Tired of the $100,000 Car

[Vitold]

(I'm aware that this survey is BS but even their numbers don't warrant their conclusion)

This site Global Rich List shows that there are 5 million (that does not even include households where two people work) people earning more than 100k.

If 20% would buy Tesla - that's 1000k Model S and Model X sold every 8 years. Tesla has sold 160k vehicles so far...

 

[Chopr147]

I have had (my wife) an entry level "luxury" car for the past 7 years. My wife drives the Lexus ES350 and gets a new one every 3 years. She loves her car and I believed it to be a nice quiet ride with a little pep to it when needed. Maybe because I was driving a Yukon XL every day and i would take her car to the store etc.. Now that I am driving an S , her ES350 seems loud with road noise and slow. I have such a different perception of her car now and do not want to drive it ever Nevermind the dealer BS I go thru every 3 years.
The S is a luxury car whether it's a 60 or 100 kwh. Yes Tesla could do a better job with the fit/finish but I test drove the BMW and MB S550 and came away impressed with the interior but thats it. The rest of the car cannot live up to a Tesla

 

[Hota]

If you increase the gas tank size on a combustion car, you don't get a faster car.

If you increase the battery size on an EV, you get a faster car.


So no. The battery is not analogous to the gas tank.

Teslas don't get faster just from a battery size increase from 75kWh to 90 or 100kWh.

What makes the S90/100 faster are the larger motors and the larger connectors to allow more current to flow - not the battery itself.

If I took the battery from a 100D and swapped it into my 60D, the car would not be any faster and would likely be slower due to the increased weight and no increased power output from the motors.

 

[Chopr147]

The Rich Like Other Luxury Brands Over Tesla (TSLA), UBS Survey Shows

UBS analyst Colin Langan weighed on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) after results of their survey which showed high income households choose other premium brands over Tesla.

The firm's UBS Evidence Lab Electric Vehicle Survey of 9,400 individuals across 6 countries shows that coming BEV models mostly meet consumer expectations and that BEV penetration is likely to take off in premium first. Within the results we see that highincome households ($100k+) strongly prefer other luxury and quasi-luxury brands over Tesla.

When polling all individuals on whether they prefer buying an all-electric car from incumbent brands vs. TSLA, only 13-31% of respondents said they are likely to choose an incumbent brand compared to 20-44% who would choose Tesla. However, when looking at only $100k+ income households, 41-52% would choose an incumbent brand compared to only 20-29% who would choose Tesla.

"Given that we believe high-income households are more likely to purchase a Tesla, these results suggest that Tesla will face stiff competition as other premium OEMs begin to launch their own EV models in 2018," .Langan said. "We remain cautious on Model S demand as a result."

Further, the survey showed 43% consider 200 miles an acceptable minimum range for a single charge (Model 3 is expected to be ~200 miles). This percentage increases to 69% for 300 miles (expected range of upcoming German premium brands).

In addition, with all else being equal, 54% of respondents would expect an EV to be cheaper or the same cost as the equivalent ICE vehicle. However, based on calls with EV experts, they expect EVs to cost 11-20% more. Consumers also underestimate the cost of the battery pack. The median US consumer expects a replacement EV battery to cost $2,001-5,000 (weighted average of $4,200). They estimate that with repair cost, the battery replacement will cost ~$7,000 by 2025.

The firm maintained a Sell rating and price target of $160 on TSLA.

How many of those 100k earners took a Tesla test drive? I am one of those 5 million or so , test drove BMW etc....... Once I test drove a Tesla model S i could not remember why I bothered looking elsewhere

 

[Vitold]

Most of it: Worldwide, Median Household Income About $10,000

Income surveys are grossly inaccurate and skew numbers in favor of capitalist systems while under-valuing people who barter and/or have low cost of living.

