TM3 Ludicrous != 2.8 sec?

[strider]

I'm fairly sure Tesla would rather sell 100k Model 3 P75D at 60k USD and a 20k USD profit margin than sell 20k at 100k USD and a 60k USD profit margin. They would make 1.2 billion on the latter, but 2 billion on the former.

You're completely making up those demand/sales numbers. Who are you to say they wouldn't sell 100k at $100k USD? That is an incredible amount of performance for that price. The closest things in the ICE world start at $300k and go up from there.

 

[strider]

Here let me help you
85 kWh Performance Model S 5YJSA1H22FFP76920 | Tesla

Ok.... That says $80k. A long way from your $60k. Not to mention it says 3.2 sec to 60 right on the page so that's not the right comparison. Maybe we need to be looking at v1 P90DLs.

 

[samsonm3]

Ok.... That says $80k. A long way from your $60k. Not to mention it says 3.2 sec to 60 right on the page so that's not the right comparison. Maybe we need to be looking at v1 P90DLs.

I agree, but if you consider discount and depreciation factor in Elons timescale you are looking at similar inventory this time in 2019. And if they are advertising Model 3 @ 90K I am just saying its not going to look attractive. not to mention other OEM might have also entered the market.

My point is Tesla doesnt hold back on performance infact Elon had mentioned this was actually a byproduct of BEV. Its nothing they have to work too hard to do they just capitalized on the instant torque and others didnt. Tesla to me will only hold back if there was an Engineering or Physical barriers in achieving these feats. They always try to max and get the bettter out of their teslas, I dont think they will tone it done like other OEM's in the fear of getting more competitive to their own fleet of vehicles.

Then there is no difference between and ICE OEM and Tesla. the only reason why nissan leaf, bolt dont have similar performance is they are controlling the rate of discharge not incapable of. They claim it has to do with battery life, we all know though it might be true they also dont want a bolt to do better performance than a Camaro ZL1. Thats my view on Tesla. but if you think otherwise I respect that. We will know in 6 months I guess.

 

[daniel]

What you are thinking of is not "Ludicrous", but "battery pre-heat" I think. Yes, you need that to get the fastest possible acceleration, but it will not be a slow car without. It may be 0.1-2 seconds slower? Maybe 0.3? So you will still be able to leaves all other cars way behind - except Teslas with "Ludicrous" that has prepared with "battery pre-heat"

There is no 10 minute limit between runs even in Ludicrous Plus mode but if the stater or battery gets too warm it will reduce power.

Ludicrous is kind of like the Roadster's Performance mode. It allows max energy flow from the battery and quickens the throttle response. you can absolutely drive around with it on all the time. [...]

Bottom line, what you imagined for Ludicrous is true. It's the top of the line and you can just leave it in Ludicrous mode all the time and enjoy. No special preparation required. Now we just wait....

Thanks to all the above posters for the information about Ludicrous.

I've been seeing banner ads on this site for the "new" Porsche Panamera and 911. Both of these have power and performance numbers that are not as good as baseline Model S. (0-60 in 4.4 vs Tesla 4.2). Prices are comparable to Teslas.
It will be hard for them to sell their premium performance sports cars against offerings from Tesla.

The ad server sees "car site" and serves up car ads. There is no thinking or intelligence involved.

I want my performance ludicrous Model 3 to do 0-60 in 3.14s. I could see Elon being that nerdy.

We can only hope.

As EM says himself, have you tried steam locomotives?

The ICE supercar has gone way past its best-by date and it has come to the point one has to explain WHY it is a different experience to the rest, even if most people won't bother any further. Doesn't this remind you of the golden age of the steam engine.

Hey, I love steam engines. They are so cool. Yes, they're filthy, but, but, but...

... They should have no problem selling 2.8sec 3P75DLs at $100k (I will buy one) ...

Me, too. As I've said elsewhere, the only reason I don't have an S is that I cannot stomach the idea of driving a car that huge. I live alone, virtually never have anyone in the car with me, and have no use for that much space. I would totally pay $100,000 for a 2.8-second Model 3, though I don't really expect better than 3 seconds.

