictions by the Tesla Nav and ABRP.

In the end, I believe the car will use your current vehicle efficiency average to estimate required stops, not some theoretical average. It will continually update with actual usage until you get to the next stop. It will adjust as needed.
 
I am preparing for my first road trip as well. I have many of your concerns. This is what I have done. I modeled several trips using A Better Route Planner. I changed vehicle settings kw/m usage at 65mph to gauge the impact of +/- 10-15% range impact due to a tire change. I set my personal driving habits in as well. I set max speed at 75mph and cruise speed at speed limit + 8%. I added weight for passengers and luggage. I did end up buying a second set of high efficiency tire, so my scenario is just the opposite.

I came to the conclusion that since most stops are adding about 50% charge to the car, If I add an extra 5% at charge, that gives me an extra 5% cushion before the next recharge is required. That 5% added charge is actually an extra 10% improvement in range for 50% charge utilization between stops. The added 5% is generally no more than an extra 5 minutes to charge in the middle power band of the battery. I plan to do that until I am comfortable with range predictions by the Tesla Nav and ABRP.

In the end, I believe the car will use your current vehicle efficiency average to estimate required stops, not some theoretical average. It will continually update with actual usage until you get to the next stop. It will adjust as needed.
I realize it's only been 2 weeks since your posting but have you had a chance to test your theory? Is adding 5% working for you?
 
Yes, +5% worked well for me. Estimates topically are right on, +/- 1%. One instance, I came up 3% below estimated charge remaining, so my +5 seemed to work. I decided to target 15% at charge stops, and overcharged whenever possible.

I'm getting ready for return leg on my trip. I will update next weekend when I get home.
 
I made it home yesterday. Car performed really well based on my experience, except for Autopilot, but that is another story.

total consumption for round trip plus excursions of 2775 miles was 833kWh or 300 Wh/mi. Coincidentally, that was the number I used in ABRP for planning. ABRP and Tesla were virtually identical in projecting charge stops and percent charge. I will perform some more detailed analysis over the weekend, as I get time when I am not golfing.
 
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I swapped out my Goodyears with Conti DWS 06-Plus on my Induction wheels, in 255/45-20.

I then drove from Seattle to San Jose a few weeks later... Navigation Estimate was pretty spot on. The only time the estimate deviated, was when I was driving thru Shasta. But that's only becuase previously I was driving like 70-75 while driving thru Oregon, but when I got to California I was averaging 80. However, the car figured it out quickly. There was never any point where I had any anxiety... Ok, maybe when I went to the Oregon Caves, I had anxiety, but I put my faith in the car's estimate when charging in Grants Pass... It said I would arrive back in Grants Pass with like 17%.

Once I got to the Oregon Caves, I knew I had to run camp mode for the duration I was there, because not all of us could go on the tour... Anyways, the tour ended up going a bit longer than I thought, becuase our tour group was really into it... Anyways, by the time we got back, the car was saying that we would have 4% when we got back to the supercharger... However, I figured it was low-balling me, becuase I was really hammering it trying to get to the Oregon Caves, becuase I thought I was going to miss my tour-appointment time.... So on the way back to the supercharger, I was driving very relaxed... I ended up arriving at the SC with 13%, which is pretty spot on to the car's initial estimate of 17%, considering I had camp mode running for almost 4 hours while at the caves...

For the rest of my trip to the Bay area, I found the trip estimate to be just as accurate with my DWS as it was with the Goodyears...
 
Related question. Getting new 255/50/19 Vredesteins tomorrow for my Model Y LR. I have heard this taller tire will underestimate distance traveled by about 3%. If so how does this effect car’s ability to accurately estimate SOC at destination? What calculation could counter inaccuracy? Thank you.
 
Related question. Getting new 255/50/19 Vredesteins tomorrow for my Model Y LR. I have heard this taller tire will underestimate distance traveled by about 3%. If so how does this effect car’s ability to accurately estimate SOC at destination? What calculation could counter inaccuracy? Thank you.
It's not going to affect it. It will take into account your average consumption /efficiency/etc.
I went on a 1600 mile road trip with a slightly taller tire, and the estimated arrival SoC was still spot on.