 

[miked112]

Seems like the assumption a lot of people make is that when the established luxury brands enter this market they'll be able to offer state-of-the art electric cars with the same luxurious materials and appointments as their ICE cars, at the same price point. It may be that MB or BMW have access to innovations or economies of scale that bring some advantage but I think there will be a rude awakening, either in terms of price or downscaled experience - an S-class electric with a C-class interior, or a 200K price point. Or both.

 

[kort677]

In which part of the world $100k+ is a 'highincome household'?

anyplace outside of the east west coasts of the US

 

[number12]

(I'm aware that this survey is BS but even their numbers don't warrant their conclusion)

This site Global Rich List shows that there are 5 million (that does not even include households where two people work) people earning more than 100k.

If 20% would buy Tesla - that's 1000k Model S and Model X sold every 8 years. Tesla has sold 160k vehicles so far...

People who's "households" earn $100,000 should not buy a Tesla. Bottom line. It is not yet can be an only car for any type of house household. What if an emergency happens and you have no charge? Call an uber?

Up that number to $250K minimum, and that is probably not even in big cities that should be able to afford this car.

Then drop that 20% way down... what type of new tech car company hopes to amass 20% of the wealthiest peoples car choice?

Lets all just be realistic here.

 

[Vitold]

People who's "households" earn $100,000 should not buy a Tesla. Bottom line. It is not yet can be an only car for any type of house household. What if an emergency happens and you have no charge? Call an uber?

Up that number to $250K minimum, and that is probably not even in big cities that should be able to afford this car.

Then drop that 20% way down... what type of new tech car company hopes to amass 20% of the wealthiest peoples car choice?

Lets all just be realistic here.

Like I said the survey is BS just because basing it on income level alone is a poor metric. Cost of living varies (as you point out) and others may have enough wealth to afford one while earning very little income.

 

[RogerHScott]

I thought it was. Isn't the motor analogous to the engine.

Don't get carried away by analogies -- they are aids to understanding, but they are not understanding.
The battery in a Tesla is better likened to the gas tank, fuel lines, fuel pump, carburetor, and fuel injectors. It provides the energy
that spins the spinning thing that turns the wheels.

 

[idoco]

Bottom line. It is not yet can be an only car for any type of house household. What if an emergency happens and you have no charge?

So disagree.

I have been driving electric for eight plus years. We currently have three electric cars and no "emergency ICE". No problem. Many trips 700 miles plus. Never have had "no charge".

On the other hand ICE cars frequently "have no charge". That's why you see people on the side of the road walking with a gas can in hand.

In an emergency having an ICE does not guarantee you will have transportation. During Superstorm Sandy many people were unable to buy gas or had to drive an hour to find gas (storms had knocked out power to gas stations).

Your statement implies that only having an EV is worse than only having an ICE. If your vehicle breaks, EV or ICE, you need to find alternative transportation...no difference. In fact you're probably less likely to have your EV breaking than an ICE.

 

[RogerHScott]

If you increase the battery size on an EV, you get a faster car.

How do you figure? All else being equal, you've increased the weight, slowing down the same engine (acceleration-wise). About
the only thing you get "automatically" might be increased range.

 

[Hota]

I thought it was. Isn't the motor analogous to the engine.

In my mind that's a good analogy. To expand upon it:

Motor(s) = Engine
Wiring = Fuel lines & fuel pump
High Voltage Connectors = Injectors
Battery = Fuel Tank
Electrons = Gasoline

 

[RogerHScott]

If you don't think the guy buying a 35k car works as hard as the guy buying a 100k car and should not be treated the same that says a lot about yourself.

What does how hard they work have to do with anything? By that logic a hard-working person who buys 5-year extended warranty for
more money shouldn't be treated any "better" (i.e., longer warranty service) than an equally hard-working person who buys a 2-year
warranty for less money. It isn't about how much you have -- it's about how much you've chosen to spend on a given choice and thus
what's important to you.