If the top trim line is slower than 4 seconds I will re-consider buying one. I might still get it, but I'll have to think about it.

 

[JeffK]

You were being facetious, right? Nobody actually believes it will be end up actually being $35K for the base model, right? The Model S and X, and even the roadster all cost more than promised. Heck, the price of the roadster was raised after most placed their initial orders but before production began.

There's too much to lose as far as credibility if it's anything over $35k for the base model.

 

[JeffK]

2.8 < insane mode <= 3.2 seconds
ludicrous mode <= 2.8 seconds

If the model 3 is over 3.2 seconds they are going to have to call it "mentally disturbed" mode.

 

[zenmaster]

I'm hoping for that kind of performance as well but there's no way it will only cost $60k. With those specs it will demolish $500,000 super cars.

Do you honestly believe a 0-60 time is the key metric for a super car?

 

[JeffK]

Do you honestly believe a 0-60 time is the key metric for a super car?

It's only of many, yes.

 

[strider]

I agree, but if you consider discount and depreciation factor in Elons timescale you are looking at similar inventory this time in 2019. And if they are advertising Model 3 @ 90K I am just saying its not going to look attractive. not to mention other OEM might have also entered the market.

My point is Tesla doesnt hold back on performance infact Elon had mentioned this was actually a byproduct of BEV. Its nothing they have to work too hard to do they just capitalized on the instant torque and others didnt. Tesla to me will only hold back if there was an Engineering or Physical barriers in achieving these feats. They always try to max and get the bettter out of their teslas, I dont think they will tone it done like other OEM's in the fear of getting more competitive to their own fleet of vehicles.

Then there is no difference between and ICE OEM and Tesla. the only reason why nissan leaf, bolt dont have similar performance is they are controlling the rate of discharge not incapable of. They claim it has to do with battery life, we all know though it might be true they also dont want a bolt to do better performance than a Camaro ZL1. Thats my view on Tesla. but if you think otherwise I respect that. We will know in 6 months I guess.

As @sorka stated, you cannot compare what will be a 5+ year old (and different model) car to a new one.

I agree with you. I do not think Tesla will artificially limit the performance of the 3P75DL. But I do think that they will charge as much as they can for it (like they do for the SP100DL).

Do you honestly believe a 0-60 time is the key metric for a super car?

No, but it's the only one (aside from styling) that you can use on a daily basis. Don't quote me Lightning Lap or Nurburgring times unless YOU set the time while driving said vehicle. I have spent quite a lot of time on racetracks (on 2 wheels instead of 4) and can tell you that lap times set by professional drivers are meaningless (unless you're a 15-year old kid arguing with their friends about which car is the best at X). Whereas anyone can mash a pedal at a stoplight and do 0-speed limit several times/day whether in their ICE or EV.

Finally, how many supercars ever go to a racetrack? Very few. They are mostly toys of the rich that sit in the garage and are taken on weekend drives.

 

[deonb]

Tesla Pickup. 3.3s

Just imagine...

 

[Yggdrasill]

Just imagine...

View attachment 220460

Makes it easy to unload stuff.

 

[Yggdrasill]

You're completely making up those demand/sales numbers. Who are you to say they wouldn't sell 100k at $100k USD? That is an incredible amount of performance for that price. The closest things in the ICE world start at $300k and go up from there.

The point is that Tesla intends to sell quite a few of these cars, and demand will be much higher at 60k USD than at 100k USD. I think Tesla would be more than willing to sell 1 million Model 3 per year, if demand would support it.

When you want to move a lot of product, you don't price yourself into the one percenter area.

 

[daniel]

... how many supercars ever go to a racetrack? Very few. ...

I agree. My Zap Xebra was a super car and I never took it to a track. It was super-cool, as demonstrated by all the kids who shouted "Cool car!" at me as I drove past. And all the people who took pictures of it with their phones as I went by.

OTOH I saw a car on TV (I don't have a TV but I was in a hotel) that I think they said cost ten million dollars. It came with its own pit crew. It was not street legal, so you could not drive it off the track. And it did not qualify for any race category, so you could not enter it in any sanctioned race. All you could do was take it to the track when they let regular people drive their cars. Maybe you could have an informal race with your buddies.

I'll take a P Model 3 D that does 2.8 seconds 0-60 mph for $100K over the above-mentioned car even if they gave it to me for $50K.

 

[strider]

The point is that Tesla intends to sell quite a few of these cars, and demand will be much higher at 60k USD than at 100k USD. I think Tesla would be more than willing to sell 1 million Model 3 per year, if demand would support it.

When you want to move a lot of product, you don't price yourself into the one percenter area.

There is a tried and true method for car manufacturers that involves a high end or high performance model that gets people in the door and then they buy a lower priced version. Pick your manufacturer, BMW with their M cars, MB with AMG, Audi with RS, Chevy with their Z cars, Chrysler with the R/T version, etc, etc, etc. Tesla is the same - there will be a range of configurations for Model 3.

So Tesla will sell "quite a few of these cars" but they will mostly be the low and mid level, not top of the line PDLs. That's how it works.

 

[zenmaster]

No, but it's the only one (aside from styling) that you can use on a daily basis.

Really? Can't use braking and handling on a daily basis? Can't experience driving feedback on a daily basis? The value and consequently price of any performance car - not even a supercar - is not determined by drag strip times, but rather how it's able to handle many situations at speed. Most auto enthusiast should know this.

Don't quote me Lightning Lap or Nurburgring times

Lightning lap times are set by a car magazine driver once. Nurburgring times can be set by anyone and while either are not standardized, are a good indication of relative overall performance. But the point is that it's absurd to value-compare a car against a super car based on drag strip acceleration metrics. You can slap a turbo in an old $2000 car and out drag any production car. A super car's value and point is all about holistic performance, styling, and feel. You're not paying that premium for a drag strip champion. That's why their value and price will remain unaffected by any EV or ICE with lesser performance capability.

 

[Yggdrasill]

There is a tried and true method for car manufacturers that involves a high end or high performance model that gets people in the door and then they buy a lower priced version. Pick your manufacturer, BMW with their M cars, MB with AMG, Audi with RS, Chevy with their Z cars, Chrysler with the R/T version, etc, etc, etc. Tesla is the same - there will be a range of configurations for Model 3.

So Tesla will sell "quite a few of these cars" but they will mostly be the low and mid level, not top of the line PDLs. That's how it works.

Still, your argument was that Tesla might sell 100k P75D at 100k USD. If that were the case, Tesla would sell X times 100k P75D at 60k USD. Probably at least twice as many, but also maybe five times as many. Lower price means higher demand.

(I don't think Tesla could sell 100k P75D at 100k USD, though. It will be a fairly basic car, beyond acceleration. I think people would rather go for a Model S, with such a small difference in price.)

 

[strider]

Really? Can't use braking and handling on a daily basis? Can't experience driving feedback on a daily basis? The value and consequently price of any performance car - not even a supercar - is not determined by drag strip times, but rather how it's able to handle many situations at speed. Most auto enthusiast should know this.

I can unequivocally tell you that you cannot use/experience the difference in braking and handling between a $50,000 Corvette and a $350,000 Ferrari on public roads. At any speed you can safely drive on public roads the Corvette will handle as well as the Ferrari.

Lightning lap times are set by a car magazine driver once. Nurburgring times can be set by anyone and while either are not standardized, are a good indication of relative overall performance. But the point is that it's absurd to value-compare a car against a super car based on drag strip acceleration metrics. You can slap a turbo in an old $2000 car and out drag any production car. A super car's value and point is all about holistic performance, styling, and feel. You're not paying that premium for a drag strip champion. That's why their value and price will remain unaffected by any EV or ICE with lesser performance capability.