 

[RogerHScott]

Elon Musk says EVs will sell when somebody makes one that is Compelling. I believe that assumption is incorrect. I believe they will buy them when the MSRP of the ICE models and EVs match. A Camry is NOT compelling. A Corolla is NOT compelling. And a Prius is the opposite of the Compelling.

I think Elon's point is that if EVs are compelling they can compete with ICE cars that are cheaper.

 

[RogerHScott]

The Rich Like Other Luxury Brands Over Tesla (TSLA), UBS Survey Shows

UBS analyst Colin Langan weighed on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) after results of their survey which showed high income households choose other premium brands over Tesla.

The firm's UBS Evidence Lab Electric Vehicle Survey of 9,400 individuals across 6 countries shows that coming BEV models mostly meet consumer expectations and that BEV penetration is likely to take off in premium first. Within the results we see that highincome households ($100k+) strongly prefer other luxury and quasi-luxury brands over Tesla.

When polling all individuals on whether they prefer buying an all-electric car from incumbent brands vs. TSLA, only 13-31% of respondents said they are likely to choose an incumbent brand compared to 20-44% who would choose Tesla. However, when looking at only $100k+ income households, 41-52% would choose an incumbent brand compared to only 20-29% who would choose Tesla.

"Given that we believe high-income households are more likely to purchase a Tesla, these results suggest that Tesla will face stiff competition as other premium OEMs begin to launch their own EV models in 2018," .Langan said. "We remain cautious on Model S demand as a result."

Further, the survey showed 43% consider 200 miles an acceptable minimum range for a single charge (Model 3 is expected to be ~200 miles). This percentage increases to 69% for 300 miles (expected range of upcoming German premium brands).

In addition, with all else being equal, 54% of respondents would expect an EV to be cheaper or the same cost as the equivalent ICE vehicle. However, based on calls with EV experts, they expect EVs to cost 11-20% more. Consumers also underestimate the cost of the battery pack. The median US consumer expects a replacement EV battery to cost $2,001-5,000 (weighted average of $4,200). They estimate that with repair cost, the battery replacement will cost ~$7,000 by 2025.

The firm maintained a Sell rating and price target of $160 on TSLA.

Surveys about hypotheticals are basically meaningless. Do a survey of where people have actually spent their money.

 

[sorka]

Okay, not a troll, just confusing. The Model S is a relatively low volume car like an Aston Martin. It also has a feature that you are paying extra for. It's a bit like buying a car with a V12 engine. So is your point to start seeing it as being in a different group of vehicles?

Isn't Aston Martin's yearly volume across all products only about 3400 units? That would put it at about 1/20th, of Tesla, right?

 

[RogerHScott]

People who's "households" earn $100,000 should not buy a Tesla. Bottom line. It is not yet can be an only car for any type of house household.

Why do you jump to the conclusion that the Tesla would be their only vehicle? I suspect much less than 10% of Tesla owners do not
also own an ICE car.

 

[sorka]

Teslas don't get faster just from a battery size increase from 75kWh to 90 or 100kWh.

What makes the S90/100 faster are the larger motors and the larger connectors to allow more current to flow - not the battery itself.

If I took the battery from a 100D and swapped it into my 60D, the car would not be any faster and would likely be slower due to the increased weight and no increased power output from the motors.

That's not even remotely true. The original 60, 85, and P85 all have exactly the same motor. The 60 was limited by battery power. The 85 was limited below the P85 by software. The 60 compared to the P85 is 6 second vs 4 second car strictly based on how much voltage the car could put out at 1300 amps. The 0-60 difference would be even greater had the P85 not been traction limited.

The P100D battery puts out a staggering amount of more power than the 90 battery partly due to less voltage drop because of capacity, more current, partly because of capacity and because of the way the cells are physically linked.

 

[contaygious]

But you do get a nicer interior for upgrading. Plus, cooler accents, seats etc just like upgrading to an M. My tesla has a nicer interior than a m3 or panamera as far as I know and my parents have both.