It's about useable performance. Slapping a turbo on a $2,000 car is not usable because you will need to be a professional driver to use it (lag will be horrible, you'll need to upgrade the transmission, etc).

That was my point about lap times. Quoting professional driver lap times are meaningless. With a Tesla it's very easy to get max performance out of it, unlike an ICE. Who can sit in a Porsche or Ferrari and use all 4,000 possible combinations of suspension, transmission, engine, etc settings? It's ridiculous.

I excepted styling in my first post. That's like trying to value any other piece of art.

At the end of the day, the quickness and lack of transmission of a Tesla allows you to use the performance day to day. I can be loafing along, turn left onto a freeway on-ramp, step on it, and be rewarded w/ instant acceleration. Do the same with an ICE (even a supercar) and you'll be waiting for the transmission to downshift, turbos to spool, etc. It's in that way that a PDL Tesla is a much more compelling car than any supercar (plus I can haul my kids in it). The way that that quickness is best exemplified is w/ 0-60 times. Actually, it's best measured w/ 5-60 times but those are rarely measured (this is one of the reasons I love Car and Driver).

 

[sorka]

The point is that Tesla intends to sell quite a few of these cars, and demand will be much higher at 60k USD than at 100k USD. I think Tesla would be more than willing to sell 1 million Model 3 per year, if demand would support it.

When you want to move a lot of product, you don't price yourself into the one percenter area.

But that won't apply to the PDL models. They volume models will be the rear drive models with moderate option levels and they'll sell lots of those. The PDL versions maxed out will be be priced at the point where they maximum profit and they'll be much higher margins for these versions even though they sell far fewer.

 

[strider]

Still, your argument was that Tesla might sell 100k P75D at 100k USD. If that were the case, Tesla would sell X times 100k P75D at 60k USD. Probably at least twice as many, but also maybe five times as many. Lower price means higher demand.

(I don't think Tesla could sell 100k P75D at 100k USD, though. It will be a fairly basic car, beyond acceleration. I think people would rather go for a Model S, with such a small difference in price.)

So then you tell me why BMW M3's cost $80k instead of $40k, Ferraris cost $350k instead of $100k, etc?. Wouldn't they sell more at these lower prices? So why don't they just lower the prices and sell more?

An SP100DL is $150k vs a slightly slower 3P75DL at $100k. There are more people that can buy a $100k car than can buy a $150k car. I think Tesla would sell plenty of 2.8sec 3P75DLs at $100k.

Tesla exists to make profits. IMO there will be almost $0 profit on each $35k Model 3 (once you account for Service Centers, Superchargers, software development, etc).* Tesla needs people to buy options that have a higher profit margin built in, whether that's AP, upgraded stereo, larger battery packs, or performance models.

*Until the gigafactory is in full swing and driving down pack prices but this will take years.

 

[Yggdrasill]

So then you tell me why BMW M3's cost $80k instead of $40k, Ferraris cost $350k instead of $100k, etc?. Wouldn't they sell more at these lower prices? So why don't they just lower the prices and sell more?

They cost more to produce. If they reduce the cost significantly they won't make money.

Tesla exists to make profits. IMO there will be almost $0 profit on each $35k Model 3 (once you account for Service Centers, Superchargers, software development, etc).* Tesla needs people to buy options that have a higher profit margin built in, whether that's AP, upgraded stereo, larger battery packs, or performance models.

*Until the gigafactory is in full swing and driving down pack prices but this will take years.

Tesla seems confident they will make 20+% profit margin on the base Model 3. I believe them.

That makes the production cost of the base Model 3 around 28k USD. Add in 2.5k USD for a front drive unit, 3k USD for an additional 20 kWh, 2k USD for an upgraded suspension, 1k USD for upgraded wheels and 3.5k in assorted other costs, and voila, the production cost of a P75D is around 40k USD. Selling it at 60k USD, they'd have a 33% profit margin. Selling it at 100k USD, they'd have a 60% profit margin.